Stephen Guilbert - Future Major Leaguers- Savannah Sand Gnats

This will be a 4-part series analyzing which players in each minor league level looks like a future 25-man regular. We start with the Low-A Savannah Sand Gnats. 

Every organization has three types of minor leaguers:

     1.) Prospects the team hopes and intends on being starters on a winning team.

     2.) Role-players, bench pieces, bullpen specialists

     3.) Organizational filler

Within Category 1, we have trade bait: a luxury most teams want and few have. Within Category 3, there is also the “lottery pick”. This is the guy drafted, signed, or traded for who doesn’t quite fit into any of the categories and could end up anywhere from all-star to organizational guy. 

I want to examine who, level by level, in the Mets system, fall into either category 1 or 2. I am not interested in the Cat 3 guys. Sure, Matt Clark and Brian Burgamy are fine players, but they do not represent a 25-man roster spot on my future contending Mets team.

I am going to ignore any level lower than low-A Savannah from my lack of familiarity with those players and also because we really do not know what we have there yet. I would love to put Blake Taylor and Marcos Molina on this list, but it is just too early to tell.

Savannah Sand Gnats

Category 1:

1B Dominic Smith made me a very happy Mets fan when the Mets selected him in the first round of the 2013 draft.

1B Dominic Smith

No, he has yet to hit for power as a pro but the rest of his game, including his outstanding defense, eye, hit tool, and even a touch of speed, is outstanding. The power will come. This is a future star.

CF Champ Stuart

I believe in Stuart. He has problems. He needs to hit for more contact and learn to use his speed, but there is a future major leaguer here. He is a bit old for Savannah and needs to start rounding out his game, but I can see him being a starting outfielder for a good team someday. He blurs the line between Cat 1 and Cat 2 as I could also see him being a very good 4^th outfielder, but I will give him the love now and hope he makes my assertions appear prophetic.

SP Robert Whalen

I love this guy. He has the stuff, the attitude, and the early results to get me excited about him. Also, he grew up a Mets fan. What’s not to love? He had four excellent starts this year before getting hurt, but I expect he will play most of the year at Savannah, get through the playoffs, then join St. Lucie for a couple weeks at the end of the year. This is a mid-rotation guy with more room to improve.

SP John Gant

I did an interview with Gant early this year and was left puzzled about who this guy is. He seems very focused, very serious, does not talk much, and has a close relationship with his father. He also gets lots of outs when he starts, and I like that. I still see a back-end rotation guy here with the potential for more and perhaps a nice late-inning reliever. That would move him through the system more quickly but for now, I have him on the same timetable as Whalen.

Category 2:

SP Chris Flexen

Where Robert Whalen has been able to continue his success in Savannah, Flexen has struggled. Now, most experts had Flexen ahead of Whalen on the depth chart but I never have. While he is an inch taller, Whalen gets more juice on his fastball and misses more bats. Flexen is another guy I could see benefiting from a move to the bullpen, but that’s for years from now. Keep him as a starter and see if he can start getting more outs and allowing fewer hits. Cat 1 potential, current Cat 2.

RP Akeel Morris

I am still torn including Morris here as he is a 22-year-old reliever in Low-A. Sure, a guy like this could be in Vegas by the end of this year, but there is a lot that can go wrong when you’re older than your competition and have been in the organization for half a decade already. Still, the amount of bats Morris is missing cannot go unnoticed. He has always had good stuff and the move to the bullpen has proven quite successful. I tentatively include Morris here with the caution that he is borderline Cat 3.

SP Robert Gsellmann

Huge athlete, good control, fantastic results, young. I need to see this kid pitch (I only have once so far) to get a better sense for what we have here but there is a lot to like. Right now I have him fringe major-league starter but why should I like Gabriel Ynoa better? Potential Cat 1 pretty soon. 

The players I excluded who fans and scouts like:

Patrick Biondi- I cannot consider him a future major league piece at his age in Low-A.

Matt Oberste- I cannot consider him a future major league piece at his age in Low-A.

Dario Alvarez- I cannot consider him…well, you get the idea. Look, these are fine players, but they are not future major leaguers. Their peers are starting for major league squads right now and they are four levels away from joining them.

Miller Diaz- There is no reason to include Morris and not Diaz but I do not see the same fastball dominance. I hope I am wrong and I do like Diaz, having seen him pitch a number of times, but I am going Cat 3 for now. A potential mover in future editions of this list.

Alex Panteliodis, Logan Taylor, Tyler Vanderheiden- Same age/league problem I have with a number of the current Sand Gnats. I do like these guys but they have to start moving through the system. Low odds any of these guys become major leaguers.

In short, Savannah is stacked. This is a very very good team and, like every other level in the Mets system, is loaded with pitching. By my count: 

Category 1: 4 players

Category 2: 3 players

Five pitchers (one sure reliever), one corner infielder, and one outfielder with Alvarez a fringe Cat 2 as well. That is fantastic for a single level. 

Tomorrow we take a look at St. Lucie and see if the pitching excellence continues in the FSL. 

--SG