Bob asked -
Mack, I know my post the other day,
pointing out the bad decisions the Mets have made, made you want to "shoot
your head off". Your points about the Mets financial distress/stadium
costs has made me feel the same way. Just how many years will this clamp down
on the team's wallet?
Just imagine the result in just
retaining/replacing players currently on the roster over the next 5 years, if
continued. Free agent salaries continue to sky rocket. The team is reluctant to
trade any of its young talent. Players (and in the Mets case important players)
always seem to come up with major injuries every year.
And the cost of resigning our own
players will continue to sky-rocket. Just imagine, all of the prospects prosper
in 2-5 years. Best case scenario for everyone (YAY!!!!) Arbitration costs for
D'Arnaud, Wheeler, Harvey, Flores, Lagares, Parnell, Syndegaard, & Montero
combined with Wright and filling out the rest of the roster cheaply would be
too much on the Wilpon's wallet. 5 years later, Wright is in the late stages of
his career and what success will he have enjoyed?
I'm scared.
Mack – Bob, I think it’s important
for you and I to keep discussing this and make sure everyone ‘out there’
understand exactly how deep the financial problems of this team are.
Let’s forget Minaya, Sandy, and
all that. There really have been only two things done wrong. One, the Mets
built a new stadium with borrowed funds. And two, they invested both the team
and their own money with a trusted friend.
All this also happened when the
economy went into the shitter.
Now Bob, you and I both know that
we would have walked away from this after declaring bankruptcy. The Wilpons,
because of their vast ownership of New York real estate (that have rebounded
and whose value has increased well about their past debt to principal ratio)
didn’t have to.
The banks stuck with the Wilpons
as long as they made their interest payments and the value of the conglomerate
we call ‘The New York Mets’ (team, SNY, stadium) is now over $2bil. All parties involved know they could strike a
deal tomorrow based on fair market value and walk away a very, very rich
family.
So, the question remains, why not
just invest another $30-50mil a year on the team so the results on the field
bring back the fans, and the hot dogs are eaten, after the cars are parked, and… well, you know what I’m saying.
Here’s where it gets cloudy.
I don’t know why. And, I don’t
think anyone else outside the Wilpons, the Board of Directors of the Mets, and
their lending institutions know why. Sandy Alderson may not even know why. In
fact, I imagine the initial interview with him was based on the Wilpons first
sharing some confidential information with the Commissioner and asking him to
help find them someone that could help rebuilt this team with a limited amount
of money, over a 5-7 year period.
I’ve read various versions of what
other Mets writers think about this subject, especially Howard Megdal, but, in
the end, everyone just has an opinion. Is the bank limiting the amount to
invest in the operating of the team? I have never heard of that before. I
always thought all banks cared about was the final P&L statement.
Is it the Board of Directors that said
there can only be a certain amount of money spent based on the money earned?
This is a possibility.
Or is it the Wilpons that have
decided they are going to hold on to their toy even if the final product isn’t
competitive?
Bob, I just don’t know, but I do
know that things aren’t going to change for you and the other Mets fans out
there. You will always see more Matsuzaka signings and never a Tanaka to be
found.
The Wilpons continue to say that
they have no plans to sell the Mets. They also have proven that they have no
plans to operate it like the Yankees or Dodgers either. This isn’t the kiss of
death, but it does make quite a challenge for someone like Alderson.
You must use both the draft and
international free agent market as your main source of future talent, but you
can’t piss away your top draft picks by signing high end free agents. Until the
rules change (and they should when the next collective bargaining agreement is
negotiated) the Mets need to sign more Carlos Beltran type free agents and less
Curtis Granderson types.
They also need to continue to load
their affiliates up with power starters that can generate future trades for all
the other positions needed on the team. Both Minaya and Alderson have done a
great job of doing this so far and 2015 will begin a period where the Mets will
have eight viable starters (Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, Colon, Gee,
Mejia, Niese) at the major league level with seven more (deGrom, Mazzoni,
Gorski, Verritt, Lara, Robles, Tapia) with projected talent to be successful in
the majors at some role.
The MLB released their list of the
top 100 prospects in baseball last night. The Mets had three players on the
list. There are 30 teams in the league, meaning the average number is over 3.
This isn’t good enough for an organization that needs to build from within.
I’m not sure the end results of
this will be to your liking. Players will play themselves through arbitration
and head off to teams that will pay them more. And David Wright may wind up
stuck here watching everyone come and go.
Under the Wilpons, you should be
scared.
Mack-
ReplyDeleteI think there are a few things at play here and they relate as much too financial concerns as they do to public perception. Yes, Madoff destroyed their financial model. when you look at the bonilla deal the hedge was pay bonilla money then or pay him now at 5% interest or whatever it was. the idea was to put that money into madoff's hands who was returning 11% basically they were making 6% on the principle. and now this concept is gone. The wilpon's are in a fine financial position, much of the paper wealth that they had disappeared but it has come back. now access to it is different, its a cash flow issue most likely. the team itself has a high dept/revenue ratio, but if the revenue starts to improve they can renegotiate. you cant uses the Yankees/dodgers as comparisons, you should use the SF giants, who also privately financed their stadium. its a better fit, and their payroll is in the 120s, but they sell out every game.
Do i think that as the Mets team improves the purse strings will open. absolutely. do i think they are going to allow sandy to throw good money after bad absolutely not. WAR is a great stat when you are assigning value to a player, but it does little to change the impression of the overall product. its one of the reasons why so many people on the blogs are down on Cecchini. he's an overall player wo a standout tool. Personally we are desperate for a player that might hit 280 with 12 hr and good defence at ss. he might not be jeter, but he might be drew. Is Drew a better player then Tejada, at the moment sure, but will you see a tangible difference on the field, maybe in aggregate but not really. This fact means to me and to them, why bother, he's not getting you to the playoffs and 84 wins vs 82 isnt really important, in fact in the long term it might even be a negative. 11 pic vs the tenth.
I think as the met players mature and they start to win more or appear as though they should win more the payroll will rise. will it cross the 189 threshold anytime soon? no. but as they become legitimate contenders and have players that they think are worth the money it will certainly climb into the 120's and 140s. a winning team and lets not forget young players are cheap increases attendance and television rating, if the mets go from 2.1 mm in attendance to 3.6 thats about a $70 mm addition in revenue right there. all of a sudden your payroll has a lot more flexibility. Given Madoff the Wilpons had to bottom out before they could rebuild, both financially and with the team.
Everyone knows where I stand as far as this subject, and for those of you that don't "sell the damn team already". The team this year needed to start filling our holes with big time vets that could tutor the young kids, ala Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter deals of the early 80's. I would of preferred them to have brought in Cano for the same money this year that they spent on Granderson and C Young. I know it would have taken 10yrs. $240, but at $24 mil a year I think he is definitely worth it.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why I bring up Cano on this thread is because how much newspaper coverage would have been going on here in NY for the past month, a tremendous amount of coverage. It would of generated so much in ticket sales and brought this fan base to life. And most importantly it would of given D Wright the real protection he has been lacking for a few years now. They would have traded Murphy or moved him to 1st base and put MDD in right field. That would have been better money spent with more of a return at the gate, in the standings and in our everyday lineup.
I like the grandy signing as a secondary to Cano but I just feel pitchers will still pitch around Wright to get to him. I would rather face Granderson than Wright. So by signing Cano instead we would have got more of a return on D Wrights deal because he would have had a lot better numbers in the long run.
So the Wilpons don't know what to do with their ever so small payroll that they have set, that would return them best results.
The answer to the question of the title is - Of course, it will change. It has already undergone one sea change when the financial fortunes of the Wilpons and the on-field performance of the Mets reversed over a short period. The team collapsees in 2007 and 2008, (causing attendance to plunge from the 4 millon level) combined with the Madoff debacle and the real estate market/stock market crash at the same time were almost fatal blows. Prior to that time, the Wilpons were free spenders, although not cut from the same cloth as the Yankees or today's Dodgers. But a $140+ million payroll is appropriate for this team, and I strongly believe that as on-field performance improves with 2015 and after, and revenues increas accordingly, you will see payroll climb back to that level, but not all in one year.
ReplyDeleteIf Alderson has imparted anything on the Wilpons, it is that ultra long term contracts almost always come back to bite you in the ass. Will Robby Cano be worth $24 million at age 38, 39, 40? Will Sabathia be worth $25 million at 35 or 36? There are numerous examples of this, and yet some clubs are impelled to continue doing it. The Mets will not sign the Canos, the Hamiltons, the Pujolses. But they will make prudent investments in medium term deals for superior players, and they will make major investments to retain their core players like Harvey, Wheeler,and Syndergaard. Those deals are what will result in the payroll hitting $125-$140 million or more. And if they continue drafting and trading wisely, like obtaining Wheeler, d"Arnaud, Thor, Montero, Smith, etc. to fill in the holes with young, inexpensive, controllable players, this team will be contenders for several years to come.
And BTW, if you had a 1927 Model X Deusenberg, that you had restored by your own hand and that you had grown to love, sitting in your garage, would you sell it off when the stock market tanked even though you don't really need the cash to live on comfortably? Maybe some of your neighbors think you don't shine it up enough, or that you aren't that good a driver, but would those criticisms bother you terribly? Don't expect the Wilpons to sell the Mets any time soon.