Stephen Guilbert - Analysis of the PTBNL in the Ike Davis Trade

Young RHP Neil Kozikowski  the PTBNL in the Davis trade

The player to be named later, the “PTBNL”, in the Ike Davis swap with the Pittsburgh Pirates is most likely a player drafted by the Pirates in the June 2013 draft. While a team can use a PTBNL structure for added time to evaluate a player number of players, use it for roster flexibility, or wait for a player to return from injury, the most likely case here is that the Mets are forced to wait until after the 2014 draft (when the player has been with a squad for a full year) before acquiring a player via trade. That leads me to believe the PTBNL is a ’13 draftee.

Matt Cerrone of Metsblog, as most of us, want young outfielder Austin Meadows in return. A recent rumor, and purportedly a young pitcher the Mets scouts really like, involves HS RHP Neil Kozikowski, their 8^th round selection.

Which players are realistic returns for Ike and what can they provide for the system? Many have reported that the PTBNL is “significant”. The same was reported last year and that player turned out to be RHRP Vic Black. Let’s take a look at who it could be.

Here are the first ten rounds for the Pirates last year:

1.) Austin Meadows- HS OF and Reese McGuire- HS C

2.) Blake Taylor- HS LHP

3.) JaCoby Jones- College CF

4.) Cody Dickson- College LHP

5.) Trae Arbet- HS SS

6.) Adam Frazier- College SS

7.) Buddy Borden- College RHP

8.) Neil Kozikowski- HS RHP

9.) Chad Kuhl- College RHP

10.) Shane Carle- College RHP

At this point, no one can say for certain who the PTBNL is or where in the draft they were selected, however, we can narrow it down to a few based on the return (Ike), the Pirates’ system, and, to a degree, the Mets system. GM Sandy Alderson and company always go for the best player they can get, so while I do find it tougher to think they would choose a collegiate righty (Borden, Kuhl, Carle), we also cannot completely rule them out with any confidence.

I consulted with Michael Rodgers over at Buried Treasure to get his take. Here is what he had to say and, below, thoughts on the players in first ten rounds and their odds of being the PTBNL.

Stephen Guilbert: What do you make of the Ike trade? I figure the PTBNL is from last year's draft class. Which player could the Mets have picked? I'm thinking JaCoby Jones. You? 

Michael Rodgers: My guess would be more Cody Dickson or Buddy Bordon. Maybe that's just because that's I don't want it to be Jacoby Jones or Blake Taylor.  I think Jones is least likely simply because the Pirates have a plethora of interesting lower level mid-tier pitching prospects, while they are thinner on athletic, toolsy positional players like JaCoby.

I've never really been a huge fan of Davis. He's got pop, but he clearly requires a platoon and we're only talking about a career .359 OBP and a career 129 wRC+ against RHP. That's more than solid, but this is also 1B we're talking about.

I would be upset about moving Blake Taylor. I just think that's an overpay. I hope it's Dickson. I think he's a good prospect and around an appropriate price for Davis, but I wouldn't be shocked about Taylor.  It could, of course, be Jones, but I briefly explained why I think the Pirates would rather move one of their pitching prospects.   Bordon probably isn't enough.

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Here are the choices. I have added Michael Rodgers’ take on a few of the players in italics.

1a- Austin Meadows- OF- HS

I see no instance in which the Mets plucked Meadows from the Pirates. Mets fans can dream, but the return for Ike is not big enough to get a player Meadows’ caliber. He is a top 50 prospect in baseball in my book and within the top few in a very strong Pirates system. He has five tools, still has projection, and was atop the draft wish list for the Mets before he was taken a few picks before we had a chance to get him.

1b- Reese McGuire- C- HS

Same story here. While it would be great to get an elite defensive catcher with a projectable bat for Ike, I do not think it is going to happen. McGuire already possesses some of the best defensive tools in the minors, hit well last year (albeit for little power) and still has growth and projection left. Pirates are keeping him around for a while.

2- Blake Taylor- HS LHP

Here is where it gets interesting. This is the guy I really want who I also think we can get. Live fastball, excellent curve, and fits the “significant” tag that has been placed on the PTBNL. While I agree with Michael that this would be overpaying for Ike, Sandy has a track record for getting “his guy”.

Here are Michael’s thoughts on Taylor:

MR: “2nd round pick. Prep lefty with a low 90's fastball. Solid amount of projection, although he's already fairly well built. Super young. He did not turn 18 until after being drafted and signed. Flashes a plus curveball and has a good feel for a changeup”.

3- JaCoby Jones- College OF

Tall, strong, and athletic, JaCoby Jones has all of the tools to be an impact player. 

The Mets still have a system weakness in the outfield that will be compounded if Curtis Granderson is regressing as sharply as the early season suggests. Jones is extremely athletic and has the raw tool set that make you drool over a player. He certainly is not without his weaknesses and he would be a bit of a lottery ticket but this would still be a very nice return for Ike. Oh, and he also can get to first base from home in 4.1 seconds. That is fast. 

MR: “3rd round pick. Elite recruit who actually made it to LSU's campus.  Has teased scouts for years with fantastic athleticism and tools.  Still very raw at the plate.  He can play all over the diamond, including SS and CF. Could be a star in the major leagues, but is way more likely to never make it past Double-A.  The mid point would be a marginal utility player”.

4- Cody Dickson- College LHP

I would be fine with Dickson as well and the Mets certainly could use a good lefty starting pitching in their mid-minors. While Taylor certainly has more projection and most likely and eventually more talent, he might also be too expensive. If so, Dickson should be the guy if the Mets are looking for a pitcher.

MR: “Cody Dickson - 4th round pick. College lefty out of Sam Houston State has plus velocity for a southpaw. Even as a college pitcher, he's got a projectable frame. A curveball and changeup round out Dickson's arsenal, and at his best he has two plus pitches (fastball and curve) and an average third pitch (change). That's the upside. The downside is Dickson has mechanical issues which have made it difficult for him to find the plate in college”.

5- Trae Arbet- HS SS

The reason the Mets would look here would be to add another very good up-the-middle athlete. Frankly, there is a lot of Gavin Cecchini in Arbet’s scouting report: Very athletic, can stick at shortstop, good hit tool, strong arm, the right size for shortstop and should hit enough if moved to second. My gut tells me that Arbet is not the guy but he would not be a bad return, either.

6- Adam Frazier- College SS

Where Arbet is projectable, Frazier is not. However, he does enough well on the diamond that he should be a major leaguer some day. However, I see him as a utility infielder and considering the other higher impact talent the Mets could get, I doubt they add Frazier to the system.

7- Buddy Borden- College RHP

I disagree with Michael. I think partially it is wishful thinking that Borden is the guy and he looks like a fine pitcher. However, the Mets system is already loaded with arms like this. He’s old for his league and handling it just fine, but the Mets literally have SP logjams on every team in the system and Borden would not stand out on any of them. I will more than tentatively rule this one out.

8- Neil Kozikowski- HS RHP

When I researched and then described Kozikowski to a friend, I said Northeast “Casey Meisner”. The Mets draft team certainly does like tall, lanky, projectable, good fastball youngsters like Koz (can I call him Koz?)

The rumors around Koz started with a tweet from John Harper suggesting that he would be the PTBNL. No one knows the veracity of the rumor but Harper’s well connected and the word is that the Mets scouting team have liked him for some time. This may be the guy.

Draft guru Jim Callis says he has the most upside in the group of pitching prospects the Pirates took in the late single-digit rounds due to his “projectable frame and low-90s fastball”.

The Connecticut righty is still in extended spring training but last year he handled the GCL well, pitching to contact and posting a 2.63 ERA in 24 innings and walking only 3 batters.

Here’s a quick scouting report from piratesprospects.com after he was drafted:

“The right-hander wasn’t on the radar in any top draft prospects rankings, but seems like the type of projectable arm the Pirates love. He’s 6′ 4″, 180 pounds, and throws 86-88 MPH but has touched 92. He throws from a 3/4 arm slot, and has a projectable frame, which could give him added velocity in the future. He also has a good changeup, a solid slider, and a cutter.”

Koz is also a very young draftee who will not be 19 until next month. There actually is some positive correlation to a player's age on draft day and future success, for what it's worth. 

9 and 10- College RHPs Chad Kuhl and Shane Carle

For the same reasons I cannot see Borden being the PTBNL, I cannot see Kuhl or Carle being the guys either. All of them are going to be pitching somewhere in A-ball and looking to advance to AA by the year’s end. That’s the territory of our Bowmans, Laras, Tapias, Matzes, Robleses, Ynoas, etc. and I just do not see these guys or Borden improving those squads. If they were lefties, perhaps I could understand it better. That’s also why Cody Dickson is a candidate. It’s not these two, though.

Here are the odds as I see them:

Very Likely- Koz. He gets this spot to himself because of the Harper tweet.

Possible- Jones, Dickson

Less possible, but still a chance- Taylor, Arbet

Not enough for Mets- Calre, Kuhl, Borden

Too expensive for Bucs- Meadows, McGuire

The Pirates had the best draft class in 2013, according to many industry experts. I agree. This class is loaded. Look, we just talked about eleven potential players that could be the PTBNL and I see 6-7 of them as potential impact players, including two blue chips in Meadows and McGuire. That’s really impressive. Considering Meadows and McGuire are going nowhere, I am gunning for Jones or Dickson and would be content with Koz.

Thank you again to Michael Rodgers over at http://buriedtreasurepirates.blogspot.com. Be sure to give that site a visit and check out what our colleagues across the state line (and then some) are doing. They are an excellent drafting team and we’ve matched up with them on two trades in eight months. Their system is still impressive even after a few trades to make a post-season run last year.

Stay tuned for the PTBNL. I imagine it will be announced a day or two after the 2014 draft in early June.

--Stephen