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3/27/14

D Whit - Yet Another Look At The Upcoming Season




I enjoy viewing some of the other Met blogs, one in particular that is always bringing the doom and gloom. I sometimes wonder why most of that group over there even remain Met fans. All they ever do is bitch and complain about the team, its owners, its GM (especially the GM), SNY and just about everything associated with the blue and orange. You talk about beating a dead horse! If they’re cynical in March, I’d hate to see what level of disillusionment they will reach by June. The Mets are not the Marlins or Astros-though at this point, to be fair, those two teams look better on paper than the Mets starting 8-wise in a couple of years. But like anything else in sports all that could change. Right now let’s focus on the present though. And in the present the Mets are a better team right now than a year ago.

Or are they? 

Mike Baxter and Justin Turner have taken their act Hollywood-I’m sure TC is still shedding tears over losing that pair, especially Baxter. It was shocking to see those two names in the opening night Dodger line-up because come on if you bet someone over the winter that those two would be starters for the Dodgers (no matter how briefly) they’d take you for a fool and gladly take your cash. Only thing is you’d be fleecing them. I include this little diversion to demonstrate the WTF nature of MLB circa 2014. Flotsam and jetsam of a 74-win team now on the opening day 25 of a team expected to challenge for the pennant and World Series-a team ranking #1 in payroll to boot-the Mets are 22nd

So even without this dynamic duo the 2014 Mets look better on the field than a year ago. For one thing they are starting this season with an OF consisting of real major leaguers. They have much more starting pitching depth, and even with the loss of Matt Harvey, a stronger rotation 2-5. Last spring a loss of Jonathan Niese would’ve been devastating but this year more of an inconvenience. You’d hate to lose Niese for an extended period of time but if it did occur some combination of Meijia, Dice-K, Lannan and Torres can pick up the slack. Also let’s not forget the two studs down the farm who should be ready to bring Citi Field some hot fun in the summertime. 

Behind these starters are a host of talented young arms and in the case Valverde one old one. Parnell is still in recovery mode following neck surgery but once on track should be one of the underrated closers in the NL once again. 

The infield consists of the same starting four that manned those positions opening day of 2013, which is half All-Star and half ???. But as for one of those ? a combination of Ike, Duda and Satin should provide more than adequate production. If they fail or fall to injury there’s Campbell and Lutz in Vegas to fill-in. Both players had strong springs, with Campbell becoming a fan-favorite, dark horse to crack the opening day roster. I’m not including Flores with the 1B contingent because he’s re-learning SS and it seems the team is concentrating his work there and at the keystone, as opposed to the corners. Speaking of SS, well I’m not going to, more than enough has been said, written, spoken, screamed, cried, etc…about the realities and possibilities there. At this time well “it is what it is” I suppose. 

Last spring the Mets OF situation was the joke of MLB, a year later they are four deep with Granderson, Lagares, and the law firm of Young and Young Jr. There are some bona-fide major leaguers patrolling the pastures of Citi Field this April. It’s a vast improvement both defensively and offensively over what was trotted out there in the opening weeks of 2013. 

Behind the plate we get to see if the highly touted backstop can begin to live up to his potential and stay healthy. In the past week d’Araund’s bat has heated up, and let’s hope that is a sign of good things to come at the plate for him in 2014. If so, he will grow and help nurture what promises to be one of the most electric starting rotations in baseball from 2015 on.   

Which brings me to my final point.  The pipline of pitching prospects headed by “Thor” and Montero. How can you not be excited about that? Once Harvey went down expectations for this season had to be tempered. There’s plenty of flaws, problems, and as mentioned above, question marks about this team and upcoming season. But comparing it the Titanic or predicting a 100-loss season is pretty short-sighted and overlooks not only the Mets improved roster but, aside from the Nats, what is looking like a weaker NL East. 

One other thing to consider is that by the All-Star Break the team taking the field could look vastly different, especially on the hill. Is this a team that could win 90? Probably not, but a decent start and a mid-summer kiddie korps invasion could make this an exciting and unpredictable season for the Metsies.   

My fearless prediction? Anywhere from 78-85 wins:

The Standings:

Nats 92-100 wins
Braves 78-92 wins (really depends upon how they recover from losing Beachy and Medlin, performance of Gattis and the Upton bros.)
Mets 78-85 wins
Phils 72-85 wins
Marlins 60-72 wins

I chose a wide win-range margin because well it’s March and I’m no prognosticator. I think it’s safe to say that the more wins for the Phils and Braves, the less for the Mets. If both teams tank the Mets likelihood of 85 wins increases. But for god’s sake let’s beat the Marlins this season.


So what do you think has the promise of spring deluded me into drinking the Kool-Aid and donning the rose-colored glasses or could the Mets actually be playing meaningful games heading into September?    

7 comments:

  1. The only way I see them ascending into a winning record is if they no longer are afraid to make decisions. Give Ike Davis April and if he doesn't come around, move on. Ditto Ruben Tejada. I'd give d'Arnaud longer than that because he doesn't have as long a track record of failure as the other two. Play Juan Lagares every day until he proves to you he can't handle it (or that he can). Don't waste innings on Eric Young.

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  2. Agree with Reese, mostly. At SS, if Tejada and Q are at the April 15 tax deadline hitting a buck 60, with no extra base hits, something will need to be done, and quickly.

    Reese mentions Ike, but not Duda, while D Whit mentions both. I think it should be Duda first, then Ike - here's my thoughts:

    Chris Davis and Big Papi took years of mediocrity before they exploded as major league stars.

    Duda, including intrasquad and rehab games with his official games, had about 40 at bats and 5 HRs.

    Perhaps he is on the verge of a real step up as they were. I am not saying he will hit like either of Davis or Papi circa 2013 - but perhaps we will all be pleasantly surprised at Duda. Of course, he never should have busted it down to first on March 1 and pulled a hammy then anyway - dummy.

    Besides better conditioning this offseason for Duda, mentally and phsically, I think there has been a shift in Mets' hitting philosophy from "work the count" to "if you get an early pitch you can drive, do it." That should really help Duda, who does not hit well at all behind in counts, and often took meatballs for strike 1 last year. And Duda also not having to hit against lefties due to a platoon may well cause him to blossom this year.

    I think that "take a pitch" philosophy really messed him up - in 2011, he hit over .300 in July, and in August, and in September. That tells me there is potential not to give up on him before one more concerted try.

    Ike I just do not trust...he was instrumental in killing the 2012 and 2013 seasons early on. I thnk Mets want them both to start strong, and then Mets will try to trade Ike away before he does them in this year too.


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  3. I guess I didn't realize until about 10 minutes ago that Cory mazzoni is still on the team........thoughts?
    Bullpen?

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  4. @Ernest

    He's already been assigned to minor league camp.....Was just brought along for the game today so that Colon could pitch in a minor league one that way he wasn't facing the Nationals again.

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  5. I didn't mention Duda because of Collins man-crush on Ike Davis. Remember, he goes with what he knows, not what he thinks might work better. :)

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  6. I hate predictions.

    I said music videos wouldn't work on TV (turned down VP/Sales MTV when it was formed).

    I will say this... there will be a hell of a race between the Mets, the Phillies, and the Marlins for who finishes last in the NL East this season.

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  7. I find it hysterical (and a little sad) that espn keeps showing live look ins on Colon's minor league start, because they are bored watching this mets nats game.

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