Morning Report - 7-29-14 - Alex Palsha, Lineup Roulette, Jacob deGrom

A name to keep an eye on –

            The GCL Mets seem to be developing a new closer in the Mets system.

            Alex Palsha was a 6-1 RHP 27th round draft pick in this last draft out of Sacramento State University (transfer from the College of San Mateo). Prior to that, he had Tommy John surgery coming out of high school and pitched for Diablo Valley College.

The 22-year old was a reliever in college, going 6-1, 1.82, 1.06, in 37 appearances earlier this year. He also had 57 strikeouts in 59.1 innings pitched, but gave up 28 walks.

So far this season with the Mets, he’s cut his BB/9 down from 4.25 to 0.00 and has now pitched 6.2 scoreless innings in seven appearances (0.00, 5-SV).

He’s got an 88-91, 93 fastball, a second pitch curve (with good drop).

I really got upset when Chris Young didn’t seem to even try to catch that ball hit to him on Saturday. You know Juan Lagares would have caught it because he plays so shallow. While, I’m on the subject, where was Lagares and why wasn’t he in centerfield? Why is this manager still playing lineup roulette when they are supposed to be in a pennant race? You have three or four weeks here in late July and early August to make your move and pass most of the teams that are ranked ahead of you in the standings. This is when you play your best players. Frankly, you play them until they drop. They are professional athletes who can recover from the ‘rigor’ of a nine inning baseball game (give me a break). There is no Met baseball game for the rest of the year that should be played without Lagares in centerfield. Period.

I will tell you this… Chris Young didn’t create the 4-5 record the Mets have in the first nine games since the all-star break. That was created by the lack of offense (minus Lucas Duda) that continues to be the one problem that management will not address. The team has plenty of pitching, not only to put out on the mound but also to deal off for one of two new bats in the lineup.

I assume the lack of deals is caused by the lack of ‘seller’ or ‘buyer’ direction each team hasn’t decided on yet. I stand by my conviction to give the man to the end of the trading period to prove to me he can fill in the pieces here. No, I don’t expect them to be filled, but I still give him the time to do it.

But, if these are the cards we are dealt, would you please tell your manager to stop shuffling the deck every time he fills out a lineup card.

And while I’m on TC bashing, do you really think that P Jon Niese wants anything to do with this guy anymore? Collins played it down in a press conference saying that all pitchers don’t get along with their managers. No Terry…  Niese doesn’t get along with the way you manager his game. That’s all this is.

From http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2014/07/27/prospect-roundup-games-of-july-26/ -

Mets 2B Dilson Herrera, Double-A Binghamton: 3-for-5, HR, 4 RBI, 3 R — Acquired last August from the Pirates in exchange for Marlon Byrd, Herrera is looking like a good get for the Mets. Listed at 5-foot-10, 150 pounds, Herrera appears to have added some size in the last year, and that’s reflected in more power this season. Herrera’s also cut down on the strikeouts, a good sign for the offensive-minded second baseman.

Mack – Positive press. This is what you look for when ‘internal’ prospects start to become known to the world. Herrera really is starting to look like the real deal (small sample at AA), and it sure would be nice to look into a crystal ball on this one. I will say this… Daniel Murphy and Herrera will never play in the same infield.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Jacob deGrom (80.2 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (16.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). The former, as illustrated by the table below and further supported by this hyperlink to the relevant leaderboard, has recorded the best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualified starters in July so far.

#	Name	Team	G	GS	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	GB%	xFIP-
1	Jacob deGrom	Mets	4	4	26.0	103	33.0%	4.9%	47.6%	50
2	Tyson Ross	Padres	5	5	35.0	133	30.8%	3.8%	51.2%	53
3	Jon Lester	Red Sox	4	4	29.0	113	30.1%	2.7%	57.3%	55
4	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	5	5	32.2	132	30.3%	5.3%	44.6%	58
5	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	4	4	30.0	111	32.4%	6.3%	61.8%	60

The 26-year-old deGrom faces a Milwaukee club which possesses the highest current odds of winning the NL Central division. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nerd-game-scores-presenting-all-julys-best-starter/

Mack – My guess is deGrom is on every team’s short list of players they would currently want the Mets to include in a trade next week. I’m torn in both directions here. I don’t want to lose any of ‘my’ healthy young pitchers, but I also know there is no solution for at least two years for left field and shortstop (no, current management will never give Flores his day). I guess, like all of you, I just have to sit back and wait out these last days of the month.

Hot Stove –

The Red Sox are shopping LHRP Andrew Miller (14.5 K/9 vs. 2.8 BB/9, 51.9% groundball rate, 2.31 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 1.82 xFIP, and 1.47 SIERA)

Joel Sherman reports that Tampa Bay sent advanced scouts to the Binghamton on July 27th... Rainy Lara was the starting pitcher... OF Michael Mahtook (AAA - .299, 8-HR, 53-RBI) would be a wonderful addition here...

Seattle is very interested in OF Matt Kemp

Bob Gregory – Mack, Could Colon be used to trade for Kemp? Possibly Colon + ? (Torres, Black, someone else). For Kemp and the Dodgers pay some acceptable amount of his salary. Imagine the Mets with Kemp and possibly Tulowitzki in the line-up.

As for Tulowitzki, if their was an offer the Mets could make that the Rockies were interested in......I would take that offer to the Marlins and explore how much more would be requested for Stanton.  Let the Marlins know this is the last chance the Mets can make this kind of trade before the prospects might be communicated in another trade.  If the Mets and Marlins can't work something out,  then go for Tulowitzki with out another thought. What do you think? Bob

            Mack – Bob, Thank you for your continued questions.

Bartolo Colon still has the talent to pitch in the major leagues. He’s done a credible job this year and I can only assume he can hold his own in 2015.

I can’t see the Mets getting a Kemp deal done. Yes, I have featured him here on my report, but only as a reporter saying he’s available. He’s costly as hell (though the Dodgers will eat some of this), damaged goods, and a pain in the ass in the clubhouse. I wouldn’t want him on ‘my team’ but that’s me.

Now, say Colon for Joc…

Regarding an offers for Tulo or Stanton, you can’t take an offer designed for one team and offer it to the other. That being said, the Mets only have trading depth at two positions (SP and C) so your trading partner better be looking for either one.

We’ve got today and tomorrow left for anything to happen. My guess is Kemp will go somewhere but Stanton and Tulo will remain with their current team at least through the end of the season.

Michael Scannell - 

            So, there are reports that the Mets are talking to the Rox about Tulo.  One report says they are prepared to deal Thor for him and another says they won't deal Thor for anyone.

Obviously, I want to keep the big kid, I think he'll be a big part of our ace rotation.

How has deGrom's value increased as a tradable commodity?  Is he in the Wheeler/Syndergaard league as far as trade value?

            Mack – Hey Mike

I’m reading the same reports but I just don’t see the Mets doing anything (other than trading Colon if anyone wants him) during this trading period, especially with the recent growth of deGrom.

De Grom is like the Juan Lagares of starters. No one expected this. He was on no one’s radar and never made a prospect list. Tells you how little all us and the experts know about this game sometimes.

Here’s my read…

1.     Everyone associated with this team wants to build a winner around a killer rotation

2.     No matter what you read, no one really thinks this is a playoff team this year

3.     Matt Harvey will return next year in some dominant capacity… I think he’ll be fine and be the SP1 but he’ll slot in somewhere in the SP1-3 area depending on the results of his pitching

4.     Zack Wheeler has proven he’s a keeper and is going nowhere. He will slot in perfectly as the SP2 behind Harvey

5.     Right now, de Grom is your SP3 and Noah Syndergaard your SP4. Don’t worry about Thor’s 5.00+ AAA ERA. He has four + pitches, cruises at 97 and, like Wheeler, will start out as a 4.00-ERA, high strikeout pitcher

6.     What’s left is Dillon Gee or Jon Niese. One will be moved either tomorrow or in the off-season. Jeremy Hefner will most probably be signed to a new deal and will SP1 Vegas as an emergency starter and Steven Matz will be right behind him as the AAA SP 2

Mike, you add to this a pen of Edgin, Montero, Familia, Black, Parnell, and Mejia and you have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball.

So, I wouldn’t panic. Lucas Duda is becoming a real slugger. Travis d’Arnaud is now producing as advertised. And Michael Conforto actually could have an ETA of OD 2016.

I would get the best bat I could for either Gee or Niese and go from there.

The good run for the Mets continue. They are now 14-7 in last 21 games

The Brewers lost to Tampa Bay, but they too are division leaders with three more victories than the Cards. Still, a loss is a loss and all of them could come back to help us.

The red hot Marlins had an amazing come from behind win against the Nationals which will probably pay off in the long run. Sure, we don't pull a game closer to Miami, but there's a better chance they will fade on their own later on in the season. This Nat loss moved the Mets to 7 1/2 games back in the division race.

The only way the Mets are going to make the playoffs if teams with better records then them lose more games each night. 

There are 10 teams in this race, both for division titles and two wild card slots. Of the 10, only three (Brewers, Reds, Giants) lost on Sunday.

Only four lost on Monday.. Nats, Brewers, Reds, Giants

Atlanta won again on Monday afternoon and remained at seven games ahead of the Mets in the loss column.

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Minor Moves –

Most Defensive Runs Saved in CF, Last 2 seasons: Carlos Gomez and Juan Lagares 42, Leonys Martin 27, Lorenzo Cain 25, Pollock/Dyson 22...  Eric Campbell is batting .302/.352/.365 over his last 105 plate appearances, buoyed by a .433 BABIP… (before Sunday’s game) Most swings and misses with fastball in July - Lance Lynn 37, Jacob deGrom 34, Jake McGee 34, Drew Hutchison 34… Travis d'Arnaud's slugging percentage went up 29 points last night, from .350 to .379... C Kevin Plawecki was back in the Vegas lineup last night And Anthony Seratelli played 2B again...