Tom Brennan - I DON’T GO FOR NO PLATEAU

I DON’T GO FOR NO PLATEAU by Tom Brennan

It seems sooner or later most of us plateau. Maybe in your career, you've gone as far as you can go.  Fortune 500 CEO.  Janitor at McDonalds – “have it your way”.  Whatever. 

Hey, maybe it’s possible that the world's greatest Met website, Macks Mets, has plateaued, because you just can't get any better than perfection, right?  Nah, with Captain Mack at the helm, "it’s getting better all the ti-i-ime". "We’ve only just begun".  Maestro, if you please.

Earth to Tom – OK, OK I’m back – now where was I?

Oh, yeah…many players plateau, whether in the majors or minors, and never reach their dreams.  Ike Davis, for example, has plateaued and may in fact be in severe decline.  His former competitor, Big Lucas, the California Dude, hung out on a plateau for a while but has resumed his climb, steeply ascending as of late. Duda is simply channeling his inner lumberjack - he is swinging a mean axe.

I like it when guys, especially underdog guys, refuse to plateau.  Two such gendarmes I have enjoyed pulling for in recent years are Matty the Den Dekker and Fly Me to the Moon-yo Danny Muno.  People get annoyed after a while when I advocate for them - I sometimes even annoy myself in that regard -because in folks’ minds, these two dudes have plateaued.  Ain’t good enough.  Move on.  Who’s next, Roger Daltry?  We won’t get fooled again.  But I like fighters, and I like fighters who fix flaws you don't think will ever get fixed.   Or who just dig in and keep getting better. 

Muno, for instance, adapts, then surges.  Last year, he was terrible through May in AA, but awesome the rest of the way.  This year in Vegas, he played sporadically early as he adapted to AAA.  He had a .333 on base % in April – not bad, but not typical Danny.  Signs of adaptation were there in May for those looking close enough - his on base % jumped to .373 in May. 

But Danny loves to surge in June.  Did it last year, and has done it this year too.  In fact, in the one year his season actually STARTED in June (2011 in Brooklyn) he hit a booming .355. 

In his 39 games in June and July this year, thru Tuesday (and at least 9 of those games he came up only once as a pinch hitter), he’d gotten on base 60 times.  The big 6-0.  His slash for those games? .305/.425/.560.  Wait, the little guy had a .560 slug %?  Ahh, just Vegas, say the naysayers. 

By the way, "Little" Danny is a misnomer - he has 11 homers in 317 plate appearances, and continues (despite never batting in the middle of the line up) to knock in runs (25 in those 125 June and July plate appearances, and 44 RBIs and 60 runs in his 317 plate appearances for 2014).  And remember, guys adjust to leagues - this is his inaugural exposure to AAA.  He’s getting better and better, it seems.  

To hammer my point home, since June last year, Danny stepped off the charts (which charts, I am not sure). He has been to the plate 662 times, about what an everyday leadoff hitter might accumulate in a full major league season.  So what are his #'s in that span, that hypothetical full season? Again, mostly as a lead off guy or hitting 7th or 8th in the order: 119 runs; on base via hit walk and HBP 259 times; 25 doubles, 19 homers, and 86 RBIs.  Not too shabby.  Kind of sensational, actually.

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So I don't care what the people say - I am a FAN of Dan, the Man with the on-base plan.   This 2B (and SS and 3B) has also been cutting down on the errors on defense.  I for one want to see where his real plateau is.  He ain’t reached it yet.

Now for Matt den Dekker – are we the only major league team that has 3 guys in its organization (den Dekker, d’Arnaud, deGrom) whose names start with a small d, by the way?     Matt sputters, then clicks. Then excels.  Yeah, I know he turns 27 in August, but he was almost 23 when he started in the pros, and missed half of 2013 with a fractured wrist, so stay with me for a second. 

In 2011, he hits .296 in St. Lucie (nice), then gets promoted to AA and hits just .236 (uggh).  Plateau?  Nah, he goes back to AA in 2012, hits .340 (Whew!), and gets promoted to AAA, where he hits just .220 (oh, my).  Plateau?  

Nope. After his rehab, he goes back to AAA in 2013, starts out 1 for 25, then surges and ends up at .296.  Late last year, a small cup of Met coffee, another brief cup this year – pretty darned bad. 

Plateau?  Surrender?  Not Dekker.  After being banished to Vegas in June, in his first 31 games, he goes a ridiculous .410/.490/.680, and cuts his K rate down to one every 7.3 plate appearances in those games.  Half the rate of the same guy who struck out 154 times in 135 games in 2012.  Every seeming plateau is cleared by him, and Matt continues ascending.

With him, it was always his bat – his glove is superlative. Lagares-like.  Maybe the bat is catching up to the golden glove.  And maybe the majors is his final plateau. 

UPDATE – MINOR LEAGUE STUDS FROM DEEP DOWN UNDER:

Brandon Brosher, who got off to an exceptional 4 homers in 4 games stretch this year, blew his ACL, so with great reluctance and best wishes for a speedy recovery, he is being moved off the vaunted top 20 lower minor prospects list that we started last week in the right sidebar (in which we update the stats every few days, so keep watching it, folks). 

Meanwhile, Mack noted the other day that one Kevin Canelon has been tossing some mean seeds this year down in the GCL.  So I looked him up. 

With 2 runs and 5 hits and 13 Ks in 11 2/3 innings over 6 games, the 6’1”, 175 lb, 20 year old lefty has been quite a relief.   Hey, I haven't felt that much relief since...well, let's not go there, shall we? 

So Kevin slots into my Top 20 to replace Mr. Brosher.  The other 19 guys on the sidebar of champions are continuing to really do well overall - no one has fallen off the rails performance-wise, so for another week, we'll ride with those 19, plus the newbie Kevin, who "can alone" crack this list.

So far, no more changes...but other wannabes are scrambling to enter the Top Twenty, and maybe some will burst onto the list next weekend!  I’ll be watching.

Last week I wrote about who's HOT down in the minors.   I mean, HOT!  For instance, Wuilmer Becerra continues to scorch in Kingsport, with 15 hits, including 4 homers, in a 7 game span.  He is a human cyborg until he proves otherwise.

His teammate Oswald Caraballo?  8 for 20 in his past 5 starts - must be something cooking there in Kingsport.

Matt Oberste in Savannah?  8 for 21 with 3 long balls in his past 4 games. .324/.360/.502 in 55 games this year – sweet.

Blake Taylor?  Tossed a gem on Tuesday.  His new change up was working.  Another shrewd trade by Mr. Alderson.  Sorry, Ike…we prefer Blake.

Brooklyn Boys that are running a high fever?

Conforto?  Our #1 man in 2014 gets an immediate bump from Grade B to Grade A after 6 hits and just 1 K in his first 4 pro games. 

Michael Katz?  8 for 15 in his last 4 games. 

Young stud Jhoan Urena?  He’s up to .308/.371/.448. 

Amed Rosario? The 18 year old future SS superstar (we hope): improving constantly.  In 44 at bats in his last 10 games, .295 with just 4 Ks. 
Marcos Molina and Corey Oswalt?  The last starts for both were gems.

So the HOT future stars remain in FUEGO territory, and I for one am very excited to track them.  That’s just 10 of the 20…watch the sidebar for all of them.  Track them with a big smile.

TRADE UPDATE:  As I post this, only rumors.  All I am sure about is Ruben Tejada is going nowhere…he will be the last Met standing.  Seriously, keep watching the Macks Mets website for the latest rumors.  Mack knows what trades will happen before Sandy does, I’m starting to think. 

Enough of my ruminating.  Whaddya think?

Oh…and have a great day!