One of the frustrations of Mets fans throughout the whole
Sandy Alderson/Terry Collins era is their inertia when something needs to
change. If you thought it was bad when
things were not going so well, the
inertia is likely going to be far worse now that the team is off to a
surprisingly positive start.
Exhibit one would be the lack of attention paid to the
shortstop situation. It was clear both
during the season and during the off-season that Ruben Tejada was not the
answer, yet the inertia took hold and nothing was done. There were multiple external options via free
agency, multiple options via trade and (lowest probability) internal
development of your own players.
Exhibit number two is the recently resolved 1st
base situation. It was crystal clear to
everyone from the casual fan to the sportswriter to baseball professionals that
it was an untenable situation to have two lefty sluggers who were relegated to
platoon duty with the suddenly offensively impotent Josh Satin. Was anything done to keep this circus from
bleeding into the start of the season?
No. In fact, it was only solved
when a roster decision had to be made with Chris Young returning from the DL. With his back against the wall, Alderson
finally blinked.
Exhibit number three is the construction of the
bullpen. While no one could anticipate
the Tommy John surgery for him, it was clear that the neck situation was
prolonging his return to normal baseball activities. He also had Josh Edgin coming off an injury
and Scott Rice coming off an injury. Did
Alderson find young, promising pitchers who could support what was arguably one
of the weakest bullpens in baseball? No,
he did what he always does – tried the over-the-hill, lightning-in-a-bottle
approach by picking relievers off the scrap heap that no other team deemed
worthy of extending a contract.
Interestingly, he had the chance to pick up the surprisingly valuable
LaTroy Hawkins during the off-season for very modest money but passed, only to
pay for Jose Valverde later. Valverde
was coming off a downward trend in his career, unlike Hawkins who was coming
off positive results when he was secured for just $1 million in 2013. How is that $1.5 million delta between their
salaries looking right now? While I
understand the buy low/sell high concept, when a player crosses a certain age
it’s entirely possible the low is the result of burnout after many years of
success.
Speaking of which, the jury is still out on Kyle
Farnsworth. He started off impressively
but in his last two appearances has given up runs. His velocity is way down and already some
people are calling for Daisuke Matsuzaka or Carlos Torres to take over as
closer.
Now comes the scary part…the team is doing well. If they didn’t make changes when there was
nowhere to go but up, what is the probability they will make proactive changes
to improve the roster? What have we seen
in propelling the team towards a positive future? Well, they added 40 year old one-dimensional
pinch hitter Bobby Abreu to replace young one-dimensional pinch hitter Ike
Davis. They brought up K-machine Kirk
Nieuwenhuis who has already whiffed 7 times in just 18 ABs. They continue to play a leadoff batter who
can’t get on base. They refuse to put Lucas
Duda (who leads the club with 4 HRs) in the cleanup slot.
Now in some cases, we have to accept what we have. David Wright’s power will come around. Curtis Granderson will continue to play due
to the size of his paycheck. Travis d’Arnaud
is improving every day. Daniel Murphy is
solid.
However, take a look at what the St. Louis Cardinals did
today. They had a player for whom they
had higher expectations named Kolten Wong demoted to the minors as he was hitting
in the .220s with just 5 RBIs. That’s
how a winning club does business. They
see a problem and they try to change things to improve.
By the way, our shortstop is hitting a robust .197 with but
4 RBIs yet no one in the Mets’ collective brain trust seems to have a problem
with it. Granted, the in-house options are pretty slim
but there were and are other avenues to pursue to address this deficiency.
However, I’m not sure Mr. Alderson can be trusted. When we feature the worst offense in all of
baseball, he trades a hitter (who needed to go – no problem with that part) for
a pitcher and a PTBNL who, even if he’s a star slugger in the making, won’t be
able to help for the foreseeable future.
Did he not notice that the organization is rather deep in pitching…that
pitching is why there is a winning record thus far, and that the only hitter who thus far this year is not posting substandard
(and often embarrassing) stats is the currently injured Juan Lagares?
So the question I pose to you is if you were the GM, how
would you go about addressing these issues to improve the team?
My recommendation for solving three problems at once:
ReplyDeleteTrade for a shortstop who can lead off. That achieves three positive steps forward:
Tejada to the bench
Eric Young to the bench
Chris Young/Lagares/Granderson every day
Reese,
ReplyDeletePerhaps it was Pittsburgh that blinked and not Sandy. Depending upon the 2nd prospect we get this could work in our favor. Strong reliable relief pitchers and a new Shortstop that can hit are on my wish list for Sandy .
What if the Mets wait - and end up trading for Joc Peterson(?) from LAD and Tulowitski from the Rockettes? We'd then be happy they waited.
ReplyDeleteI do particularly agree on one thing - not signing Hawkins was bewildering, a real mistake. Maybe the Crazy Glue holds the current pen together until the Mets need to call up a Black and/or a Carreno. Or Montero, who was great for 3 innings until a painful 4th last nite.
On another topic, an article idea for you guys would be the optimum time to swing. In that regard, I looked just at Duda, but this may also be applicable to other Mets. Duda in 2011 only made out in unfavorable (0-1, 1-2, and 2-2) counts 32% of the time - that is, when the count was 1 and 2, the next pitch he made out on. Overall, in 2011, he hit .292, but far lower when he made out in those counts.
This year, he is hitting better than last year, and that "ending an at bat on an unfavorable count %" is slightly worse (at 35%) than what he did in 2011, his best year.
However, last year, when he only hit in the .220's, his unfavorable count rate was a pathetic 46%. In at bats when he ended his at bat when in those pitcher's counts, in those 46% of his at bats, he hit a putrid .130.
Simply put, Duda is awful when he takes good first pitch strikes. The key to his success is to get that bad count % down to 30% max - by being aggressive against good early pitches.
The fact that his % is much improved this year over last (35% in 2014 vs. 46% in 2013) is very promising. The fact that he will hit against few lefties also helps his chances of success greatly. As a result, I think he will do very well this year.
I wonder how that sort of analysis applies to any of their other Mets' hitters?
Two other thoughts - the criticism of first base needs to be tempered by realizing that first base offensive production is better than David Wright and far better than Grandy so far. And the pitching the team faced in April should be tougher than May's pitchers, so the first base platoon may just look good and viable by Memorial Day, over a far more meaningful streych of the season.
ReplyDeleteIf, before the season started, anyone told you that Grandy and Wright would be hititng a combined .205 with 2 HRs at the end of April, what would you have guessed the team record would be? I'd have guessed 7-19. Smoke and mirrors - and great starting pitching
I couldnt agree more on SS and relief P..I have a feeling Aderson has grandiose ideas to fill SS which is maybe why a quick fix (Drew) wasnt signed, maybe Drew will accept a one-year deal once a draft pick doesnt have to be forfeited.
ReplyDeleteIm dying for a bullpen arm, i think the easist fix would be on the other end of a salary dump closer then everyone could slide a notch and maybe VBlack or someone young steps up..
Duda 4th vs righties maybe because he hasnt quite been a rbi machine so im not as sold as eveyone else. I actually like CY there i think it works right now until Grandy heats up. And Murphy should bat 2nd ALWAYS...keep winning metsies . . . . .
If this team--THIS team, as currently constructed--wins the World Series, you'll still be complaining. That seems to be what you live for.
ReplyDeleteReese-
ReplyDeleteI won't go as far as Stubby, but I do think much of your unhappiness and impatience is unwarranted. Firstly. all trades must be two sided. If all was under Alderson's control, Ike would have been traded a long time ago. He held off because he felt the only returns he was being offerred were inadequate. And now, he didn't blink. He finally got what he considered value. I strongly feel that when we see the PTBNL we will be happy. (At least, most of us will.)
A minor correction - our shortstop is hitting .221 with 6 RBI. Now that's not much better than the .197/4 you quoted, and I'm not sure when you penned this article. He may, indeed, have been hitting .197 at that time. Nonetheless, Tejada has hit over .300 in his last 10 games, raising his avg. 43 points from a season low .178 on April 18. Alderson is apparently giving him a chance to prove himself, and lo and behold, he might just do it. And if her falters, Flores has been playing a very credible SS and he has begun hitting too. Since 4/15 Flores is hitting .308. A Flores call up may be in the wind, and what you called the lowest probability option may actually turn out to be the best. After all, Nick Franklin, who many of us were clamoring for in a trade, is no better that Flores in he field. Neither Chris Owings nor Brad Miller was apparently made available. And the D-Backs don't seem willing to part with Gregoriius, not that he is a sure bet to be better than Wilmer. So as always, that brings us back to Drew. I really wanted Sandy to bite the bullet and sign Drew, and he still may, if the other optiuons are exhausted. But in retrospect, perhaps there is a good reason for not signing him, the draft pick and Scott Boras notwithstanding. After all, even the free spending Yankees, clearly in bad need of middle infield help and an eventual successor to Jeter, passed on Drew. So maybe Alderson knows what he is doing.
As far as the bull pen is concerned, we all know that signing relievers is a crap shoot. And hindsight is always 20-20. So right now, Hawkins does look more than $1.5 million better than Valverde. But the bull pen, like much of the rest of the team, is still a work in progress. So lets cut Alderson some slack. He has from now until the July deadline to take whatever actions are needed. I think we are all in agreement that Alderson's patience was royally rewarded in the Beltran and Dickey situations. I, for one, am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding the pace with which he has moved thus far.
Today the media is running with the old "anonymous source" story that the Mets feel Flores can't play SS at the major league level. So where does that leave us?
ReplyDeleteI'm the first to admit I was shocked and pleasantly surprised that the Ike Davis trade was made. Whether or not it was the right move, it's too soon to tell, but I penned a column praising Alderson for finally doing something. I doubt it was Pittsburgh who blinked because the Mets had a roster crunch with Young returning. Maybe it was all just coincidental timing. We weren't in on the phone calls.
What I'm looking for is similar action to improve in other areas -- shortstop and bullpen in particular. As I said in my initial comment, a shortstop who can lead off and steal some bases is the prescription for what ails the team. I certainly wouldn't turn down a Tulowitski offer but I think his price tag is a pipe dream for anyone not from the Bronx or Los Angeles.
Would you trade a Noah Syndergaard for Javier Baez of the Cubs? Would the Cubs hang up on you if you offered that kind of deal? He hit 37 HRs in the minors last year playing SS. Frankly the Mets have the pitching depth to put together that kind of deal -- or it could be any of the following:
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article/cle/xander-bogaerts-heads-list-of-mlbcoms-top-10-shortstop-prospects?ymd=20140113&content_id=66482416&vkey=news_cle
While theoretically moving Colon and C. Young at the ASB makes sensse, more A prospects are an OK thing but it doesn't improve the club now. We've been waiting 'til next year for many, many years now and frankly my patience, as has been suggested, is wearing thin.