Stephen Guilbert - Who The Mets Will Draft #10 Overall

The nature of my job makes it that I am radio silent to the baseball world for days and sometimes weeks at a time. I then come back to see all that has happened. Injuries, ears getting bitten off, hot streaks, managerial firings, and the most recent trade rumors.

Nothing changes as much as the amateur player draft in the weeks leading up to selection day. I left off with HS SS Nick Gordon looking like a potential target for the Mets at #10, RHP Jeff Hoffman as a potential #1 overall candidate and a lock to go top 5, and HS 3B Michael Chavis was nowhere near the top 10. Brady Aiken had just finished his meteoric ascent to #1 consideration and Trea Turner was confusing everyone. Here are a few of the targets the Mets have been linked to, make sense for the team, or are projected to be selected around #10, the likelihood the Mets draft them, then, finally, the projected pick for the Mets as it stands now.

Trea Turner- SS- NC State

The Mets have been linked to Turner for as long as 2014 draft prospect lists came out a couple years ago. Speed, defensive skills, power, contact ability, and all at the position the Mets need the most. Turner was a #1 potential pick before struggling to hit some of the better collegiate pitching he has faced this year. I think he was trying too hard to make himself the #1 overall pick and was trying to hit for too much power. Regardless, Turner still projects right around the #7-11 range, I cannot see the Blue Jays passing on his talent. There was a time where Nick Gordon looked like the #9 pick, leaving the Mets the chance to draft Turner if they so desired, but that time has passed. While I do believe the Mets would draft Turner if they could, I do not see him being available.

Jeff Hoffman- RHP- East Carolina

If the Mets were to draft Hoffman, there would be a large percentage of the fan base that would call for blood. Hoffman will not pick up a baseball for months after having Tommy John surgery and most likely will not pitch until summer of next year. However, this was as dominant a collegiate pitcher as there was in the country before his injury and as we saw with Lucas Giolito, TJS can turn a former #1 projected pick into a later-first round steal into a top MLB prospect. As Mack has said, "would you draft Matt Harvey knowing he'd miss the next year?" I think we all would. Right now, I put the odds of drafting Hoffman at <5% but it would not be a bad play.

Nick Gordon- SS- Florida HS

Gordon has been a player I really like. He has the best infield arm in the draft, has great size, athleticism, speed, and impressive power potential. As far as high school middle infielders go, he passed HS SS Jacob Gatewood as the player in this draft. What else happened? His brother, 2B Dee Gordon for the Dodgers started playing well. Really well. No, what Dee does has nothing to do with Nick's performance this season (which has been very very good), but it does put scouts' minds at ease that the offspring of Tom Gordon can succeed at the big league level. Also, if Dee Gordon can be this good, what is the ceiling for Nick, the better player of the two? No chance the young Gordon falls to the Mets at #10. This disappoints me as I have had him projected to the Mets and really wanted this guy. Bummer.

Michael Conforto- OF- Oregon State

This is the guy a lot of the mocks have going to the Mets at this point, including draft guru Jon Mayo. A lot of folks tie him to the Mets because of two reasons: 1.) The Mets will draft a college hitter, having drafted three straight high schoolers, and 2.) That Conforto's power and patience combo makes him a no-brainer for Sandy Alderson and his team's philosophies. Both of these reasons are rational and I cannot blame experts and fans alike for putting those two together. Here is why it is wrong, though: Conforto is not much of a defender and unless something strange happens at the top of the draft, both he and OF Brad Zimmer will be available. Zimmer is the superior player and a far superior defender. I do not mind Conforto, but I see no instance in which the Mets draft a college hitter and it is not Turner or Zimmer. One of the two will be available, making Conforto invisible to the Mets. Plus, some have him going before the Mets pick anyway.

Touki Toussaint- RHP- Florida HS

I love this kid. I have written thousands of words about my affinity for this power righty. He should be on the board and his command is certainly a concern but his arm strength and fastball/curve combination do not come around all that often. I think either some team grabs him early in the draft (Phillies or Blue Jays, perhaps) or he falls to the late first round. I doubt the Mets take such a high risk in a draft in which they have only one pick in the first 83 picks.

Sean Newcomb- LHP- Hartford

25%. That is the highest percentage I will give a player outside of my current projection. No, the Mets do not necessarily need another pitcher and there are good college bats on the board and also some chance that a player who should go much higher falls in their laps (think RHP Aaron Nola or C/OF Alex Jackson) but Newcomb has the size and repertoire that everyone is drooling over and there is a good chance he will be available. The Mets lack lefty depth in their system and only one southpaw at the big league level.

The Mets will draft:

OF Bradley Zimmer- San Francisco

Zimmer did everything he could to vault himself in the top 10 picks in the 2014 player draft and whichever team takes him gets a steal. .368/.461/.573 with power, speed, a dominant arm in the outfield and overall defensive skills in center that make scouts project him a a gold glove contender at the next level. Five tools. Seven skills. Zimmer has it all and I have no idea why he is not in consideration for the top few picks in the draft. As it stands now, most mocks and experts have him available at #10 and draft guru Matt Garrioch has him as the 19th ranked prospect in the pool of players, a ranking i find too low but in a very very deep draft.

Here are the odds as I see it now:

Zimmer- 50%
Newcomb- 25%
Turner- 10%
Conforto- 5%
Freeland, Beede, Nola, Finnegan- 5%
Toussaint, Holmes, Reid-Foley- <5%
Chavis, Gettys- <5%
Hoffman- <5%


Who else could the Mets draft? Answer in the comments below.

P.S. Think about what drafting Hoffman could do. You sign him for a million under slot. He has no bargaining power and is hurt. He becomes the best prospect in the system as soon as he starts pitching. Now, at pick 84, some player has fallen way too far. Let's say, for sake of argument, it is someone like Toussaint. This is not a crazy notion as Lance McCullers Jr., a contender for a top 3 pick a few years ago slipped into the supplemental. Third round is still quite a few picks from where McCullers was taken, but hear me out. The Mets have a million to spend on top of the third round bonus (high 6 figures). You throw 1.75 million at Toussaint to get him to skip college ball and join a system that has produced some of the better pitchers in baseball over the past couple years.

--SG