Coming
Later Today –
9 30 am – Herb G
– Minor League Report
11 am - Ernest Dove - Mets Bullpen Finally Takes an Exciting/Electric Turn.
11 am - Ernest Dove - Mets Bullpen Finally Takes an Exciting/Electric Turn.
12 30 pm – Reese Kaplan - Have the Nasty Boys Arrived in Queens?
3 pm - 2015 Draft Profile - OF - Daz Cameron - Eagle's Landing (GA) HS
3 pm - 2015 Draft Profile - OF - Daz Cameron - Eagle's Landing (GA) HS
6
pm – Alex Faedo, Touki Toussaint, Carlos Rodon, Trea
Turner, Matt Imhoff, Tyler Kolek
With the
MLB Rule 4 Draft Upcoming 6 days from now, we will be prepping our annual
mid-season prospect listing.
Please
take note of the following players:
Graduating
from List
RHSP Rafael Montero
RHSP Jacob DeGrom
IF Wilmer Flores
Stock Up
C Kevin Plawecki
LHSP Steven Matz
CF Brandon Nimmo
2B/SS Dilson Herrera
LHRP Jack Leathersich
RHSP Robert Whalen
Stock Down
OF Cory Vaughn
RHSP Michael Fulmer
3B/LF Dustin Lawley
OF Travis Taijeron
RHSP Chris Flexen
RHSP Cory Mazzoni
3B/1B Aderlin Rodriguez
MLB.com
has moved SP Matt Koch into the top 20 Mets
prospect list (at #20). They highlighted:
Scouting
Grades: Fastball: 60| Curveball: 50 | Cutter: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 |
Overall: 45
Though
Koch was used primarily as a reliever during his college career at Louisville,
the Mets moved him to the rotation in his first full professional season. He
pitched well as a starter at Class A Savannah, posting an incredible 68-to-4
strikeout-to-walk ratio in 82 1/3 innings in 2013.
Koch's
fastball sits in the low to mid 90s and showed even more velocity when he came
out of the bullpen. His cutter is the best of his off speed pitches, though all
his secondary pitches have the potential to develop into solid
Stat
line for the season is impressive: 8-starts, 6-0, 2.83, 1.11… and then it goes
strange: 47.2-IP, 18-K.
He’s
a 3rd rounder (2012) out of Louisville who is playing 2014 as a 23-year old. My
guess is the Mets will move him along to Binghamton before the season ends.
Cam-Chat
–
Comment
From Theo Epstein - With the logjam in the outfield for the dodgers who do you
see making a deal for Joc Pederson? With him
currently hitting in the PCL what chances would you give his power making an
impact in major league parks?
Dave
Cameron: I think the Dodgers will keep Peterson and trade Matt Kemp this summer.
Comment
From Alex - Interesting. Who do you think WANTS Kemp?
Dave
Cameron: I think that the Dodgers could generate interest if they either took
on a bad salary coming back or picked up enough of the deal.
Mack – Hmm…
What if Bartolo Colon keeps producing 70% quality starts this season? Would the
Dodgers, who always are looking for quality pitching, be interested in taking
over the $11mil the Mets owe him in 2015, in return for the Mets picking up the
remainder of Kemp’s contract?
$21.75mil
through 2019
Look, the guy is 29 years old and what you would call a real
deal outfield star. Yeah, he’s not having the greatest year so far (43-G, 5-HR,
13-RBI, .262/.325/.450/.775) but these kind of numbers are what the Mets good
stat lines look like.
It would have to take more… Juan Centeno would make a great back-up catcher in LA… you’d have to include
either Jake deGrom or Zack Wheeler… and maybe one of the baby
pitchers in A+/A-ball.
Your 2-15 outfield would be Kemp, Juan Lagares, and Curtis Granderson, which I think would be a step
in the right direction.
I
can dream about outfielders like Matt Kemp all
day; however, the bottom line is we still have to deal with the reality that we
wound up exactly with the kind of team we expected… a bunch of great pitchers
and solid field play.
Mets
pundits didn’t take long to see the benefit of the newly aligned back end of
the pen. Vic Black, Jenrry
Mejia, and Jeurys Familia have all calmed
down the critics almost overnight. Nobody in Mets-World has had any complaints
about what the Mets have done in the first five innings. It’s after that when
hell has broken out.
I'm not that big on reliever ERAs. They simply don't pitch enough innings to be evaluated this way. Take Josh Edgin. His ERA could go up three points with one run.
I also don't like to evaluate relievers individually. I see it as a team effort.
On Tuesday, Jon Niese departed after 5.2 innings with 2 runs charged to him. The pen went on to pitch 3.1 scoreless ball and the Mets won 4-2.
On Wednesday, Bartolo Colon left after 7.1 scoreless innings. The pen then went on to produce 1.2 more scoreless innings and the Mets won 5-0.
So, in my world, even if the pen gave up a run on Tuesday and a couple more on Wednesday, they still would have a +2 rating for the two days. The team won and the pen didn't cost them a victory.
I'm not that big on reliever ERAs. They simply don't pitch enough innings to be evaluated this way. Take Josh Edgin. His ERA could go up three points with one run.
I also don't like to evaluate relievers individually. I see it as a team effort.
On Tuesday, Jon Niese departed after 5.2 innings with 2 runs charged to him. The pen went on to pitch 3.1 scoreless ball and the Mets won 4-2.
On Wednesday, Bartolo Colon left after 7.1 scoreless innings. The pen then went on to produce 1.2 more scoreless innings and the Mets won 5-0.
So, in my world, even if the pen gave up a run on Tuesday and a couple more on Wednesday, they still would have a +2 rating for the two days. The team won and the pen didn't cost them a victory.
The
Mets had only 13 hits on Tuesday and Wednesday, but they also only gave up a
total of two runs. All the SABR stats in the world don’t change the one basic
premise in this game… if you score one more run than the other team does you
win the game.
Going
into Thursday’s game, the Mets were 10th in team ERA (3.75), in the
National League. They also were ranked 8th in producing runs. Doesn’t
sound like they needed a new batting coach, does it?
Oh,
did I tell you they are dead last in slugging percentage (.353)?
This
is Sandy’s kind of game… singles and walks. In his defense, he tried to add
some juice to this lineup with Chris Young and Curtis Granderson, but that doesn’t seem to be
working.
I
have no control on who takes the field for this team, but let me say it one
more time… you put together a starting rotation that gives up three or less runs
in seven innings… and you put on the back end of that pitching staff three or
four exciting, young, power arms… you will win enough games to get to the
playoff.
So,
did this continue Thursday night?
Zack Wheeler was fantastic until the last pitch he threw (which would have been an out at CitiField). He left the game after 6.1 innings pitched, with a 4-1 lead. Scott Rice threw one pitch for the second out in the 7th and Vic Black finished the inning up on three pitches
Black followed that with a perfect 8th (boy, was his curve on...) and Jenrry Mejia closes it out.
Final stats... 3 games... 21 hits. 13 runs... gave up 3 runs... bullpen gave up 0 runs... and a +3 ratio for the three games.
This folks, is your 2014 Mets baseball.
Zack Wheeler was fantastic until the last pitch he threw (which would have been an out at CitiField). He left the game after 6.1 innings pitched, with a 4-1 lead. Scott Rice threw one pitch for the second out in the 7th and Vic Black finished the inning up on three pitches
Black followed that with a perfect 8th (boy, was his curve on...) and Jenrry Mejia closes it out.
Final stats... 3 games... 21 hits. 13 runs... gave up 3 runs... bullpen gave up 0 runs... and a +3 ratio for the three games.
This folks, is your 2014 Mets baseball.
Eno-Chat –
Comment
From Lewie - Do you think the Mets “should” be perennial contenders? (Given
that they play in a massive market, and if they didn’t have poor owners.)
Eno Sarris: Once they build a sustainable approach in
the minors, yes. Look at the Braves, with a terrible TV deal (worst in
baseball) and 85 million pay rolls. Mets could 110-120 every year.
I found Eno’s comment here
interesting.
Frankly, the only thing Sandy Alderson has been able to
control is the last three years and, if you take a close look at the trades,
signs, and draft picks in the lower levels, someone could be doing a lot worse:
Some (who did I miss, Thomas?) playing the best this season
are:
C – Travis d’Arnaud – Mets starting catcher
Kevin Plawecki – AA - .338
1B – Dominic Smith – A - .272/Matt Clark – AA - .316
2B – Dilson Herrera – A+ - .321/L.J. Mazzilli – A - .265
SS – Phillip Evans – A+ - .272/Gavin Cecchini – A - .259
Matt Reynolds – AA - .347
3B – Jairo Perez – A+ - .339 / Jeff McNeil - A - .329
OF – Brandon Nimmo – A+ - .339/Kyle Johnson – AA - .319
SP – Noah Syndergaard – Mets top prospect
Matt Koch – A+ - 2.83/John Gant – A – 2.49
Kevin McGowan – A – 1.57/Ricky Knapp – A – 3.12
Robert Gsellman – A – 2.48/Dario Alvarez - A – 1.50
RP – Vic Black – on Mets roter
RP
- Jack Leathersich – AA– 2.49/Randy Fontanez – A+ -3.16
RP – Paul Sewald – A+ - 1.33/Tim Peterson – A – 2.66
RP – Cory Satterwhile – AA – 1.71/Robert Coles – A – 1.66
RP – Jon Velazquez – AA – 3.74/Tyler Vanderheiden – 0.79
Hi Mack
ReplyDeleteI give you Brownie points for a complete list, showing Sandy has gotten a lot of really good (mostly low power) guys - EXCEPT for the exclusion of the acquisition on Andrew Brown, who I know already has major league time, unlike the others.
But Sandy acquired him, and I will be tracking Brownie's Brownie Points until he either cools off or gets promoted. Last night, lunch pail Andy had another ho hum day at the office - HR, single, and 2 walks. 23 extra base hits in 31 games, .363 average, .734 slug %, .452 on base.
Duda, a possible Brown casualty, did lay down a nice bunt last night, and lived up to form by his strikeout with the bags full and one out. Brown may not play much first base in Vegas, but he has played there a lot, and I think Duda should be aware there is a guy who is lethally hot in AAA who might want his job.
With Matt Koch, having not seen him pitch but having noticed the K drought, and almost total absence of walks this year and last (unparalleled in professional baseball, I would think), I still wonder if the low K's could be amped up a lot by him getting batters to chase bad balls a lot more. Walk a few more, strike out a lot more by getting them to chase. And hope that it is not just a pretty hard but very straight fastball and secondary pitches that are too hittable that are the cause of his low K's.
It may be something as simple as Matt and another hard throwing puzzle (Tapia) drinking from the same Kool Aid jug. Low in Vitamin K. Just 38 K's in 93 innings between the two of them.
Thomas I'm glad you brought up Duda's K with bases juiced. I said it just yesterday that he just can't cut it when it counts. Would love to see a replacement there. Mack good work on the post , specifically the good numbers on a lot on the prospects.
ReplyDeleteI would love kemp, but if we are trading all that back, they better be picking up C Youngs contract and some more down the line as well. He is still young at 29 and would be great protection behind Wright.
ReplyDeleteWe need to remember that with Grandy signed for 3 additional years and Lagares cost controllable for another 4 years, we need to keep LF open for when Puello or Nimmo get to the big leagues.
ReplyDeleteThis front office is not going to make a move for an OF that is signed beyond 2015.
I think it speaks volumes about the Mets' impression of Andrew Brown who is on the 40 man roster yet when Eric Young went down it was Matt den Dekker who was called up despite the fact that between Chris Young and Juan Lagares they already have two centerfielders. Have you looked at Brown's numbers in AAA?
ReplyDeleteThrough 31 games he's batting .363 with 11 HRs and 27 RBIs. Don't give me the lefty/righty crap. He's obviously playing every day against both arms and producing. den Dekker was hitting .269.
What will be interesting to see if the Wilpons (with the Kelp of Katz) take a new look at the possiblity of selling the properties.
ReplyDelete2 billion for the clippers could change a lot of thinking
All pitching coaches have their own way of doing things, just like batting coaches (look at last night's 'swing at the first pitch' change of policy).
ReplyDeleteMost of these pitchers went through Savannah under Frank Viola and were trained to approach the zone in a particular way.
This is easy to do with someone like Vic Black (2 pitchers), but Koch pitches a much more controlled game. Couple that with a new coach and a lot could be different right now.
Reese.
ReplyDeleteYou're right about Brown. What could the FO have against him? He performed great when he was up here earlier this year. I would have thought they wanted to showcase Den Dekker for a trade, but they're not playing him. Brown's not getting any younger!
Mack,
ReplyDeleteIs Sue up for some Chocolate Brownies?
Mack
ReplyDeleteI am afraid that the opposite will occur. I fear that Fred Wilpon will take the Clippers selling price as even more of a reason NOT to sell.
After all, the Wilpons are in no personal financial distress.
Now Fred can feel even better about the worth of what he leaves Jeff as his Met inheritance
Sugar -
ReplyDeleteSure - they can't be frosted because of the weather.
With or without walnuts? send $24.95 to paypal
Has anyone else looked at Kemp's stats since 2011? Down EVERY YEAR from the one before. And he looked like Willie Mays of 1973this weekend.
ReplyDeleteKoch question---how does he pronounce his name? Rhyme with "watch" or "poke"?
Critics...
ReplyDeleteOkay Bill...
Who should the Mets go after and with what?
Hey Reese
ReplyDeleteOn Brown, I hear you about forgetting the lefty/righty crap. Two much focus on that. But it actually highlights Brown's great stats in a way - in that Dekker almost exclusively went lefty vs. righty. Brown has had the large majority of his at bats in what should be the tougher righty vs. righty. I don't know his splits, but he is killing it overall, so it has to be excellence against both sides.
That is not to knock Dekker - I like him. Brown is just putting up amazing #'s by comparison. Before taking on huge salary of a Kemp, I'd consider a good run with Brown.
Complicating that sort of "take a chance" approach is - WE ARE IN A PENNANT RACE!! So decisions matter more if we actually stay in this race.
On Koch - Mack I hope you are right that a change in pitching coach could lead to a change in approach. It is far easier to tell a super-control guy like Koch to nibble more than to get a wild guy to throw strikes. Glavine and Maddox had long careers with great control.
ReplyDeleteNot saying Koch has (or will ever have) their stuff, but that control (I mean, the guy has given up just 10 walks in 130 innings this year and last!) has to be a major asset he can somehow exploit to get himself to the majors.
I had always thought Ryan Braun was the name they should have pursued big time while embroiled in his PED scandal. His price might have been slightly reduced but now with Milwaukee playing well, all is forgiven and I assume he's off the table.
ReplyDeleteI hate to sound like a broken record (continuous loop sampling for the younger set) but Giancarlo Stanton is probably the one to target and Florida has a long history of dumping stars for prospects. If you're not going to go in that direction, Troy Tulowitzki would be the next choice for me. It solves two problems at once -- middle of the order hitter and shortstop.
What I DON'T want to see is a player with a pattern of decline (something for once my friend Bill and I agree upon). That leaves out the Kemps and the Crawfords. I also don't want to see a solid but not spectacular player like Alex Gordon. Yes, he'd help, but not enough (and not for what he's being paid). I'd sooner roll the dice on finding the next Mike Trout/George Springer/Yasiel Puig/Jose Abreu. One such specimen of that ilk off to a poor start this year is Wil Myers. I doubt the budget conscious Rays would consider it, but he's a perfect example of buy low with limitless potential.
Thomas -
ReplyDeleteTrust me... pitching coaches can really screw up a pitcher too.
Re Brown: I hate to burst your bubble on some of these guys... but they simply aren't ever going to be productive every day major league players. And, as you are learning with den Dekker, anyone else promoted in the outfield is just going to ride the bench.
The "big bat" certianly helps, but it is not a requirement and may be impossible to obtain from outside the organization as well due to cost (in prospects and payroll) and performance risk. I would rule out the Kemps of the world as well, unless the Dodgers both ate the majority of the contract and would accept a couple of grade B prospects. No cost controlled blue chips for him. I have been harping on this for a while, but if they could just weed out the weak links in the lineup, and get a legit bat at SS, LF, C and 1B (perhaps Duda can fill the 1B and TDA could fill the C), the lineup would be solid but not spectular. But, if they additions in SS and LF could bring plus D with OK offense (just don't suck offense), they could win with pitching, D, and OK offense.
ReplyDeleteTP -
ReplyDeleteThe strange thing about replacing the hitting coach was the fact that the Mets were actually hitting better of late.
I'm not trying to be critical of all of you but I don't understand Mets fans. You want a better team, you bitch when other teams sign better players, and when I offer up a real bat, everybody tears it up why the Mets shouldn't invest THEIR money into the player.
I really don't get all of you sometimes.
Go back... read what everyone said about Nelson Cruz.
You can't complain about the lack of pop on this team and not keep trying to change it.
Just read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Dodgers lost a reliever, Chris Withrow, to a UCL injury - going to have TJS. Their bullpen was rated 22nd in MLB before this. Gee, a team with a star outfield prospect that is in need of pitching, with a GM (Colletti) who is not the sharpest tool in the drawer. Sandy, put Omar on this...oh yeah, Omar's in AZ. Well, Sandy, put DePo on it, or make the call yourself. Time's a-wasting, and you can talk Colletti out of Joc, no problem. Fingers crossed!
ReplyDeleteMack: To answer your challenge, here are some targets, with the caviat that I don't know if they're available at all. Goldschmidt, Tulo, either of the Cargos, Stanton.
ReplyDeleteWho'd I offer? NO ONE except David is untouchable. If they want any two of our SPs, for example, I'd do it for the right guy. If they want Thor and Montero, I can live with a rotation of the 7 or so"leftovers".
Bill -
ReplyDeleteDo you realize how much more some teams can offer for a Tulo or Stanton. We're totally out of this league.
I still want to decide who my rotation is going to be for the period of 2015-2018.
After that, I'll start trying to make some deals.
Mack---as per my caveat, I don't know about the availability of these guys. You asked whom I'd TARGET, and what I'd be willing to OFFER.
ReplyDeleteI still remember getting Keith for Allen and Ownbey; getting Olerud for Robert Person; Gary Carter for Hubie and the expendables (sounds like a rock group); Johan for prospects (most of whom didn't pan out). There's always a GM or two out there who has needs (besides ours).
Alderson just has to find him/them.
Soto
ReplyDeleteI don't think the Mets FO is going to pass up on a potential impact, middle of the order bat who plays good outfield defense in order to reserve a spot for two players who may or may not be playing in the bigs in the future, the more promising of which is still years away and only in A ball. And if getting them in the lineup does become a problem, I'm sure they'd be able to trade one of them for at least a modest return.
I would also go all out after Joey Gallo from the Texas system. Pederson, Gallo, Stanton, Tulo, lets go for it.
ReplyDelete