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9/25/14

Morning Report – September 25 – Sandy, Cesar Puello, Pen, Brandon Nimmo, Toronto Blue Jays

So, I sat back and mulled over the three year extension to Sandy Alderson and the announcement that Terry Collins will be back to manager next season. I already said on the post I put up when the rumors came out that I was happy with the clarity of the Alderson decision. The team that was on the field in the second half of the season showed the promise of the future. It also was without its best player (David Wright), its best starter (Matt Harvey) and its closer (Bobby Parnell).

I’m not surprised at the Collins announcement either, though I’m glad it only covered a one-year period. I’ll tell you this… if the 2015 Mets don’t come out of the starting gate as one of the top teams in their division, Collins will not be around by the all-star break.

What I’m curious about is what will happen to Paul DePodesta (VP, Player Development and Scouting) and J.P. Ricciardi (Special Assistant to Alderson). Both have impressive resumes of their own and are capable of ‘general managing’ their own teams in this game. Are they going to hang around to see if Alderson’s long term plan comes to fruition?

We here at Mack’s Mets have been blessed this year with the addition of Thomas Brennan as a staff writer. He has added a level of coverage of the short season teams that this site (or any other Mets site) has never seen. What it also has done was frankly point out that the level of talent that the Alderson people are bringing into this organization just keeps on getting better and better.

I look forward to Alderson moving into the off-season with a list of his excessive starting pitches next to him. I hope he picks up the phone and doesn’t wait for someone to call him. The Mets are quickly developing serious depth of talent on some positions and they have the opportunity to package a juicy deal to get the kind of ‘superstar’ player they need for the few positions they don’t seem to have an internal solution for.

The extension of Alderson takes that drama off the table.

Now, let’s let the man do what he does in the off-season



We at Mack's Mets would like to stop and thank all of you that participate in the comments in the Morning Report on a daily basis. Over the past 30 days, we have been averaging over 2500+ page views per day and have topped double digit comment threads in every morning post in August and September except for two Saturday mornings on 8-9 and 9-13.

Thank you.





Comment From Guest - Why have the New York Mets refused to bring up Cesar Puello after the roster expansion?                       
                                  
Dan Szymborski: He’s really fallen out of favor in the organization and wasn’t particularly good this year.  I would not be the least bit surprise if he’s outrighted off the 40-man after the season

                    Mack – You win some and you lose some and this looks like a loss to me.

Remember… a team needs THREE outfielders each year in Queens. The 4th is steak knives. Puello really fucked it up with the drug scandal and then coming to camp like it had nothing to do with it and I can duplicate my numbers if you just let me in the mother fucker game.

Okay, so now you fuck up number two with the Jorday Vadespin approach to team management who happens to be Wally ‘Get You Face Out Of My Face Before I Put it Up My Ass…”

And all through this the home office are sending stable ballplayer that can deliver, better, calmer numbers,

The Queens centerfieder is set with Juan LagaresCurtis Granderson will teach any young outfielder how to better his game and that’s why we need Michael Conforto there as soon as possible. And Brandon Nimmo has now passed Cesar and will be the opening day 1st in Binghanton, then Las Vegas (all-star break), and lastly, Flushing.

Lastly. Alderson is going to bring in a new LF, probably some on a similar high risk dead he had this past off-season with Chris Young. A one year deal

Don’t be surprised the extra bag of pills are already in Puello’s bag and, once the authorities pull him over, he’ll be working the taco line in a Mexican He-She bar, asking if you wanted your fajitas with corn or flour tacos.

You think I’m kidding?

I’ve seen worst.



I’ve noticed in the comments section of various Morning Reports that we all are wondering if the Mets have to go outside their organization to fill in their 2015 pen.

I think we can all agree that Vic Black, Josh Edgin (L), Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Rafael Montero, and Bobby Parnell (DL) will be members of this pen. That’s six pitchers, or five if Parnell isn’t ready come opening day.
This leaves a various amount of both relievers and minor league starters that are ready to take the next step professionally.

The are: Dario Alvarez (L), Buddy Carlyle, Dana Eveland (L), Gonzalez Germen, Erik Goeddel, Scott Rice (L), Carlos Torres, Jeff Walters, Darin Gorski (L), Jack Leathersich (L), John Lannon (L), Chase Bradford, John Church, Cory Mazzoni, Zack Thornton, and Logan Verrett.

That’s 16 internal options to fill a couple of slots. That’s how much internal talent this team has right now coming off the mound.

My guess is that the addition of Montero to the pen will be a huge upgrade and the entire package could be one more pitcher away from one of the best in the national league.



Brandon Nimmo, OF (No. 3) - Nimmo's process of breaking down his body and building it back up again began last year in mid-October, when the outfield prospect began a diet and exercise regimen to shed a significant chunk of his roughly 208 pounds. A month later, Nimmo reported to the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., where trainers taught him to put the weight back on the right way.

Working alongside established stars such Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen and Chicago's Starlin Castro, Nimmo spent five to six hours a day training to improve his body control, flexibility, vision and nutrition. Combined with plenty of baseball activities, that work allowed Nimmo to bulk back up to a leaner, fitter 208 pounds by the start of Spring Training.

"It was great for me," said Nimmo, whose breakout 2014 season included a .278/.394/.426 line over two levels, as well as a stark decrease in his strikeout rate. "I think that's been the translation into this season and the [increased] power numbers that you guys saw. But it's also just me maturing. I'm 21 years old. I still have more growing to do. I still have more fill-out and more strength to get."

The 13th overall pick in the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, Nimmo should reach Triple-A Las Vegas at some point next summer. http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/95849306/mets-farmhands-take-right-mindset-into-2015

  Mack – Nimmo isn’t a lock to be the 2016 Mets left fielder, but he is the front runner of a basically lean top level outfield prospect projection. Only Michael Conforto can currently be projected as a future major leaguer, but he looks to be the replacement for Curtis Granderson someday in right.

My hopes is the Mets solve 2015 with a decent one year signing of a second-level current major leaguer. This would allow the Mets the option to actually slow this process down a little more and return Nimmo first to Binghamton in April (if they chose to).

However…  right now…. Your ‘future Mets outfield come 2018 is Nimmo, Conforto, and Juan Lagares. Anyone in the organization is welcome to make me into a liar.




We now look at the last team in the AL East, our old trading partners, the Toronto Blue Jays.

According to Cot[i], the Blue Jays 2014 salaries are $137,177,700.

We all know who’s playing shortstop here. There has been some chatter that the Blue Jays would like to move Jose Reyes ($22mil/yr – 2015-2017), but, even if that was true, there is no way the Mets would pay him more than they pay David Wright. As said as I want to admit it but the days of Reyes being a Met are over.

There really wasn’t any backup shortstop on the Blue Jays in 2014. 2B Ryan Goins (.284)  and 2B Mununori Kawasaki (.270) moved over to short through various ticky-tacky ailments of Reyes.

Outfield wise, Jose Bautista has the 2015 ($14mil) contract left, plus a team option in 2016. Melky Cabrera ($8mil) is one of the top players entering free agency in the off-season. He also is the Blue Jays left fielder and would fit perfect in CitiField, but it’s tough to figure out if he’s going to be above what the Mets are willing to spend here (remember… I’m operating that the Mets will ONLY sign someone for one year to cover left, waiting for Brandon Nimmo to grow into this position… I expect Cabrera to sign for more than this).

And then there is the ‘other’ free agency, CF Colby Rasmus ($7mil). His expected 2015 replacement is who he split center with this season, Anthony Gose.

Future wise, the Blue Jays have a lot of talented young outfielders. First, there’s Gose. Then there is Dalton Pompey, who will probably start the 2015 season in AAA.

Mack Observation – Toronto seems set in 2015. Gose will take over center and Pompey will grow within the system. I would make a run at Rasmus who has never been a stat guy, but can hit a home run or two (18-HRs in 340-AB, 119-K) . Remember… we’re looking for someone for one year that can clear fences

40 comments:

  1. It's been nice seeing 40+ comments here the last 2 days.

    I think you are dead on with the 2018 outfield. I think Cuddyer would be the perfect place holder for Nimmo. I'd even give him a 2 year deal to avoid having to rush Nimmo and/or Conforto. Year 1 he starts in LF and bats 5th. Year 2 he's either the starting LF on Opening Day or a hell of a 4th OF / backup 1B. The guy can hit and having another veteran to go along with Wright and Granderson could go a long with all of the young guys on this team.

    Move Colon, Sign Cuddyer & Andrew Miller and this team could be a legit playoff team.

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  2. Respectully, Colby Rasmus couldn't be a worse choice. He K's 124 x in only 346 AB -- that's nearly 40%. He hit .225, and that's not exactly an outlier for his entire, disappointing career. An OBP of .287. Yes, 18 HRs in an easy park; those numbers don't translate to Citi Field, which is brutal on RH hitters. He is, to me, a prime example of the dangers inherent in the misguided idea that the team desperately needs "power." No, not really. It needs hitters, guys who can hit -- singles, doubles, and homers. Rasmus is Chris Young all over again, but with more tattoos. He's Granderson without any walks (only 25 this season) The Mets have a chance to be good in 2015. Going after chopped meat like Rasmus would torpedo the season. -- JP

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  3. @Thunder12k

    I agree on Cuddyer.

    But I'm not so sure on Andrew Miller. I would love to have him but the fact that he does not have significant splits (.241 avg v L, .276 v R.) and has been downright filthy the past 3 years may get him outside consideration for a closer's job.

    If you want Miller your going to have to offer 3 yrs, $7m per at a minimum.

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  4. I don't understand the rush to put Montero into the bullpen. It may be where he winds up eventually but his last two starts for the Mets have been very encouraging (12.2 IP, 1 ER, 13 Ks)and hopefully he will continue that trend his last start of the season.

    Also, Carlos Torres should be in the definite category for next year's pen. He had a dip in the middle of the year but has come back great. In his last 19 games he has a 0.75 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP in 24 IP.

    Finally, congratulations on the numbers you've been pulling!

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  5. I also agree that 'reaching' for power guys is not necessarily the answer. What the mets need, as has already been commented on, is guys that can hit, preferably over a .250 BA would be nice for a change.
    (It was depressing every five days seeing our pitcher deGrom having a higher BA than then entire lineup, minus Murph)

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    Replies
    1. Maybe play DeGrom in Leftfield? He was a shortstop in college, lol

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  6. I would be ok if Miller is our top free agent signee this winter. If u have to offer 21 mil for 3 years then do so. He would be a great piece to add, plus with our young starting guns throwing so many pitches per inning, we need as much help as we can get to finish out the games.
    I really wish we had a definite answer as to why Puello has been pooped on this year?

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  7. I assume mets people see Puello as their latest milledge, fmart, Escobar, etc..............

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  8. @Zozo

    If you sign Miller to that kind of contract.....you pretty much burn half of our available money on a LOOGY. He's not going to supplant Mejia/Parnell/Familia from the 8th/9th innings.

    I'm sorry but I'm not paying a guy $7m to pitch the 7th inning or be a Loogy. Edgin and Torres are perfectly fine in those roles for $510k each.

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    Replies
    1. Chris
      I don't see them spending any money on free agents besides maybe a Cuddyer type, so if they spend their money at all I would hope it was for Miller. He has been amazing the past few years and with a bigger park to play in that would be that much better. Also Like you said earlier he might get a reliever spot (which would put us out of the running), so he is more than a loogy to me. Since our starting rotation only has 1 lefty I think our relief corps need to be stacked a little bit more with lefties.
      This winter will be about trades only, I don't like this year free agents that much, so hopefully Sandy trades most of these extra parts for one good leftfielder or some lower minor league studs.

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  9. Thanks, Mack. A tremendous collective Met minor league season made writing about the Mets' minors very enjoyable... lots of individual stories of careers accelerating, reviving, etc. I will, for those who read this post, be starting an every-other-day "happy recap" of each minor league team, starting Monday the 29th at 11 AM, so I invite the readers to tune in for those.

    Glad to see readership on the site is up...it's got great writers like Chris, Herb, Reese, Ernest, and others, and of course Mr. Mack himself. I honestly am puzzled why more Mets fans don't avail themselves of information that will allow them to get their Mets PHDs if they follow and read daily.

    Somehow, Puello got on your bad side. On the bright side, I hear he loves his mother :) Hopefully, he reads what you wrote and wakes up.

    You are right, we have more lethal arms in the system than the US does in its arsenals. Amazing.

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  10. I don't know the man but I can offer this observation on Cesar Puello.

    When the 51s came to town, twice I was there, once in the press box and once in what they call the Fiesta Patio area which is field level in RF. Both times he stood out for his speed and athleticism. However, it was during the second trip that I met him.

    The company event had us there a bit early and as usual the players were doing their calisthenics and warm-up exercises in the outfield. Cesar Puello was the only player to engage with us fans on the sidelines (are you listening to me, Josh Satin?). He not only chatted amiably, but he posed with a little girl for her Dad to get a picture. He was all smiles and kindness to us that day.

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  11. Two comments:

    (1) I think Nimmmo may open the year in Vegas rather than Binghamton as Mack writes.

    (2) Granderson will not be a starting OF in 2017 so the OF will change before 2018. I suppose it's possible the OF in 2018 is Nimmo, Lagares, and Conforto, but also very possible that Nimmo or Conforto busts or Lagares regresses as a hitter and that the OF is not Nimmo, Lagares, Conforto. Probably much more probable than not that this doesn't happen if you look at percentages.

    (3) Some of these guys that are citing as relief options are AAA / AAAA fodder and nothing more: Thornton, Lannan, Bradford, Church, Verrett, and maybe even Mazzonni. If you want to cast the net that wide that you include AAA / AAAA guys as members of your bullpen then every ML team has a bullpen with 16 guys. The guys to focus on are (in no particular order) Parnell, Familia, Mejia, Black, Edgin, and maybe Montero. Montero, unlike the others on this list, still hasn't proven he is a major league pitcher (starter or reliever) so the jury is still out on him. Some of the other guys like Walters, Eveland, Carlyle, etc. are all "maybe" major leaguers as they are either unproven or one year wonders.

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  12. Brian -

    The Montero move is just my thing.

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  13. Zozo -

    no one will talk about Puello other than he repeatedly pissed off Wally

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  14. Nimmo will be in RF, Conforto left.
    Granderson will take his "near Gold Glove" defense to LF next year hopefully, they need to be looking for RF, one that doesn't roll the ball to home plate.

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  15. Thomas-

    You're wrong about ME and Puello... I always liked him and called out early that he would be a huge success.

    In this case, I'm just 'reporting' what I have heard

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  16. @Anthony

    Well when your front 6 in the bullpen is Mejia, Familia, Parnell, Edgin, Black, and Torres.

    All you need is a AAAA fodder lefty to complete it.

    I'm puzzled as to why we are even talking about next year's bullpen. The Mets are rock solid in that area for the next 3 years at a minimum.

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  17. I agree with Reese on the pen. It should be set for a long time to come, with reinforcements ready as needed.

    The top 4 Mets minor league teams were 100 games over .500 combined, for many reasons. So they can't be just grouped into a "they're like every other team" comparison.

    One of reasons for top 4 minor league teams' success is the several relief arms on those teams, particularly Leathersich and Morris, possibly Alvarez, and other guys that can (and likely will) roll from minor league starter to reliever roles(something, for instance, that Robles did very well in AA towards year's end).

    I'm very confident in the pen going forward. I'd only add someone for the Mets' pen if they were a superior talent at a very reasonable price.

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  18. Chris -

    I mentioned the pen just to show the depth in the organization to all the readers

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  19. You're exactly right Chris. The Mets don't need to bring in a single pitcher this off season. Their starters and relievers are all quality major leaguers at the point. What other team can say that? It's so ironic that the Mets could be so tightly wound up in pitching and yet still have questions about being a playoff team. Especially when you consider they're a NY team with a sub 100 million dollar payroll.

    Sandy needs to concentrate on offense. It's that simple. I'd expect Flores to be at SS. Other than that, it seems to me that the off season will be all about finding a RF. Curtis will likely move over to left and so they'll need to bring in a upgrade over a Den Dekker/Cambell/EYjr platoon.

    If Sandy opts to bring in a legit SS, one that also bring above average defense as well as a Flores like bat, then if expect to see a platoon in the outfield with the candidates that are already on the 40 man roster.

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  20. I hear you Mack...I always heard Puello was good with the fans and personable - I don't know the particulars of Wally's issues with him, but my guess is if Wally was bringing up lots of stuff, it was meant to be wake up calls and for Cesar's own good.

    The sand in any minor leaguer's hourglass can slip through quickly, so he needs to make 2015 count, no matter which organization he plays for.

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  21. Thomas -

    Puello always had the tools and showed the potential pop all the way up to the AA-AAA level. That was when he really began to produce, but now we have to question how much of that was PED related.

    I don't even remember anyone saying he reported in bad condition this year. A few people I know that saw him play said he sometimes seemed lost out there... could have been a combo of rust, bad timing, and depression.

    He's not a lost cause yet but he needs to drive one around 280 down the middle of the fairway on the first hole next season.

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  22. I hope puello doesnt get picked up by someone else (rule 5) and forces his way on the 40 man and a mid june call up. but im dreaming. Outside of the cuban player i dont really see them spending money this off season. I think they will move some people and make some trades.

    Also the cubs an the Mets match in terms of strength, but both clearly like trading from leverage so the only way they do a deal is with a third team. or for players they dont over value which is their own. Baltimore would be a perfect middle player for them, bc they will want to win next year but also prep for the future. ie wieters will move on.

    Montero may end up in the pen but just for marketing purposes he'd start as a starter.

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  23. Robb -

    I want to remind everyone just how 'close' this team is.

    We go into the doubleheader today at 40-32 since 10 games before the all-star break.

    And that was without Harvey, Parnell and only half of Wright

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  24. @Robb

    Just to clarify to everyone....Cesar Puello IS already on the 40 man roster and IS NOT eligible for the Rule 5 draft or minor league free agency because of it.

    We will not be at risk of losing Cesar Puello until April 1st when 25 man roster decisions need to be made. We burned his last option year this season so he will be out of options come the end of spring training.

    If he does not make the team, Sandy will have to try and pass him through waivers in order to assign him to AAA.

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  25. Seems everyone is a little quick to comment on hearsay and more hearsay...as a 51's season ticket holder, who watch Puello play all 2014 season, I can't help but wonder why all the hate? First, I question the fact that he "pissed" off Wally- he may have frustrated Wally with inconsistency, but the kid seems eager to learn and be coached. Wally surely didn't look "pissed off" in his interactions with Puello. Secondly, the comments about pills in his bag are inappropriate, based on hater mentality and just offensive. Puello is a kid who listened to a trainer during an injury and naive as they come. He has talent and is learning better decisions at the plate; he made several big league defensive plays this season, and keeps stealing bases. He will play somewhere in the MLB while you are eating tacos at a taco bar and sipping on your hateraide...

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  26. Puello may need to use his Sandy wedge too. He is a puzzle, and perhaps it was PEDs in 2013. After his 50 game suspension in 2013, he went to winter ball and to my surprise did horribly there, so it was not just this season that was a downer. It is a longer stretch.

    Be a shame with all the tools he has if his career falters further.

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  27. Anonymous -

    Yeah, I went overboard on Puello and tried to be a cute writer. My apologies to you and him.

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  28. I still believe in Puello's talent. He could be a strong platoon partner in LF next year with his numbers against lefties.

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  29. @soto, I jumped the gun. i assumed he wouldnt be on the 40 man/25 man roster come spring time and would have to pass through waivers. which i think he will unless the astros or someone like that wants to stash him.

    I think they are close too Mack. I think 2 of the current rotation will be gone and murphy too by the start of the season next year. not sure which two, could be any but degrom as wheeler has tremendous value too.

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  30. I think that they might start Puello in Queens as a 5th OF to see if he can work out as a platoon and defensive replacement. Kirk and MDD are redundant, so why not give Cesar a shot rather than try to pass him through waivers without trying. If he flops, you can always DFA him and would have a better chance of passing through waivers. Does anybody know if a team claims his whether or not they can immediately assign him to the minors or would he have to be added to their 25 man? I don't know what happened with him, but he still has some possibilities to be the sort of player that the mets could really use.

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  31. I don't know if all the winter ball slots are taken and if Puello can repeat, but I'd send him back for winter ball if I could. He could just be a strictly platoon vs lefty pitchers, late inning defense replacement, pinch hitter/runner for Mets next year. His stats show real struggles vs. righties, but has hit lefties real well in recent years. Which with his superior tools is better than Scott Hairston the past 2 seasons he's been in the bigs.

    His hitting improves, and he then becomes someone to contend with, since his tools seem to be as good as anyone's in the game, just about. But he has to hit more. Otherwise he is a role player at best.

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  32. F Mart had a lot of talent too and many were upset when Sandy let him go. Where's he now? I think he played AAA for the Yanks this season and was never called up.

    If Puello deserves to be in Queens, he'll be there. Remember, he simply didn't hit enough in Vegas of all places and that's why he didn't play everyday or ever make it to Flushing in 2014.

    Will he in 2015? He better do great this spring...

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  33. Tom's comment about Puello made me wonder about this site's plans for the off-season. It's so hard for us to keep up with individual performance by Mets farmhands, given all the various teams they play for in the Winter.

    Will there be day-to-day coverage on the site?

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  34. best Mets site on the web hands down....GREAT writers and theres nothings close. To me lets give Flores the shot at SS next year. I just would hate to see him get lost in the SS shuffle and then end up on someone else's roster and do a 25hr/75-80rbi number. Also can someone please tell me why SA let Turner go for chump change? Was it the pie in the face stuff? Either Duda has to get ALOT better against lefties or we have to think about a right hand bat their after a big dropoff the last 5/6 weeks and being dreadful against southpaws. As far as all this adding a power bat stuff there already on the roster. Duda, Wright, Grandy, Travis and Flores should ALL be capable of 20+hr and with our pitching and outfield defense it should be enough to at least get us to June and then its up to Sandy and Co. to finally act like were a contending team. ALSO I would love to talk Mets with anyone either by Skype, phone or email...let me know.. seagren@verizon.net

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  35. Metsiac -

    Good question...

    I know you can go to the Mets web site and link on the winter stats there...

    I'll try and keep us all up on them in my morning reports.

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  36. I tried that site last year and couldn't find that info. I ended up checking back and forth at the DR and VZ sites, team by team.
    I hope you can work something out here..

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  37. Bill -

    you go to the front page of the Mets web site...

    on top, is a row of links...

    one is STATS

    click on stats and you will see 5 sub-category links

    the first is WINTER LEAGUE STATS

    click on that daily once the league open up and you will see the composite stats for each player

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