How the Mets ended up 8th in payroll and 23rd in Wins since 2009 pt. 2

23. New York Mets: 374 wins (tie), $606.9 million (8th)

Matt Harvey's injury has allowed the Mets to sell 2014 as another rebuilding year, although they did sign free-agent outfielders Curtis Granderson and Chris Young and starter Bartolo Colon. The Mets have one playoff appearance in the past 13 years. I'm guessing it will be one in 14.

 Before going forward let’s look back to the 2010-2011 offseason for a minute. It’s possible that after two back-back 90 loss seasons the Wilpons would’ve fired Minaya and entered a period of financial austerity even if the Madoff scandal never happened. Under Minaya the team was on an unrealistic financial trajectory. Simply put-things had spiraled out of control for Omar-as the chart below shows.

He and the Wilpons had built a roster that was financially unsustainable and veering towards joining the Yankees in Luxury Tax Land. Before saying to yourself, ‘well, if the Madoff scandal never happened we’d have just went out and spent more money on Free Agents,’ consider this- after topping the league with attendance over 4 million in 2008, by 2010 the Mets had fallen to 8^th in the NL. The loss of gate revenue and all that comes with it combined with the expenses of paying for the new stadium created a perfect storm of negative factors independent of the Madoff scandal.  You have a major revenue stream unexpectedly shrinking nearly 50% over two years. Citi Field in 2009 didn’t give them the financial bump a new stadium usually provides. Instead team attendance continued its downward trend.

Madoff or no Madoff even if, after back to back 90 loss seasons, Omar would’ve been give one last shot to turn it around it would’ve been under different financial parameters because a) the team wasn’t as flush with cash as it had been even two seasons prior, b) after 2006 postseason appearances never occurred and with that the potential revenue they would’ve anticipated, and c) the payroll was already top-heavy and bloated with little room for any top level additions.  

2011

By this time, payroll-wise, it had become a case of the have and have nots. A whopping  $96 million is going to six players-Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Santana, Bay, and K-Rod. Along the way they’ve eaten a cool $18 mil of the Perez and Castillo contracts. That makes nearly $116 million of a roughly $120 million payroll going to 1/3 of your 25 man team. For the second consecutive year Mets payroll dropped-to around $120 million. 2^nd base, Catcher, starting LHP, RF and 1B all needed upgrading by this point. The wreck of a team Minaya left behind was now Alderson’s to deal with, just as the true financial pinch of Madoff was being felt. The 2011 team was an extremely unbalanced roster. $116 million is earmarked to six players. That leaves $25 million + if you were to go back to 2009 spending levels.   

Let’s say Madoff didn’t happen, Minaya stayed and the Mets had a budget of around $140 million, let’s bump it up to $145 million. That averages to $1.875 million per player for the remaining 18 of the 25 man. Let’s get something straight here the problem wasn’t signing any of the big six. Those all made sense, and even Bay’s is defensible. The problem is that Minaya and the Wilpons never seemed to have the foresight to see this lopsided payroll coming. It’s akin to building a towering structure atop shaky ground. Even if the Madoff scandal didn’t happen it was all going to come tumbling down. 

The scandal wasn’t a factor in the Mets poor play in 2009 and 2010. Also, by this time the upper-level of the farm system was barren so they had no real prospect-level trade chips to speak of by 2011. Going one step further, let’s say in this Madoff-less scenario in the 2010-11 offseason Minaya would’ve signed the top FA Carl Crawford along with AJ Pierzynski to catch, and Juan Uribe for 2B. If you give them contracts comparable to what they received then it breaks down like this toward 2011 payroll:

Crawford  $15 million

Pierzynski $2 million

Uribe $5.25 million

That added $22.5 million puts payroll dedicated to now 11 players at $138.5. Also keep in mind you’re entering Beltran and Reyes walk years, with Wright due a significant raise following 2012. I’m not convinced that even minus the Madoff scandal that the Mets would’ve retained Reyes. Beltran, however, probably would’ve been gone either way. If that Madoff scandal-less scenario world played out-Betran and Reyes both leaving at the end of 2011 Then could that money coming off the books helped us to pursue a Pujols or Fielder? Would we have made a run at Darvish?  It’s probable that Wright’s good friend Michael Cuddyer would’ve been added to the OF. But what of SS? You’ve just let Reyes walk so there’s a new hole to fill. Or do you keep Reyes and spiral closer to Luxury Tax land?

It’s easy to blame the Madoff scandal for the Mets falling fortunes. However, I think the problem was a lack of foresight by the front office during the 2006-08 run in projecting where things would be in the next 3-5 years. They just saw revenue and wins increasing each year, spiked by the increased monies usually associated with the opening of a new stadium-there seemed to be no plan B.

There may be too many situations and possibilities to consider but one thing is clear the Mets didn’t play any better with a high payroll under Minaya than they have with a much lower one under Alderson and Co. One of the big problems still facing the Mets is how the previous regime constructed the franchise. They never solved the corner OF or 2B problems, they made head-scratchingly bad trades, spent too much money on their underperforming support players, developed mediocre upper level prospects, and were never able to build a solid back to front bullpen after 2006. This was all compounded by injuries to Santana, Beltran, Reyes, and especially Bay.

Omar did a great job building this team for its pennant run but once it was built he hamstrung himself with a series of bad deals as well as poor minor league development and in the process creating an expensive and inflexible roster. They spent four seasons building a team as if they were one pitch away from the World Series but instead each year were sliding further and further away.

By taking all this into consideration it’s easy to see how the Mets wind up 23^rd and 8^th on ESPN’s list.