First and foremost, I'd like to welcome my son to the world!! Alexander Stephen Brown...Watch for him on the 2034 edition of the Macks Mets top 25 Prospects!!
Can we chill out on using Spring stats as a basis for anything? Spring Training isn't what it used to be when players had to sell real estate in the off season, and then use the Spring to get back into shape...There's a lot of money at stake for these guys..they work on baseball year round. Most of the veterans are just trying not to get hurt, or working on a particular skill..The other day I saw a comment that Campbell should be starting over Granderson!!
By no means am I a draft expert...But I do a lot of reading, and try to pick up stuff from guys who are experts on the subject...I look at draft picks like scratch off tickets...High School picks are the 10 dollar tickets--you don't often get a winner, but when you do the payoff tends to be higher, college picks are like the 2 dollar tickets where you win a little more often, but you mostly just get you're two bucks back...For me, I go with the high school guy more often than not...I'm just not interested in players just because they could be here in two years...What good is that if when they get here they turn out to be Nick Evans....
The Guys I think the Mets should target this year? RHP Toukki Toussaint, or OF Michael Gettys...
If I'm Stephen Drew, I would fire Scott Boras immeditely... Boras is using this guy to prove to MLB that the qualifying offer system is unfair--(which it is...) There are several teams in the league that could use a player like Drew, and none seem interested--and what he's asking for(1 year, 14 million) is exactly the same amount he was advised to turn down, from the one team he really wants to play for...Don't get me wrong, I don't feel sorry for Drew...But Boras' job is to get the largest contract possible for his client...and Drew is going to end up playing for half of what he could have had..
About a month ago, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus ranked RHP Marcos Molina at #10 in his yearly top ten Mets prospect list. Over the next couple weeks, Most of the Mets sites out there came out with positive scouting reports on Molina--Even though they, just like you and me, surely had to "google" Molina just to figure out who the hell he is...This same thing happened last year with Amed Rosario after BA named him the best prospect in the APPY League...The bottom line is that Mr. Parks has done the Mets an enormous service here...You're going to start seeing Molina's name a lot more often..
Super two cutoff...I think we should start the season with Montero and Syndergaard on the opening day roster--Because it makes the most financial sense...If the Mets are going to sell any tickets at all this year, then they need to have Syndergaard and Montero out there as much as possible--They represent YOUTH, HOPE, and FUN...These are things you can sell...You can't sell Bartolo Colon or Dillon Gee...No little kid out there is saying to their dad "Can we go to the Mets game today Dad? I think Gee is pitching!" Don't get me wrong--I don't want to lose a year of control either, but here's the thing--Lets use Zack Wheeler as an example..If Wheeler had made the opening day roster last year, he would be arbitration eligible in 2016/eligible for free agency in 2019. So lets say, hypothetically over his first two years in the league, he proves himself to be one of the best young pitchers in the game...Instead of going into arbitration, wouldn't the Mets be better served by offering him an extension of lets say 8 years 20 million per? It would push back his free agency to 2024 (Wheeler would still only be 31). This is what smart teams like the Braves are doing as much as possible...On the other hand if Wheeler struggles over the next couple years--well then who cares about getting another season out of a shitty pitcher...To me, the only reason to worry about super two, is if you have no intention of holding on to these guys once they are in a position to make some money...which may have been the plan here from the start...
The latter point on pitching needs to be expanded. Who would you rather see at SS? Wilmer Flores learning on the job, but driving in runs or Ruben Tejada doing whatever it is they think he can do? The same applies for Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Jenrry Mejia. The latter is electrifying. The former is like watching a Japanese version of Steve Trachsel (without the same level of positive results).
ReplyDeleteI know in my heart the Stephen Drew's wife has to be screaming at him hourly about now...
ReplyDeleteI vote for Flores and Mejia - and Flores would not be learning on the job - he played 453 games at SS in the minors - and he had to know that he could be at SS this year, so I am sure he has been brushing up on the position. He just lacked range, which one high jumper commenter noted that Flores had shown increased range this spring after his taking conditioning seriously.
ReplyDeleteAnd I was the one who hypothetically suggested Campbell over Grandy - as Campbell never strikes out and gets on base a whole lot, and Grandy's favorite hobby is generating breezes in ballparks...but of course, I would like to be wrong on that hypothetical, meant to generate out of the box thoughtful discussion - I truly hope Grandy goes .250, 40, 98, and earns his large paycheck - and not .220, 20, 58 - if the latter, give me Campbell and ask for a refund.
Craig,
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on the birth of your son!
Regarding the qualifying offer system employed by MLB, I completely disagree with the notion that it is unfair. Stephen Drew is NOT one of the best 125 players in MLB, yet he was offered a one year contract at $14.1 million as part of this system. It was HIS CHOICE to decline that offer, which on a one year basis, was an overpay. Boston took a calculated risk by offereing it, and Drew took a calculated risk by declining. At that point, the "free market" will dicate Drew's value. And, his value is simply what someone is willing to pay him, it is that simple. Boras is a strong player advocate, as he should be, but the players basically want money for free with the clubs assuming all the risk. The Mets assumed all the risk on the Jason Bay contract and paid dearly, ditto on the Santana deal. I have no sympathy from Drew, based on his career earnings to date his is still in the top 1% of earners in the US. Does the attached pick hamper his individual ability to negotiate a deal, yes, certainly. But, regardless of the system and compensation method created for teams losing players, some free agents are going to be borderline guys. The league will never have FAs without compensation, as this would totally destroy competitive balance and the rich teams will always dominate. This system is in its second year. Let's see how the players respond next year. If some of these "marginal" FAs start accepting the qualifying offer, teams will adust and only offer it to the elite players. I actually like that it is a system whereby both the teams and the players need to analyze and take risks. And, when you take risks, sometimes you lose and sometimes you win. No tears for Mr. Drew here.
@ Mack,
ReplyDeleteSteven Drew made $9.5 mil last year, so if his Mrs. is bellyaching it may be time for him to find a new Mrs.
TP--Thank you sir..
ReplyDeleteIn regards to Drew, The point I was making was more about Boras, and less about the qualifying offer system...I don't like the qualifying offer system because it singles out 3-5 marginal free agents each year in a negative way..The point of the system was to compensate teams losing free agents--not to pidgeonhole 3-5 guys...That being said, He could have taken the offer, and should have--which was my point...Boras gave Drew and Morales bad advise....
Morning Reese,
ReplyDeleteIf it was my baseball team, I would start Flores at short---but then again if it was my baseball team, I would have sent him to fat camp 4 years ago, and we wouldn't even be discussing this...
The pitching is a little more complicated because of innings limits...But I would figure out a way to get Montero, Thor, and Mejia out there as often as possible...which would put us in a position where we have all these guys in 2015 with no innings restrictions...