Morning Report - 4-20-14 – Zack Thornton, Jacob Bukauskas, Kyle Freeland, Second Base

1962 Mets Bullpen 

Coming Up –

        11 am –  Big League Futures - Mock

         2 pm –   Top 10 3B in 2014 MLB Draft - - Updatesd 4-17-14

           5pm -  Michael Conforto, Scott Blewett , Luis Ortiz, Cobi Johnson, Matt Krook

          8pm –  OF - Jeren Campbell - Hoiman (WI) HS

Obviously, most of the chatter on the site Saturday was on the Davis-Thornton-Somebody trade right before game time. As everyone learned once again, this is just a business.

There’s a lot of speculation on the PTBNL and it has been confirmed that it is one of the Pirates 2013 draft picks. There is also a lot of Twitter chatter that it might be top draft pick, CF Austin Meadows. I would be floored if this was true, but frankly I have been floored before on what Sandy Alderson has been able to achieve via trades.

I’ve love to know the details here. Was the PTBNL the holdout? Is that why the Mets didn’t pick up Thornton in the Rule V.?


An excellent story on SS Matt Reynolds -      http://www.pressconnects.com/article/20140419/SPORTS/304190023/B-Mets-3-New-Hampshire-2-Matt-Reynolds-big-day-plate-difference?nclick_check=1    

Steve Sypa[i] on Zack Thornton:

Despite posting the numbers that he has in his minor league career, Zack has surprisingly run-of-the-mill stuff. His fastball sits around 90 MPH, but doesn't get much faster. He compliments the pitch with a change-up that features roughly a 10 MPH differential from his fastball and a high 70 MPH slider. Because of the angle that he throws his pitches and because of natural sink that he imparts in his pitches, Thornton combines a fairly high strikeout rate with a roughly 50% groundball rate for his career. One of the likeliest sources of his success is how he throws the ball- across his body, from a low ¾ arm slot. The deception that that creates certainly can be among the primary reasons for his high strikeout rate, but he doesn't seem to be all smoke-and-mirrors; his control, low line-drive rate over the course of his career (14.7%), and ability to keep the ball in the park certainly do not stem from it.

A nice piece from Perfect Game’s Frankie Piliere[ii] on a guy that could still be around when the Mets pick at #85, Notre Dame RHP Pat Connaughton. 

A great list of high school prospects by Dan Kirby[iii] of Through The Fence, including Jacob Bukauskas, RHP, Stone Ridge HS (VA):

In his last start, Bukauskas was reportedly touching 100 mph en route to striking out 18 to no walks over seven innings, allowing just one hit. He now has a mind-boggling 68 K/3 BB over 29.2 shutout innings, allowing just eight hits. The 6’-1”, 200 pound right-hander has been consistently hitting the upper-90s this spring and has been throwing harder as the weather warms up. He adds a deceptive change-up with nice fade and a tight slider. He has great command of his stuff and is looking like a good bet for the first round the way he been throwing this spring.

Evansville LHSP Kyle Freeland is quickly becoming my favorite to be picked by the Mets with the 10^th pick overall. Baseball America’s Clint Longenecker[iv] wrote this about Freeland this week:

Evansville lefthander Kyle Freeland is the sabermetric darling of pitchers from the first half of the season. He has the lowest walk rate at 1.8 percent of all batters faced. For perspective, the group average was 7.8 percent and the second-lowest rate is more than 70 percent higher at 3.1 percent (Vanderbilt righthander Adam Ravenelle and Wichita State righthander A.J. Ladwig). His strikeout rate (33.0 percent) is the fourth-highest among starting pitchers, giving him a strikeout-walk ratio of 18.8 that is more than seven times the group average (2.59). He produced these stats with a low-90s fastball and three offspeed pitches, including one of the best sliders in the class.

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[i] http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/4/18/5629806/mets-ike-davis-zack-thornton-trade-pirates

[ii] http://perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9718

[iii] http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-10-high-school-players-rise-seventh-edition/42588

[iv] http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/top-college-prospects-by-the-numbers-midseason-update/#.U1Fa62cOqEw.twitter

			G	AB	R	H	BA	OBP	OPS
MLB	Daniel Murphy		14	61	8	17	0.279	0.297	0.625
	Josh Satin		6	12	0	2	0.167	0.231	0.564
AAA	Danny Muno		15	43	8	8	0.186	0.3	0.579
	Anthony Seratelli		12	23	6	5	0.217	0.406	0.754
AA	Matt Reynolds		12	43	8	14	0.326	0.396	0.791
	Brian Burgamy		11	39	5	12	0.308	0.449	1.09
A+	Dilson Herrera		15	65	16	22	0.338	0.389	0.85
	T.J. Rivera		13	56	12	23	0.411	0.45	1.057
A	Jeff McNeil		13	47	7	14	0.298	0.382	0.914
	L.J. Mazzilli		14	49	0	9	0.204	0.255	0.499
	Jorge Rivero		4	14	2	1	0.071	0.133	0.205

We posted up yesterday the stats for all the first basemen in the system. Today, we move on to second base and I’m including some thoughts on what the Mets might do here as the season goes on.

First, and most important, there is no one in the system that’s going to take Daniel Murphy’s job away this season. Both Danny Muno (.186) and Anthony Seratelli (.217) are playing at sub-par levels and, frankly, are close to being in the way for progress to continue within the system (one thing worth noting about one difference of the Minaya system and what Alderson does… Minaya close to never demoted a starter from one level to another… Alderson has already done that multiple times... you either produce under him or you get out of the way…).

One good thing for Muno and Seratelli is the fact that the two players that suit up for second in Binghamton, only Matt Reynolds (.326) would have any projection to Queens. Brian Burgamy (.308) is a utility AAAA player who, right now, is having a very good season. Reynolds, who also plays shortstop, would be your logical move eventually in Las Vegas and could be moved soon due to pressure from both T.J. Rivera (.411) and Dilson Herrera (.338) in St. Lucie (actually, Herrera is getting most of the glove time at second while the Mets are currently experimenting with Rivera at first).

Lastly, L.J. Mazzilli (.204) is off to a slow start in Savannah, while Jeff McNeil (.298) is definitely holding his own when his name is called. McNeil also plays third, while Jorge Rivero (.071) is hanging on by a thread.

Summation: Everything here will happen when the Mets decide when to move their ultra-prospect Herrera. He’s the future second baseman of this team and yet, Rivera could get the seniority call to Binghamton.

There’s no rush… Herrera is only 20 years old, and at least two years away from Queens, but it is getting expensive to keep going throught arbitration process with Murphy.

My guess: He finished 2014 with Binghamton

                He plays 2015 with Binghamton and Las Vegas

He starts in Queens after Murphy hits the free agency          market