Morning Report – September 29 – Buddy Carlyle, Rafael Montero, Daisuke Matsuzaka, WAR, Kansas City Royals

So, what’s going to happen at Mack’s Mets during the off-season?

Well, basically no change at all.

The Morning Report will come out every day at 8am, though it may have some more emphasis on the Winter Leagues and Hot Stove season.

I know Reese Kaplan will have his bi-weekly post (Wednesday and Saturday – 11am) and I anticipate that Ernest Dove will also continue his weekly post on Friday’s at 11am.

Christopher Soto has a wonderful off-season series of special posts in October and Thomas Brennan has a bunch of things already scheduled.

I can’t predict what the other writers will do, but I am sure we will hear from them if they have something to say.

Just join us every morning and become part of the growing community that shoots the Mets shit via comments on the 8am post. We’ll keep the site up-to-date throughout the day if any big news happens.

Mike Vorkunov on Buddy Carlyle -

Carlyle is unsure if he will try to pitch again. He looks at teammates like Jeurys Familia with awe -- though he has an ERA nearly a run lower with a fastball six miles per hour slower. The end has to come sometime. Still, he already preached to young pitchers how difficult it is just to reach the majors. And to stay. Finally, Carlyle has found a way. "Do what you’re supposed to do every day, just be where you’re supposed to be, and do things the right way," he says, reciting his lessons this spring. "It’s a lot easier to stick around. Especially if you need that second, third, or for me, my 15th chance." http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/09/mets_buddy_carlyle_nears_end_of_long_winding_career_in_baseball.html

Mack – Boy, was Carlyle a pleasant surprise this season… 1.53-ERA in 26 relief appearances. Now… do you match what offer he will get in the of-season from some other team? Trust me, there is always an offer to match when it comes to players like this. It probably won’t be a two-year deal a la Latroy Hawkins ($2.25mil 2015 team option with Colorado), but it will be one of the decisions Sandy Alderson has to do in the off-season.

Rafael Montero's last 5 G: 3 starts, 19.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 10 BB, 21 SO, 0 HR, 1.40 ERA

            Mack – Boy, just what in the hell are the Mets going to do with this guy.

Right now, the Mets have six starters on opening day… Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee.

Additionally, there will be two more ‘coming up’ around the all-star break… Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz.

            And then there’s Montero.

The emergence of deGrom has even taken Montero out of my ‘dream rotation’ projections for Opening Day 2016. This is the primary reason I keep hyping him for the pen. I want my team to have the most talented team controlled pitchers in their system, so the first three guys to go would be the off-injured Niese, the regressing Gee, and the ancient Colon.

This probably makes Montero as your top, young, team controlled, lack of injuries, starter for a future trade. I’m glad the Mets featured him for a few late starts this season. The stats seem to speak for themselves.

Montero is a successful major league pitcher that has to be addressed.

Daisuke Matsuzaka on pitching in 2016 -

“I want to start. But I haven't really put too much thought into whether it's going to be here or there anything. At this point I just want to start."

Mack – I wish him well in obtaining his dreams, but my guess is that will happen only in Japan. The Mets simply don’t have a starting role for him, unless he accepts a job anchoring the Las Vegas rotation and acting as the emergency starter in case someone goes down in Queens… but even that math doesn’t work unless the Mets deal off three other starters. No, thanks D and best of luck in the future


Mets WAR:

Fangraphs
1. Juan Lagares, 3.8
2. Lucas Duda, 3.3
3. Jacob deGrom, 3.0
4. Daniel Murphy, 2.65. Bartolo Colon, 2.1
…
41-(t). John Lannan, -0.4
41-(t). Omar Quintanilla, -0.4
41-(t). Scott Rice, -0.4
44. Chris Young, -0.6
45. Gonzalez Germen, -0.7

Baseball Reference
1. Lagares, 5.5
2. Duda, 3.7
3. deGrom, 3.1
4. David Wright, 2.8
5. Murphy, 2.0
…
40-(t). Juan Centeno, -0.3
40-(t). Josh Satin, -0.342-(t). Lannan, -0.4
42-(t). Rice, -0.4
44. Bobby Abreu, -0.6
45. Jose Valverde, -0.8

We stay in the AL-Central for our search of a LF and SS in 2015. This time, it’s the Kansas City Royals.

According to Cot[i], the Royals’ 2014 payroll is $92,185,521.

The Royals don’t seem to like long term contracts. They have only four, none of which are shortstops or outfielders.

The (current) starting outfield is Alex Gordon ($14mil through 2015), Lorenzo Cain (pre-arbitration), and Norichika Aoki ($1.91875mil-2014, FA-2015). The 4^th outfielder, Raul Ibanez, is also a free agent at the end of this season.

Alcides Escobar is the starting shortstop and is signed through a team option in 2016 ($3mil/yr).

Prospect wise, SS Raul Mondesi is their top prospect, with an ETA of 2016. Additionally, Orlando Calixte (AA – 11-HR, 37-RBI) could be available via a trade because there doesn’t seem to be any room for him on their future 25-man roster.

Outfield wise, Jorge Bonifacio plays a disappointing year in 2014 at AA (.230). Bubba Starling (ETA-2016) is the future.

Mack Observation – The farm system for the Royals seen very thin and they don’t seem to have a 2015 replacement for either Ibanez or Aoki. I don’t see anyone here to go after. I’d move on.

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[i] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/kansas-city-royals/