Mack’s Morning Report – 2-11-14 – Adam Rubin, Boston, Orioles, Lucy, Steven Matz

Coming Up Later - 

10 am - Christopher Soto - MM's Top 25- #20 RHSP Domingo Tapia

12 noon - Christopher Soto - Position Battles Worth Watching: Battle of the Back-Ups

2 pm -  Ernest Dove - How Competition and Youth will lead Mets to the Promised Land

Adam Rubin wrote a wonderful article (http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/80935/whats-the-best-the-mets-can-be?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) on Sunday, breaking out what the Mets have to do to finish the season at 88-74, instead of the 74-88 they have finished at the past two years.

It’s refreshing to read a positive spin on the Mets. Even my prediction post left a lot to be desired.

What I especially liked about this post was Rubin’s comments that there is a good chance that the Mets are going to give Rafael Montero a legitimate shot sometime in 2014 to be the SP5 in the rotation. We’ve got to get this ‘new Met’ thing going and players like Montero, Noah Syndergaard, Wilmer Flores, Jacob deGrom, Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Travis d’Arnaud, and Cesar Puello are the future of this team. Nothing is going to change on this team until the players in the dugout do as well.

Boston GM Ben Cherington had some comments this weekend on Stephen Drew:

“Stephen did an excellent job for us last year. He was a really solid player. He was a big part of our team. And so out of respect to him, we’ve kept a dialogue going, but at this point, we’re really focused on the guys we have on the roster. … I wouldn’t expect anything major to happen between now and when we report, at this point.”

Mack - I know we’re all sick of this subject, but what exactly happens to these guys if no one signs them? Do they reach a point in the season… oh, let’s say the day after the 2014 draft… where they can sign with the team of their choice and the team doesn’t lose a draft pick?

Orioles Rotation –

                       In terms of rotation potential, T.J. McFarland, Josh Stinson and Steve Johnson are basically the same guy, with Johnson having maybe a bit more potential. On a normally stocked major league club, one of these guys breaks camp as the longman in the bullpen, with a chance for a few spot starts. On the 2014 Orioles, sans a free agent starter, there's a non-trivial chance that each of these guys has a stint on the club and more than one of them makes some starts. Remember, the 2013 Orioles went through 14 starting pitchers, which is not an atypical number when a team doesn't have a lot of proven guys to start the year. http://www.camdenchat.com/2014/2/10/5396030/baltimore-orioles-2014-starting-rotation-free-agents

                       Mack – ‘Stinny’ was a particular favorite of mine when he played for the Sand Gnats. He asked me to write a feature about him which I gladly did. It would be nice to see him make the Orioles rotation

Pt. St. Lucie Update –

            Things did pick up a little on Monday. Head count was 48 players in camp, including Monday arrivals Ike Davis, Jon Niese, and Josh Satin. Not much formality…  sprints and basic group workout programs. Zack Wheeler and Jake deGrom threw on the mound outside the main clubhouse…

Jordan Gluck –

Overrated Prospects - What I want to do in this article is point out top prospects ranked by other people who i think are going to bust or underachieve greatly. I will be using mlb.com top 100 prospects fueled by the minds of Jonathan Mayos team… Rafael Montero P Nym - He is a player which doesn’t really have the hit or miss stuff. He is also a little undersized being only 6 feet tall. I don’t believe the quality of stuff is there to be successful in the major leagues.

Mack – This is one of the few negative things I have read about Montero. Yes, his height does come into question, but this is the first time I’ve seen him singled out as a future bust.

Scouts Thoughts On Steven Matz –

“There’s nothing about him that would suggest that he missed a lot of time.”

“The movement (fastball) was pretty consistently there. It’s late movement that makes it hard to square up. Movement is cool but late movement is awesome. That was the best thing about him by far. His fastball ability right now is definitely a couple steps ahead of everything else.”

“[He] lacks confidence in his breaking ball, which is a tweener between a hard curveball that flattens and a cutter. I’d can the cutter and rely on the development of the curveball with a hard slurve break.”

“This could be a guy in two or three years who breaks in as a starting pitcher, who maybe could stay in that role for a season or two seasons.

“He really needs a breaking ball he can rely on, otherwise he’s a lefthanded [bullpen] piece.” http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/scouting-report-mets-prospect-and-li-native-steven-matz-1.7015982

Mack – It’s nice to read all this positive stuff about Matz, especially since it is coming from the scouting community. These are the same guys that report back to their respective teams when their GM is looking for a lefthander in a future trade.

Matz main draw as a future Met is the fact he’s a left hander. The only other LHP that has any chance of making the Mets rotation in the next couple of years is Darin Gorski and he’s a long shot at best.

Niese is under contract through 2016 ($9.05mil), which seems to project perfect to a Matz plan of St. Lucie/Binghamton in 2014 and Binghamton/Las Vegas in 2015.

So… the news on Matz is positive and what he does this upcoming year may determine if the Mets look outside the system someday for a replacement for Niese when his contract runs out.

Until then, I assume Niese is safe.

Fangraphs on Ike Davis to Pirates –

                       The Mets have been dangling Ike Davis all offseason long. They weren’t able to find a match with the Brewers, because the Mets wanted more value than Milwaukee was willing to give up. Davis has been a below-average player since the start of 2011, and it’s meaningful that the Mets are so prepared to ship him off and give time to Lucas Duda. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-really-available-at-first-for-the-pirates/

Szymborski-Chat –

                       Comment From Darryl - Mets would only need to give up a 3rd rounder for Drew or Morales. Who is a better fit for them? Honestly neither seem like they’d add any more than +1 win over the incumbents, if that.

                       Dan Szymborski: Drew likely. Honestly, I think in the psoition they’re in, they need to be more concerned with what Tejada or Davis can do then eking out an extra win here or there.

            Comment From Drew - Better deal: Colon or Arroyo?

            Dan Szymborski: Colon.