Morning Report – 2-23-14 – Curtis Granderson, 2015 FA OFers, Erisbel Arruebarruena, Juan Lagares

BP pitchers this morning... Niese, Farnsworth, Wheeler, Black, Church, Edgin, Mazzoni, Leathersich, Reid


Coming Up later Today –

            10 am- Baseball Cube – Transactions

            12 noon - Top 10 LHP In 2014 MLB Draft

             2 pm –  A Quick Look - RHP - Keith Weisenburg -  Osceola (FL) HS

             4 pm -  Sean Blewett,  JD Davis, Jon Littell, Greg Deichmann


Pitchers used for live spring training batting practice on Saturday were Jon Lannon, Jake deGrom, Erik Goeddel, Gonzalez Germen, Jeff Walters, Logan Verrett, Adam Kolarek, Rafael Montero, Miquel Socolovich and Scott Rice. 

Worst Deal in Baseball –

5. Mets sign Curtis Granderson - Cost: Four years, $60 million. I get that the Mets offense was lousy last year, and Granderson makes it less lousy, but for $60 million, you have to get more than what Granderson projects to give over the next four years. Both ZIPS and Steamer see him as roughly a +2 to +3 WAR player for 2014, and the reality is that left-handed hitting outfielders of similar value were signing for a fraction of what Granderson cost the Mets. He may be marginally better than David Murphy (2/$12m), David DeJesus (2/$11M), or Nate McLouth (2/$11M), but there’s no way the gap is worth $10 million per year, plus an extra two years committed for ages 35 and 36. Granderson is getting paid like an impact player, but he just isn’t one, and the Mets could have gotten 90% of the production for 15% of the cost. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-2014-off-season/

            Mack – I just don’t see this transaction the same way.

In my opinion, the rebuilding of the Mets outfield is a three-year project. I see Granderson as one piece, another will be an additional ‘outsider’ that will be added in the 2014-2015 off-season, and the third will come from within the system.

Candidates for the ‘inside job’ include Cesar Puello, Dustin Lawley, Cory Vaughn, and Travis Taijerson. My guess right now is that Puello will win this slot though it may be a moot point the following year when Brandon Nimmo graduates.

MLBTR lists the following outfielders as free agents a year from now:

Left Fielders - Melky Cabrera (30), Chris Denorfia (34), Brett Gardner (31), Jonny Gomes (34), Tony Gwynn Jr. (32), Scott Hairston (35), Reed Johnson (38), Ryan Ludwick (36) - $9MM mutual option with a $4.5MM buyout, Darnell McDonald (35),  Mike Morse (33), Seth Smith (32), Alfonso Soriano (39), Vernon Wells (36), Josh Willingham (36), Delmon Young (29)

Center Fielders - Emilio Bonifacio (30), Franklin Gutierrez (32), Colby Rasmus (28), Grady Sizemore (32), Denard Span (31) - $9MM club option with a $500K buyout, Chris Young (31)

Right Fielders - Norichika Aoki (33), Michael Cuddyer (36), Chris Denorfia (34), Jeff Francoeur (31), Scott Hairston (35), Torii Hunter (39), Nick Markakis (31) - $17.5MM mutual option; $2MM buyout if club declines, Alex Rios (34) - $13.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout, Nate Schierholtz (31), Ichiro Suzuki (41)

Juan Lagares - 

                               Getting back to Lagares, last year his Arm/150 was almost 21. It was about 4.4 standard deviations above the average. According to the calculated r value, next year we’d expect Lagares to be about 1.4 standard deviations above the average, which would leave an Arm/150 around 6. Which would represent a reduction of about a win and a half, and truth be told we should probably be regressing more heavily since Lagares was in the outfield for barely 900 innings. As noted before, you can’t make Lagares’ arm not good. But you can make it less extraordinary, and applying regression makes Lagares’ numbers a lot more realistic.

You regress the arm stuff, heavily. You regress the range rating separately, and then you put them together. You still get a very good defensive center fielder, and maybe Lagares is better than his regressed self, but you can begin to understand why the Mets aren’t just going to hand him a regular job. His 2013 WAR is misleading. Lagares really might not be able to hit enough, because as good as he’s been in the field, he’s been that good for two-thirds of one season.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-to-make-of-juan-lagares-defense/ 

BA on LAD signee, SS Erisbel Arruebarruena –

At 6 feet, 195 pounds, Arruebarruena has clean hands, quick actions and good body control. He’s a below-average runner, but his quick first step and instincts give him good range. He has a quick transfer and a plus-plus arm with accuracy, which allows him to make throws from deep in the hole and turn 4-6-3 double plays with ease. His awareness in the field is advanced and he’s shown the ability to make the barehanded play look routine and make strong throws from different angles. Scouts have called Arruebarruena a magician in the field, and if he can hit enough to be an everyday major league shortstop, he has the potential to win a Gold Glove. http://www.sportsinjuryalert.com/2014/02/dodgers-sign-cuban-shortstop-erisbel.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.Uwf44vldVsk

            Mack – Is there a Cuban this team isn’t going to sign?

            So where are we at shortstop with the Dodgers?

-There’s the 23-yr old Arruebarruena who had a Cuban lash line of .317/.415/.495 the second half of the season.

-There’s all-star Hanley Ramirez, being paid $16mil this season, which is the last year of his current contract.

-And there is Dee Gordon, who we have talked about a number of times.

It’s hard for me to believe that Ramirez will not be a Dodger during the 2015 season, which leaves you the fact that one of these other two guys have nowhere to go.

The Dodgers are attempting to convert Gordon to a second baseman, but what about Alexander Guerrero and his $28ml contract that runs through 2017?

I’m not sure the Mets have anyone the Dodgers covert, other than the ‘Big 3’ untouchable starters the Mets won’t budge on. It’s obvious the Dodgers can go out and throw money at anyone they want, so why bother talking to the Mets, right?

Me?

I would go Jenrry Mejia or Jake deGrom for Gordon, but not Rafael Montero. I just don’t see Gordon being a big time shortstop someday.