Stephen Guilbert - 2014 Round One Draft Profiles- Tyler Kolek and Touki Toussaint

Over the coming weeks I will profile players who should be selected in the first half of the first round of the 2014 player draft. Some of these players like LHP Carlos Rodon and RHP Jeff Hoffman have little chance of falling to the Mets at #10 but they are good names to know anyway. There is no guarantee any draft prospect will turn into a good major leaguer but if I could urge you to pay attention to one draft in this decade, this is most likely the one. This is a long way of saying, all of the first round players I profile have a chance to be very good and you will likely know their names before long. Why not stay ahead of the curve? (Fantasy keeper league managers, you should pay particular attention).

Each draft article I post I will include my projected Mets pick and the projected #1 overall pick. If there is a consensus on either, I will include that as well.

I will occasionally profile a player who should be available in later rounds that I either like, think is far undervalued, or Mack has a connection to. For the next few weeks, though, it will be projected first-rounders.

March 16^th Projections:

Consensus Mets pick: None

Stephen’s projected Mets pick- HS OF Michael Gettys

Consensus #1 pick- NC State LHP Carlos Rodon

Stephen’s projected Overall #1- Rodon

Gettys' arm is so good, he would be a day 1 draft choice as a pitcher. In the outfield, it is a weapon to be reckoned with. 

I choose Gettys still at this point because the Mets prefer athletic players with diverse skill sets. There is no better athlete in the draft that I have seen. While some question the bat profile, his other tools are outstanding and in some cases, unmatched in his class. Weeks ago, few would have said he would be available at #10 but his stock has inexplicably slipped recently and right now it looks like he will be around.

Even if Rodon has a bad spring I still see him going #1. He has not had an excellent start to his season but is still the supreme talent in this draft. Right now Tyler Kolek, Tyler Beede, and a slipping Jeff Hoffman challenge him for the top spot.

Before we wrap up, here are two players that should go in the first 20 picks of the 2014 player draft. The Mets should be able to get Toussaint but Kolek is looking like a top 5 pick at this point. 

Touki Toussaint- Coral Springs HS (FL) RHP

RHP Touki Toussaint

Best guess: Somewhere between picks 7 and 15. 

Stuff: Electric fastball. Devastating curveball. Excellent movement on the fastball, good two-plane break on the curve. Velocity. Athletic. Projectable. High-impact.

Drawbacks: Young. High risk. Baseball novice (started just five years ago). Can be very wild. Needs to control all pitches better. Change needs more reps.

Look, I wanted to write an article devoted just to Toussaint. He is my single favorite player in this draft right now and if you watch even a minute of video on him you can see why. Toussaint is strong. He has wicked stuff. He is athletic, tall, and oozes that favorite scouting word: Projectability.

I also think part of the reason I like Toussaint is that he’s a bit of a wildcard. He could be a reliever or a pitcher who never figures out enough control to escape the minors. He could also be the best player selected in the 2014 draft. He could be a true ace. That uncertainty coupled with what you see come out of his hand when he’s on the mound make him a fascinating prospect to follow.

I like that he was a soccer player and is relatively new to baseball. That tells me he is very athletic and still has room to learn the game and improve (look at what Rafael Montero has been able to do from age 16 until now). I like how strong his legs are and how well he utilizes them for velocity. I love how much movement his fastball has and that he throws so hard already. Although it does not matter for his talent, I also like that he is from Haiti and hope he can open the door for more athletes to pursue baseball in the states from his side of the island. Most importantly, I like how darn good he is at throwing a baseball. It’s just simply fun to watch. My jaw has dropped on every scouting video I have watched. If you don’t believe me, see for yourself. Funny thing is, he walks a couple batters and nearly takes one's head off in this clip. And yet, this is one of the more impressive high school pitching videos I have seen. Notice the life on the fastball. Notice how well he disguises the curveball and how much it moves. One batter starts to bail and it bends back into the strike zone. Another made the catcher pin the ball with the ground and it was still called a strike. 

If Toussaint does reach his potential, he is the steal of the draft, even if a team selects him in the top 10. The fastball-curve combination is frighteningly good and Toussaint complements them with a cutter and a change that he uses sparingly.

Many will mock Alderson and his team for taking another right-handed pitcher, as it is the true strength in the Mets farm system and one of the deepest sets of RHPs in the minors. However, if Sandy finds Toussaint available at #10 and believes in his raw potential, he could end up with the single best player there.

Tyler Kolek- Shepherd HS (TX) RHP

The big-bodied Kolek should be a top-5 draft selection

Stuff: Velocity velocity velocity. Insane velocity. Four pitches. Promising slider and curve. Size. Strength.

Drawbacks: This ever-decreasing list is just down to mechanics for me. Specifically, smoothing and repeating his delivery consistently. 

Best guess: Between picks 1 and 6. 

If Touki Toussaint is my favorite player in the draft, Kolek is that guy for many other gurus. While the consensus is still Rodon for #1 overall, I have read more positive and encouraging scouting reports about Kolek than any other player, especially after his start this spring.

While Toussaint can throw in the mid-90s and touch a bit higher, giving him one of the better fastballs in the draft, Kolek was clocked last year at 99 MPH at a showcase and has been triple digits already this year. As of now, Kolek has the best fastball in the draft, in my eyes. He gets comparisons to Jon Gray whose fastball possesses just one of two 80 grades by Baseball America in their top 100 prospects (Billy Hamilton’s speed is the other). Kolek might have another 80-grade fastball.

Kolek is 6’6”, weights 250 pounds and is country strong. (He actually works on a farm. Not even kidding.) Like Gray and another comparison I like in Gerrit Cole, Kolek is strong but also packs on a bit extra. All three have no problem throwing it hard and late into games despite not being cut and a weight room junky like Noah Syndergaard (hey look, another enormous Texas righty).

Every year we talk about the first high school pitcher getting drafted #1 overall and if Kolek continues to throw 100 MPH, improve his breaking pitches, and no-hit his competition like he has through his first couple starts in 2014, he could be the guy. Jeff Hoffman has not started well and I see few scenarios in which Trea Turner or Alex Jackson pass Carlos Rodon for the number one spot. Kolek, though, could. Scouts love these tall, strong, Texan pitchers. They think Homer Bailey on the low end and Roger Clemens on the high end. I care little for comparisons but 18-year-olds who can throw 100 MPH with control and promising off-speed pitches do not come along that often. If there is one single contender for knocking Carlos Rodon off his #1 overall throne, look no further.

Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTw2X_C_iZw

Tweet me a question (@guilbs88 on Twitter) or ask in the comments.

Fun fact: The catcher Kolek throws to in the linked video above is Alex Jackson, another consensus top 15 pick. I will write more on him later. He features one of the best power bats in the draft.