The SUNDAY SCOOP: GUPPIES ARE SWIMMING UPSTREAM! AND WE GOT A MIDDLE INFIELD SURPLUS OVER HERE! BY Tom Brennan

The SUNDAY SCOOP:   GUPPIES ARE SWIMMING UPSTREAM!  

AND WE GOT A MIDDLE INFIELD SURPLUS OVER HERE! BY Tom Brennan

“The Guppies are Swimming Upstream” is my latest in a weekly series of tracking the fine young talent we have in short season baseball.  Read it weekly, and be a little more informed – and hopefully entertained!

“We Got a Surplus Over Here” is Part II of my take on how a once-barren minor league system is now one burgeoning with talent.  Last week, in Part I, I outlined what I see as an incredible bumper crop of pitching surging towards the major leagues.  The Mets boat will not be able to contain them all – can somebody say trade bait! 

This week, we get to the offensive surplus – not as deep as the pitching surplus, but some dad gum good players. Let’s jump into that.

The focus this week is in the area of greatest Met Minors non-pitching strength, the infield, specifically up the middle at 2B and SS.

We got some serious middle infield surplus going on, folks.  SERIOUS!!   So if Sandy does not go big game hunting and bag a Tulo or an Addison Russell, all is not lost.

First, we recently graduated the bat of one Wilmer Flores to the majors, and while the jury is out on his glove work (some would say his glovework is manslaughter), I am confident he’ll wield a mean stick up yonder.

Besides Wilmer, which middle infield guys still “down under” ought to be major league capable in the next few years?  Try these 11:

AAA- Matt Reynolds and Danny Muno
AA  - Dilson Herrera, Wilfredo Tovar
Hi A– Lee Mazzilli, Jeff McNeil and Gavin Cecchini
Mid A – Yeixon Ruiz is a new name
Short Season – Amed Rosario, Milton Ramos, and Luis Guillorme

Right now, Dilson Herrera to me looks like the stud of the group.  But several are nipping at his heels, and I think all of them have the real capability of being a future major league starter or utility guy.  Maybe not all will, but potentially.  I’ll touch on each one briefly, in league order.

Matt Reynolds

2nd round 2012, 6’1” 200 lb – can somebody spell “PROGRESS?”  Matt had an anemic season in 2013 in St Lucie in his first full year.  In AA and AAA this year, he is hitting an amazing 125 points higher than last year.  Some question sustainability his .347 average in 2014 given an unusually high BABIP, but as his hitting has been consistent all year, I believe the BABIP has to be due to his adept hitting to all fields and lots of line drives.  Guys who hit for a high average typically will hit the ball hard and get a high percentage of hits on balls in play. 

With Matt, I see 3 possible caution signs – but I am not worried. 

First, Matt has generated few extra base hits this year. But he must be working on it, people, with 5 of his 6 HRs since July 26, with 3 triples in that timeframe.  I believe he adjusted his batting style to great success early this year, and may now be seeing how he can work in more power. 

Second, he has struck out a lot this year (almost once a game since his promo to AAA) – I’ll bet that rate will drop a lot, too. 

Third, some comment that his fielding at SS is solid but not spectacular.

But he has jumped 2 levels this year with enormous success, and I see a future starting IF.  Mets could do worse in 2015 than Matt as their SS.

Danny Muno – he always has a strong on base %, drives in a ton of runs for an early/late in the order hitter, has some ability to steal, and a lot of pop for his size.  Assuming he remains in AAA this year, my bet is he puts up monster numbers in AAA in 2015 and gets called up or traded.  Seems he’d be a great utility guy for Mets, or whomever.

Dilson Herrera

currently 8th on the Mets’ website prospect ranking, Mr. Dilson simply does it all at a very young age (20) – great average (.321), strong on base % (.377), good pop (45 extra base hits), fine speed (22 steals) – all in a smallish frame.  My guess is he will be either the Mets’ 2B or SS by mid-2015, a star for years to come, a future All Star. 

Wilfredo Tovar – great glove, little power, good bat (.296 in 66 AA games), good on base, good contact – major league material, possible starter ceiling, but more likely, due to the low pop bat, a fine future utility guy. 

LJ Mazzilli 

The Mazzilli DNA is showing him to be a real competitor, and very possible future major leaguer in some capacity.  “Junior” through August 14 had a .291/.356/.431 split across mid-and high A ball in his first full year, with 12 of 15 steals – he is proving to be one to watch.  Turns 24 soon, but he is moving along strongly.

Jeff McNeil – dazzled in mid A ball earlier this year, a little short on power but a great average and on base %, and lots of steals.  After a slow start in High A ball, in which he went 5 for his first 35, he hit the throttle.  For the year, the 22 year old lefty hitter has hit a dandy .308/.383/.420, with 16 of 20 steals.  Looks like a future major leaguer and perhaps IF starter to me - a lot may depend on how much more power he adds.

Gavin Cecchini – the 20 year old showed improvement in his Savannah debut early this year, followed by a prolonged period of struggle in St Lucie after his June promo.  But is he ever clicking now!  While through August 8, his YTD splits are .249/.330/.386, he’s done WHAT since July 28?  On base 32 of 67 times, with just 2 strikeouts. TWO.   After just 1 homer in his first 2 seasons, he has 8 this year in a similar # of at bats.  Maybe we’re finally seeing the Gavin who was thought enough of to be a high first rounder.

Yeixon Ruiz - in Savannah is having a nice campaign (.266, .302/.376).  The 23 year old switch hitter is fleet afoot with 13 steals in 16 attempts.

Now for the teenagers:

We have 3 excellent SS candidates in Brooklyn, Kingsport and the GCL:

Luis Guillorme – a 19 year old SS glove, this 2013 10th round pick is also doing some fine hitting in Kingsport, with a .288/.345/.342 through 44 games.  I love it when guys go on a tear, and Luis went on a sweet hitting streak of his own recently, punctuated by a 5 for 6 doozie on August 8 ... that's the kind of attention-grabber that tells me there may well be a fine hit tool to be reckoned with to join with his slick glove. 5'10" 170 is a solid SS frame that should allow for increased power in the years to come. Maybe there will be "Looie G" chants reverberating at Citifield in a few years.

Amed Rosario – what is not to like about a guy who was tabbed the top prospect of the entire Appalachian League in 2013, at the tender age of 17?  Jumped to Brooklyn this year, the EIGHTEEN year old, 6’2” SS has a slash of .288/.336/.379.  Special for that age.  A high ceiling future appears to await Amed, the Mets’ 7th ranked prospect.

Milton Ramos – this 5’11”, 160 lb  eighteen year old SS, drafted by the Mets in the 4th round, started very slowly for the GCL rookie team this year, but in July and August, showed a trend of continued improvement offensively, with 22 RBIs in his last 33 games.  Sweet!  When I see a really young guy do that, I see the possibilities are huge, if uncertain.  The Mets think so too – they immediately ranked him their #11 prospect.

So, as if the middle infield talent on the 4 full season teams weren't special enough, we got at least 3 top notch middle infield prospects (Luis G, Amed, and Milton) on the short season teams. I'm really excited to follow these guys. I hope you are as well.

LOWER MINORS PROSPECTS RANKINGS - WEEKLY GUPPIE UPDATE

For several weeks, I have been ranking the Mets’ short season prospects.  I continue to evolve in my thinking on rankings...I upped the list to 25 for the 3 teams but that seems a bit large, so this week I’m returning back to 20 guys, with those who are performing admirably but not making my top 20 being listed as Honorable Mentions.   FYI, I still weight towards statistical performance because performance leading to promotion is a fact of life, whether you are a banker, drive a tanker – or drive (or throw) a baseball. 

The three teams these guys are on guys on have relatively average stats overall.  Notable is Brooklyn is 2nd in ERA and nearly lead in Ks out of 14 teams. Also, Kingsport (with a handful of boppers) leads its league in the long ball department. It is my favorite department when I go shopping.  So these guys are hugely responsible for these teams having above .500 records.

A RATED’S

Martirez Arias - a 23 year old pitcher starting the season in the lowest of the 3 short-season leagues, and on the A List? You bet...this 6'7" righty has thrown nothing but fine games this year, including with Brooklyn after his recent promotion.  His "worst" game so far? 2 runs in 5 1/3, with 7 Ks.  Keep it rolling! 

Wuilmer Becerra - eased off the throttle a bit lately, but a roughly .300/.500 combo is rare in the lower minors.  He's young and restless. 

Michael Conforto - our #1 pick came out of the gates like a house on fire and cooled recently, but he's locked on an A rating until he gets promoted out of SS baseball.

Luis Guillorme – I bumped him to A – he earned it. Luis started the season hot, cooled temporarily, but has blazed of late.  Fine SS that makes excellent contact.  Very low strikeouts of late, the sign of a quality contact hitter.  Closing in on .300 (thru Thursday) as we speak.

Marcos Molina - nice write up on Marcos by Macks Mets' very own Chris Soto this week. A young talented hard thrower (Marcos, that is, I know Chris throws hard, but doubt he's quite as young), he is doing awfully well for the Cyclones. Game in, game out.

John Mora - John is having another fine season, recently promoted to Brooklyn. A .300+ OF with some pop and speed.

Corey Oswalt - very solid starter for Brooklyn.  Remains an A after yet another excellent start (none earned in 6+ innings Thursday).

Amed Rosario - high ceiling 18 year old SS who has a relatively high average, high offensive production - and relatively high errors so far, like many young SS.  Nothing that continuing to play shouldn't cure.

Jhoan Urena - a strong steady hitter for the Brooklyn franchise this year. 16 doubles through Thursday gives him the doubles lead on these 3 teams.

Jean Rodriguez - I was keeping an eye on J Rod for a while. Now hitting over .320 with some pop,he’s for real; I had to get him on the list PRONTO!  And why be conservative? With those #'s, he gets a pass right into the A List!

B RATED’S

Shane Bay - 12 for 12 in save opportunities for the 'Clones. Great so far.

Kevin Canelon - another fine relief pitcher, holding opposing hitters at bay.
Oswald Caraballo - OC leads his team in RBIs and hits well and with some extra base knocks.

Eudor Garcia - Eudor has hit a bit of a lull.  He is reputed to be too good a flat out hitter for that to last.

Alex Palsha - fine closer relief work in GCL. Picked up his first blemish on Thursday, losing while surrendering an unearned run.

Scarlyn Reyes - strong and consistently solid - high K/9

Kelly Secrest - strong relief work with a bunch of Ks.  It was tough to figure which worthy relief guys would not make this list.  He belongs.

Blake Taylor - Blake has struggled some after his promo to Kingsport, and his walks are high, so I bumped him down to B this week.

Brad Wieck - nothing weak about Wieck's performance.  The big guy has had a great ERA and K/9 so far, with 4 more Ks on Thursday bringing him to 29 Ks in 20 innings. Woo-hoo!

Dash Winningham - done well for an 18 year old, adding a scarcity - power - to the mix.  28 RBIs in 40 games also grabs one's attention. Should be interesting to see him grow and develop.



Enmanuel Zabala - hitting .300+ (with no homers, but very few Ks) in GCL.  He rounds out the latest Top 20.

HONORABLE MENTIONS - 10 more guys who should be proud of their performance to date:

Adrian Almeida - pitched well, BB up (21 in 32 innings thru Thursday).

Tyler Badamo - the Long Island native is pitching well in relief and as a starter, including a solid 5 inning outing Thursday. Nice stuff.

Andrew Church - tough start, MUCH improved of late.

Casey Meisner - fine pitching in 6 of last 7 outings. The 19 year old righty is on the roll the Mets expected when he was an early draft pick in 2013.

Josh Prevost - nice relief work from yet another pitcher in Coney Island.

Milton Ramos - strong prospect, surprising # of RBIs, with 24 in 41 games. Five triples - Jose Reyes approves.

David Roseboom - another fine reliever, this one a 22 year old lefty with 21 Ks in his last 14 1/3 and 1.45.  Ran out of Top 20 room this week.

Ismael Tijerina - following in the Jake deGrom mode, this infielder turned relief pitcher is doing quite nicely in his transition.

Ty Williams - fine relief work (boy, we got lots of relievers doing well on these 3 teams).  Cool to have the first name of Ty Cobb and the last name of Ted Williams too.

Jimmy Duff - a great ballplayer's name, had to add Jimbo to the list.  Dude is 3-1, 1.80, with a 0.96 WHIP in 10 games over 25 innings for Kingsport.  That gets it done.  18:5 strikeout to walk ratio too.   Duff Said.

Phew! Long, but you weren’t going anywhere, right? That’s it.  I'm done.

So weigh in, comrades.  And check out the stats sidebar at all times!

Believe what you will - but I think there’s gold in them thar hills.

Have a great day!