Morning Report – June 28th – Mets SPs, Wilmer Flores, Emmanuel Zapata, 2016

                                                                                             

Coming Later Today –   

         12 00 pm -   Reese Kaplan - Mets' Decision Making   

         2:00 PM - 2015 Draft Profile  -  RHP  -  Nolan Kingham - Sierra Vista (NV) HS

I opened up the ‘anonymous’ option again so some of you can get through via comments. I’ll try to keep erasing the negative trolls before they reach your eyes.

Word from the Port St. Lucie complex is that it is ‘close to impossible’ that we will see either SP Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero again in Queens this year. Syndergaard has simply lost the ability to get out enough AAA hitters and Montero is healing slowly on the disabled list. 

It only got worse for Thor on Thursday night when he gave up five more earned runs over four innings, raising his AAA ERA to an unexceptable 5.35.

Reports were also out there that the Mets were ‘livid’ with the way Montero pitched when he came to Queens. What amazes me is, first TC says he might use Montero as a reliever, then they call him up and add him to the rotation. We’ve all seen this big league anxiety before and the only way you turn this around is to pitch your way through it.

For now… going into the trading season… the 2015 Mets rotation projects as Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee.

Your next options will be Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Montero, and Jeremy Hefner.

My guess (and dream) is that Hefner and Montero will be in the pen while two more of these guys will always be on the disabled list.

I want to spend a few more moments on the Wilmer Flores demotion before I move on.

I understand the move.

The Mets have decided that the National League is average enough for them to make a run for a playoff spot. As I have pointed out in my report two days ago, all the Mets have to do is win the majority of the series they have left, especially against their division rivals. There actually is as good a chance they could quality first as the division leader rather than one of the wild card teams.

What this means is the Mets will not be a seller. You will see certain sacrifices like retaining the services of OF Bobby Abreu and P Daisuke Matsuzaka. This team will need all the internal talent they can muster if they expect to pull this off.

I’m sure the basic Mets logic about the Flores demotion is that all of the outfielders on the 25-man at that time were producing better numbers than he was. The logic was to play the hot hands until they cool off. So Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Young Jr., and Eric Campbell were determined to be more valuable during this stretch.

At the same time, room must be made for Juan Lagares, so who doesn’t start in the first game he’s back? Chris Young, the guy that was rumored to being released until he hit three home runs in the two games prior to the Lagares move, somehow winds up on the bench.

Is any of this making sense to you?

Is there anything hotter than two home runs in three games?

Here’s one thing that does make sense. Las Vegas is a two hour time difference to most of the games the Mets play. You can make one phone call to Wally Backman if Ruben Tejada was to go down with an injury and Flores could be tucked in bed somewhere close to CitiField by 2am (hourly flights from Vegas to LGA).

On paper, the Mets will tell you that this is a good move for Flores who will get more play time in Vegas. How did that work for Travis d’Arnaud?

And the ‘march to the playoffs’? Well we all know how Zack Wheeler pitched the other night. And, we all know things haven't gone perfectly in Pittsburgh.

This isn’t how a ‘march to the playoffs’ works.

19-year old outfielder Emmanuel Zapata may be someone to keep an eye on.

This is his second year in the Mets organization and, frankly, you’re not going to find much written about the Dominican native. He played last season for the DSL Mets and, in 55 games (194 Abs), hit .263/.372/.366/.738

The 6-0, 185 pounder hasn’t showed much power, but he is off to a good start this year for the GCL Mets: 5-G 19-AB, .368/.381/.526/.907.

Remember the name.

Lastly…

Stephen Keane and I talked about the fact that Mets never seem to have that ‘team changer’ coming out of their system. I guess the last one that is still on this team would be David Wright, but why can’t ‘we’ make a phone call and call up a Greg Polanco, or George Springer, or Joc Peterson?

The Mets seem to always be drafting somebody that ‘may someday’ do something. You know what I mean… ‘Brandon Nimmo may someday have some power”… and ‘Gavin Cecchini may someday be a top leadoff hitter”…

This year was supposed to be both the ‘Wilmer Flores year’ and the ‘Cesar Puello year’. Both these guys were supposed to not only fill positional slots for a long time, they were also supposed to become two more 20+ home run hitters in the lineup.

Add those projections to the pop being currently put out by Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda, add in two typical years for Wright and Daniel Murphy, and add a dash of the original projection for Travis d’Arnaud, and… well… this could have been a completely different season.

The Mets are not going to solve this for the next couple of years through the draft. The Omar Minaya era, which was dominated with college juniors and seniors being picked on draft day, was followed in 2011 by Sandy Alderson’s target on high ceiling high school seniors. That’s all well and good if you’re willing to wait the 2-3 years that the gap you created by changing this draft direction catches up. Alderson’s picks are now beginning to dominate the AA level; however, there was an 18 month period where both AAA and AA were more dominated by organizational players. 

If you want to make the playoffs now, you are going to have to go outside the system for the players you need for the rest of this season and, most probably, the next one also.

Minor Notes –

We’re not sure if GCL SP Logan Taylor is technically on a rehab assignment. The 22-yr. old was having a wonderful year for Savannah last year (7-starts, 2.67) when he went down for the season. Well, he’s back now and has started two games for the rookie-GCL team with outstanding results: 11.0-IP, 13-K, 0-BB, 0.82). It seems to me that the lowest level he should be pitching at is his old Sand Gnats assignment so I’d look for some movement here soon… Wilmer Flores played third base last night for Las Vegas. Go figure... please don’t ask Binghamton’s SP Tyler Pill to join the bullpen. His one outing there this season resulted in an 11.25-ERA. Pill began his climb back to prospect status by going 7.58-ERA in April (4-ST), but he’s now got it down to a season low 3.99. My guess is he will be the next rotation pitcher promoted to Vegas sometime in July… Brooklyn SP 19-yr. old Marcos Molina is off to a great start:  3-starts, 0.47-ERA, 19.0-IP, 20-K… and the Cyclones prospect middle infielder, 18-yr. old Amed Rosario, is wasting little time proving he can handle the pitching at this level. He ended last night with a .316 batting average.