I'm not saying that only seven Mets minor league players are some day going to star for this team. What I am saying is, in my opinion, these seven look like the creme on the top of a very talented minor league system.
2015 -
SP Noah Syndergaard - 'Thor' is going to join Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Bartolo Colon as potential 2015 starters. There's a ton of talent here, but there's also a ton of doctor bills. Still, Syndergaard is projected as a front-end starter who should be back pitching for Las Vegas some time this month.
P Rafael Montero - If you notice, I did not list him as an 'SP'. You know how I feel about this, but I also think the Mets could be thinking about converting Montero to a back-end reliever. He's not the flame thrower that Jenrry Mejia or Jeurys Familia are, but he'd be a perfect 7th inning set-up man along side guys like Vic Black and Josh Edgin. You would be building a very talented bullpen (let's not forget Bobby Parnell) for, hopefully, a healthy rotation someday
2016 -
SP Steven Matz - Matz hasn't shown any weakness since coming back from the loss of two seasons due to reconstructive surgery and should finish this season pitching for Binghamton. The Mets won't rush him in 2015 but he'll be ready to step in when Bartolo Colon's contract runs out. Remember... Jon Niese's last contract year is 2016 and it's important to keep Matz around through his arbitration period.
C Kevin Plawecki - We're being conservative here. Plawecki will probably be ready sometime next season, but let's play it safe. You all know I still believe in Travis d'Arnaud but we could easily be looking at the future New York Met catcher here. Thank God he's in the system.
2B/SS Dilson Herrera - This one is interesting. He should finish this season in Binghamton, but, since he's experimenting at shortstop for St. Lucie, the question might be at what position. Wouldn't it be interesting if Herrera turned out to be the future shortstop. Still, if you pay the projected $8mil to Daniel Murphy next season for his final arbitration year, Herrera could step right in for scale in 2016. God, I'm starting to sound like a Wilpon now.
CF Brandon Nimmo - Nimmo continues to prove that choosing him in the draft was the right thing to do. He too will most probably finish the 2014 season in Binghamton and we'll give him the 2015 season to finish up in New York State and then move on to Las Vegas. He'll be ready on opening day 2016.
LF Michael Conforto - Here's your wild card. First, they still have to sign him. Next, he'll probably start off this season in Brookyn and end up either in Savannah or St. Lucie, depending upon his progress as a Cyclone. Every report says he very advanced and, as they put it, 'close to ready' for the MLB level. Saying he would be ready for opening day 2016 seems to be safe. Now (please God) let him be for real.
I hate to say it, but the timetable for the Mets turnaround seems to be needed to be rest for 2016, not 2014. We all know the only question for the pitching staff is health and which young pitchers will be in the rotation, but the lineup could be...
Duda, Herrera, somebody, Wright, Plawecki, Conforto, Nimmo, and Granderson
You fill in that 'somebody' slot with a star free agent shortstop and you've got a pretty decent team here.
So if everything were to break right for the mets in 2016
ReplyDeletec, TDA, Palwecki
2b: dilson
ss: trade
3b: wright
RF: nimmo/Granderson
CF Nimmor/Larages
LF: Conforto/Nimmo
1b: Duda/Granderson
Harvey
Thor
Niese
Wheeler
Gee/Matz
I assume 1 pitcher of niese/wheeler/matz/Gee has to get traded for a ss
Good article. Lagares should always be part of the OF discussion. He's got wicked ability. 1b/SS , relief pitching and a new manager are what we need on the Horizon.
ReplyDeleteIf Conforto has a good enough arm for LF, maybe he could cover 1B until Smith comes up in 2018. By then, Granderson's contract will be up and we can put him back in the OF. That lets us put Nimmo in LF for 2 years and keep Lagares in CF. When Smith gets here, put Conforto back in LF and Nimmo in RF. Or, do as Robb suggests and slide Granderson to 1B and just put Nimmo in RF and Conforto in LF from the start. Of course, that leaves Duda as the odd man out. If he can keep hitting like he is, he'll bring back a nice haul in a trade. Nice problem to have!
ReplyDeleteWhy do we think it'll take Smith till 2018 to reach the majors.
ReplyDeleteCurrent path IMO is
'14: A
'15: A+/AA
'16: AAA/July call-up to MLB
Robb:
ReplyDeleteIt seems to always get back to shortstop.
Soto -
ReplyDeleteHe has adjusted well this year at A-ball, but I'd leave him there for the remainder of the year and start him off at A+ next opening day.
I've learned over the year that I can't rely on predicting beyond the current and next two seasons. Anybody below that is simply too raw and impossible to predict.
Steve -
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that Conforto is penciled in as the future left fielder on the Mets... period.
Duda is good enough at first base until the outfield gets filled in and someone like Dom Smith takes it away from him.
My guess is Conforto will move pretty quickly if he shows 80% of the pop everybody projects him to have. He probably will suit up for Brooklyn first this year and will either finish 2014 for either Savannah or t. Lucie, but the important thing is he will be back at St. Lucie on opening day 2015 and end that season for Binghamton,
Past that, who the heck knows.
@Mack
ReplyDeleteThat's what I have laid out above.....Dominic Smith's minor League path should be in-line with Brandon Nimmo's.
Any good free agent SS this off season? We should get a protected first round pick again with the way things are trending. Where does DeGrom fit into all of this? RP? Trade? (if so, then for what?) Backup for injury?
ReplyDeleteSoto -
ReplyDeleteGreat minds...
Dallas -
ReplyDeleteI'll give you my thoughts on your question in the Thursday Morning Report (I try to work a day ahead)
Mack,
ReplyDeleteI just think we need to keep Lagares in the picture. We're going to need him when Grandy's contract is up, either as a CF or RF. So what do we do with him for 2016-2017?
Soto,
I was guilty of working from my memory, which I shouldn't trust as much as I used to.
Dallas,
If I had to predict, I'd still say our next SS is somewhere in the Dbacks SS depth. With their pitching needs, DeGrom or Gee will probably be a good-sized part of that deal. If Gee is traded to them, any extra prospects may be coming here instead of going there.
Steve -
ReplyDeleteI would also like to keep Lagares around and I only hope we can become so talented in the outfield that he can become the 4th OF in the system
Mack,
ReplyDeleteI'm very interested to hear your thoughts on SS. In my opinion any money that we have to spend needs to go on the best free agent available. Hopefully they can lead off as well. A 3-4 year deal would be a nice lead in to one of Cecchini, Rosario, Giullorme or Ramos.
Hopefully we can strike gold with a LF on a one year deal until Conforto is ready in 2016. If not plug EYJ, Campbell or any other warm body out there. We should have a nice outfield with Nimmo, Conforto, Granderson and Lagares.
All my money is going to SS, so I live with Duda a first until Smith is up. I'm sticking with Travis as catcher until Plawecki is ready for the bigs, then may the best man win.
You make a decision at 2nd between Murphy and Flores. I'd trade Flores, go with Murph for another 2-3 and wait on Herrera.
Harvey, Neise, Gee, Wheeler, Colon and Syndergaard are my starters (you can bet someone will be injured). Anyone else can be traded. My 'pen starts with Mejia, Black, Familia, Parnell, Edgin and any other starters left over.
John -
ReplyDeleteI'll give you my current thoughts on SS in the Friday Morning Report