LOWER MINORS IB, OF, AND CATCHERS – NOT A SURPLUS! AND LOWER MINORS "GUPPY" UPDATE!

LOWER MINORS IB, OF, AND CATCHERS – NOT A SURPLUS!

AND LOWER MINOR LEAGUE “GUPPY” UPDATE by Tom Brennan

Over the last two Sunday articles, I presented my thoughts on whom I see making up a surplus in pitching and middle infielders in the Mets minor
league system as a whole – all seven long- and short-season teams.

I thought I’d switch gears to the remaining positions this week, namely
OF, 1B, 3B, and catcher, but just focus on those from the short season teams only. 

I do, as most of you readers know, a Top 20 ranking that is shown in the right sidebar (once you scroll down on it) – but who are the guys who best represent the above positions and have real MAJOR LEAGUE upside?

More than with middle infielders, a lack of power is a serious obstacle for these positions, which are typically viewed as power positions. After power for these positions, I look at average and on base %; strikeout rate; and stolen bases.  Not above average in essentially all those categories, and you may be the next Zach Lutz.  Which as we’ve seen is good on the minor league level, but just isn't good enough to crack a GOOD major league line up - which is what we ultimately want.  And at least an average fielder to boot (or hopefully not to boot).
 
OUTFIELD
Let’s start with a name everyone is familiar with:

Michael Conforto.  OK, Conforto won't be confused with Billy Hamilton on the bases.  But he projects to be above average in every other category I listed above.  Oft written about, and a future major league all star, let's hope.

After Conforto, which other OF prospect else might make a real future major league impact?  Of course, the answer for these short season leagues is “very hard to tell.”  In recent years, Darrell Ceciliani and Cory Vaughn had stron inaugural OF seasons in Buffalo – both have sputtered to varying degrees since, and the major league future for both as of right now appears cloudy at best.  Having stated that, let’s roll:

Wuilmer Becerra - 19 year old bopper is showing real hitting promise in Kingsport. The man I have dubbed the Human Cyborg for his sudden breakout several weeks ago has shown enough power and hitting ability this year that we can only hope that he jumps to Savannah on opening day 2015, and gets a full year of development in.  Needs to cut the Ks, though.

John Mora - giving us everything but power.  No homers this year makes John a long shot as an impact major leaguer. We see the model of Eric Young Jr. as an example of how a no-power guy needs to otherwise be exceptional (high on base, tons of steals, great D) to have an impact major league career, which EY Jr has fallen short of. 

Oswald Caraballo - decent hitting in Kingsport, some pop, low Ks.  A possibility as a real prospect but nothing that jumps off the “Major League Impact Player” page yet. He’ll have to accelerate.

Dark Horses in the OF:  as the saying goes, it is not how you start, it’s how you finish. Two guys who played in the GCL together and are now in Kingsport fall into that category, Vicente Lupo and Ivan Wilson.  Both give you an immediate huge red flag:  they are more than prone to striking out.  But both have shown plus power, which is a commodity that is in scarce supply – fix the Ks and maybe a guy who is struggling now shoots past the guy who does all the right things sooner – but lacks pop. 

Vicente has really come on of late, with Ks down to a somwewhat more normal range in recent weeks, and getting on base like he did in 2012 when he dominated the DSL. He copped Appalachian League Offensive Player of the Week dibs, and his OPS was up to .843 through August 19.  And he even stole home in a game recently! He is .340/.483/.638 in 14 August games – WOW! He needs to have a big year next year to get on the real major league prospect track - but he truly appears to be making up for lost time in recent weeks.

Ivan has shown raw power, but unfortunately is extremely prone to the strikeout.  Until some real progress is shown there, Ivan IMO can't really be seen as a legit prospect. But the power seems to be plus plus, so he is worth being patient with – dude’s just 19.

So beyond Conforto, the rest IMO are iffy right now in terms of major league impact potential.  Let's hope they can accelerate and move beyond iffy in 2015.

THIRD BASE?  Three interesting ones.  Jhoan Urena, Eudor Garcia, and Jean Rodriguez.  Jhoan (an expensive international signing) has hit well with some pop in Brooklyn.  Eudor was a 3rd rounder who is a reputed rake.  He’s had a modest start in Kingsport, while demonstrating a good eye & good on base %.  I think we will see the real Eudor starting next year.

Behind door #3, 22 year old Jean Rodriguez has hit very well so far in Kingsport.  In fact, after a slow 2 for 15 start to his season, he’s hit .338/.416/.556, with a good K rate.  My bets are on Eudor and Jhoan, but I'm definitely keeping my orbits on J Rod too.

CATCHING?  The one masked marauder I was temporarily very excited about was young Brandon Brosher who hit 4 homers in 4 games in the season's first week. And then promptly tore his ACL.  I wonder if catching will be an option once he recovers.  We'll see.  Otherwise, we've seen so many Thole and Centeno types come through this organization, guys with decent bats with zero power, or an occasional all or nothing power type like Recker.  The catchers currently playing in Brooklyn, Kingsport and GCL have a lot in common so far: mediocre average and little power.  No one grabs me in this group - sorry.   And Plawecki, Carillo, and Maron are ahead of them. 

FIRST BASE?  You want either a Duda or Olerud type - big power or at least moderate power coupled with a big average. Similar to catcher, no one on those 3 teams is jumping out at me as a future major league 1B.  Perhaps one of the OFs or 3Bs I wrote above could slot at 1B down the road.  In an organization with strong guys in full season leagues such as a Dominic Smith developing ahead of them; a red-hot but less-touted Jayce Boyd who has some similarities to an an Olerud (or more likely a Dave Magadan); or a Michael Oberste in Savannah, I'd say any 1B prospect in the short season enclaves has a very steep road to climb.    HOWEVER…dashing Dash Winningham, our 18 year old starting 1B for the GCL Mets, has had a good and improving inaugural season (.254/.340/.428 thru 8/18), and at 6’2”, 230, he has a first base basher’s bulk.  Worth watching in 2015 for progress.

So overall, while I may, as Mack would say, appear to be be relentlessly optimistic about our minors guys, the short season 1Bs and catchers are not getting me excited in terms of guys who appear to have future impact major league potential.  OF and 3B, however, looks considerably more promising. 

By this time next year, we’ll have a much clearer picture on how a bunch of them, Messrs. Conforto, Becerra, Mora, Lupo, Wilson, Winningham, Garcia, Urena, and Rodriguez are shaping up.  And possibly Brosher, depending on when he returns from his ACL and if he is still a catcher when he does.

Any of you have a different view, please chime in!

NOW: IT'S LOWER MINOR LEAGUE “GUPPY” UPDATE TIME!

For several weeks, I have been ranking the Mets’ short season prospects, listing my top 20 guys.  Ten others, who are performing admirably but not making my top 20, being listed as Honorable Mentions.  

FYI, I still weight towards statistical performance because performance leading to promotion is a fact of life.  Guys should be excited to get on my Guppy List, but probably more happy to get promoted and no longer be called a guppy...and a step closer to going from Guppies to major league sharks - very well paid major league sharks.

In total, the three teams these guys are on guys on have relatively average stats overall.  Notable is Brooklyn is 2nd in ERA and nearly leads in Ks out of 14 teams. Also, Kingsport (with a handful of boppers) leads its league in the long ball department. It is my favorite department when I go shopping  - "I'll take 50 long balls, please, no need to wrap them".  So these 20 top guys are hugely responsible for these teams having above .500 records.  These teams will have averaged a little over 60 games each so far, so the producers are becoming clearer as to what they produce (and what they don’t).

Here’s this week’s prestigious Top 20, with an update blurb on each – there have been so many players’ outstanding relief efforts that I am shifting a few guys around since last week:

A RATED	YOUR BASIC UPDATE BLURB
RHSP Marcos Molina – Bklyn	NYPL ALL STAR. Terrific. 1.58, 73 K in 63 inn
OF Michael Conforto- Bklyn	Started too late to be an All Star. .311/.405/.425
RHSP Corey Oswalt - Bklyn	NYPL ALL STAR.  Consistently fine pitching.
RHSP M. Arias - Bklyn/Kport	0.77 ERA thru Aug 18; K per inn.; 0.87 WHIP
3B Jhoan Urena - Bklyn	NYPL ALL STAR. Hot last 10 gms: .375, 2 HR, 9 Ribs. Near .300. Defense is a work in progress:  48 miscues in 166 career games.
CF John Mora - Bklyn/GCL	Consistent around .320 in both leagues.  13 extra baggers, but still no HRs.  14 of 19 steals.
RF Wuilmer Becerra - Kingsport	Hovering around .300 while showing nice power.
LHRP Shane Bay – Bklyn	NYPL ALL STAR.  1.93, 13 SVs. Speaks for itself. Move him from B to A for his great closer work.
SS Amed Rosario – Bklyn	NYPL ALL STAR. Rumored mid-week to be on his  way up to Savannah.  He has a "rosy" future.
3B Jean Rodriguez – Kingsport	As noted above, he has hit LOTS this year. LOTS
B RATED
SS Luis Guillorme – Kingsport	.280s, fine glove.  Slip him to High B this week
1B Dash Winningham – GCL	18 yr old, offense trending up. 8 RBI in last 7 gms
LHRP Kelly Secrest - Bklyn	1.40, 25 Ks in 19 innings.  Speaks for itself.
LHRP Brad Wieck - Bklyn	1.35, 28 Ks in 20 innings.  Speaks for itself.
LHP Kevin Canelon - GCL	1.74, 31 innings with 28 Ks vs. 1 BB, 0.77 WHIP. What’s not to like?
LHRP Dave Roseboom – K'port	15 gms, 1.74, 1.26, 21 Ks in last 12 innings.
RHSP Scarlyn Reyes - Bklyn	2.09, 39 innings, 37 Ks, 1.14 WHIP.  Excellent.
RHRP Alex Palsha GCL	0.69, 17 Ks in 13 inn. 10 SVs. Speaks for itself.
RHSP Casey Meisner Added to list	Casey made a case for himself with recent strong games and 53Ks in 51 innings.  Stengel approves.
RHRP Jimmy Duff – Kingsport Added to list	6’6, 200 lb 20th Rd pick.  3-1, 28 inn, 22 K, 1.59, 0.95.  He’s on list with that performance, for sure

Honorable Mentions (a # of these dudes are a millimeter away from B):

HITTERS:
OF Enmanuel Zabala Moved to Honorable Mention	Hanging above .300 at .308, low Ks, just .373 slug.
3B Eudor Garcia Moved to Honorable Mention	.253/.323/.339.  Reputed rake is struggling a bit.  He'll get there.
Vicente Lupo	Resurrected hitting prowess in K’port. Up to .270
Oswald Caraballo	Previous B Lister. 28 RBI in 53 games.
Milton Ramos	Solid 1st season.  5 triples, 26 RBI in 45 games.
PITCHERS:
Josh Prevost	Fine relief for Cyclones. Close to Weick & Seacrest in performance so far.
Ty Badamo	A great start in GCL Wed got him back on the board - it is tough for the pitchers - so many are off to fine starts.  Ty in now 27 IP, 24K, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.  Kid from Suffolk County!!
Matt Blackham	Fine pitching in 9 outings/15 innings in Kingsport.
Adrian Almeida	Very solid pitching, but high BB.  Pushing the B list.  And...he is a young lefty (so am I (except the young part), and lefties are in their right minds!)
Nabil Crismatt	24 inn, 24 K, 2.59, 0.82.  0.56 ERA last 10 games!

Proud of these boys.  Lots of great performers.

READER BEWARE!  I AM ON VACATION THIS WEEK, SO STATS MOSTLY CUT OFF TUESDAY IN THESE RANKINGS.  I NEED THE R&R!  SOME GUY'S GONNA GET REAL HOT OR REAL COLD LATE WEEK AND MESS ME UP.  PLAYERS, GET REAL HOT AND MESS ME UP ALL YOU WANT!!!

That’s it – that’s all – signing off for now. Whaddya think?

Have a great day, folks.