Mack’s Morning Report – 2-2-14 – Matt Clark, Collette-Chat, $40mil more

Matt Clark –

            The Mets must have some intern in a back room who’s assignment is to check over the stats of all the independent leagues, be them in The States, overseas, down Mexico way, or over in the western sun. Matt Clark is the latest to flash mad skill stats, this time from one of the Japanese leagues. So, now the Mets (Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Josh Satin, Wilmer Flores) and Las Vegas (Clark, Alan Dykstra, Brandon Allen, Eric Campbell) both have four first basemen.Makes sense to me.

Collette-Chat –

Comment From Sandy Alderson - Am I going to actually pull the trigger on Stephen Drew?

Jason Collette: You would have done it already if you were doing to do so. Milking it out only gives more leverage to he and his agent as the open market could create new opportunities with injuries that happen during camp.

Comment From John - Keith Law’s rankings have names like Shipley and Dominic Smith pretty high… should I target them over guys Like Clint Fraser or Kohl Stewart?

            Jason Collette: I prefer taking a consensus route with prospects. Compare what Keith does to what other organization/sites do in their rankings and look at things from there. On Smith, he’s one of two first base prospects I’ve seen ranked in anyone’s top 100 with Singleton being the other. While other prospects could slide down the defensive spectrum to the position, I think the scarcity gives added value to Smith.

Comment From Pumpsie - True ace potential: Giolito, Bundy, Thor, Bradley, or Gray?

            Jason Collette: Bradley for me

Comment From Erik - Do you see Travis D’Arnaud providing similar stats to a 1st year Matt Wieters?

            Jason Collette: Have travisd’arnaudfacts.com been created yet? He’s capable of doing what Wieters did in 2010, but not the 2009 numbers.

Don O’Brien asked an interesting question on Sunday morning. It was after reading my statement about refinancing the team and the banks now allowing the Mets to go out and spend more moolah on the roster.

Don asked that, if the Mets now went out and spent $40mil more on the team, wouldn’t that amount be immediately recouped the very first year via ticket sales. The answer may not be that simple.

First of all, we’re too far down the free agent path to change the direction this team has already gone down. Trust me, if Sandy Alderson had $40mil more in his pocket when all of this began, you wouldn’t see him paying Chris Young $7mil+ for one year of .200 ball.

    (again... I'm no good at that 'woulda, coulda, shoulda' shit...)

The biggest problem the Mets have is the fact that players, and their agents, feel that the team is owned and run by an organization that isn’t ‘in it to win it’. There is no faith in the Wilpons and, as one agent told me, ‘ the road to the World Series doesn’t go through Willets Point’.

I look down the list of players that signed with other clubs and I can’t honestly tell you that any of them would have jumped at the chance of playing for this team, even if they could pay them their worth. You are not going to chance the feelings players like Carlos Beltran have.

Would the Mets have got involved in the Tanaka mess? Well, that’s an entire different mindset. This has nothing to do with what a player makes per season. It’s all about the length of the contract and the total dollars allocated.

The vast majority of talent on this team are not under any long term contract and are still ‘team controlled’ players; however, this is all about the change over the next three seasons.

I am sure there is a board or excel sheet somewhere projecting out where the Mets think their payroll is going in the future and, no matter how you do this, it all comes out the same. You can add new players with a ceiling of a two-year deal, and nothing more.

In 2016, 2B Daniel Murphy and RP Bobby Parnell will become free agents unless they are first signed to a future contract with the Mets. Both will already be making a considerable amount of money from the arbitration process they would have just completed.

At the same time (in 2016), 1B Ike Davis will be in his ARB-4 year, P Dillon Gee, OF Eric Young, 1B Lucas Duda, and SS Ruben Tejada will go ARB-3.

But things are about to get real expensive. Jenrry Mejia will be ARB-2 and Matt Harvey will lead a crew that includes Jeurys Familia into ARB-1.

The Mets already project Harvey’s ARB-1 numbers to mirror David Price’s and, by 2016, that could be quite the under estimated number.

And then… here comes Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard.

The point I’m trying to make is that the majority of future talent for this team is probably already in the organization, especially when it comes to pitching. The rotation alone could cost them $100mil/yr someday.

So, back to the $40mil.

Yes, I would go out right now and sign me up a quality name, even if I had to lose another draft pick. The team needs at least one more proven bat to round out the 2014 lineup. The player?  I would ‘give in’ to Scott Boras’ demands and sign SS Stephen Drew to a two or three year deal. It’s long, but not too long. He’s a good player, and fits the lineup. And, frankly, Ruben Tejada immediately becomes another trade chip.

But… I might use the rest of the money to negotiate a deal with some of my players that are already in the arbitration process. My team can’t have enough contracts like Jon Niese. They’re cheap, not super long, and very attractive in a future trade proposal.

Regarding the return of ticket sales, that simply isn't going to happen until the product on the field wins more games. The fans will return if you can get the Mets to an above .500 team, but, in my opinion, it is going to take the return of Matt Harvey to continue this team in the right direction.

You create a team that is three games out going into September, and trust me, fans will return.