I started to
write a column this morning about the excess amount of shortstops (on paper)
that the Red Sox now have. Yes, MLB-TV has Hanley
Ramirez playing in the outfield, but frankly, the last thing the Sox
need is another outfielder. It’s my guess that current shortstop Xander Bogaerts is in play and could be moved to a
team looking for a young (21-yrs old) prospect middle infielder.
I was going
to break out the numbers and put together a mock trade for one of the three
starters the Mets are trying to ship, but frankly, I stopped writing the column
and wrote this instead.
The Red Sox
don’t want Jon Niese, Dillon
Gee, or Bartolo Colon. They have their
own internal list of back end starters that can fill that bill.
And that
leads to the bigger problem. It’s not finding someone that will trade you a
shortstop… it’s finding something another team will accept as a trading partner
for one of their young prospects.
I’m not sure
the Mets will ever move these guys properly before guys like Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero,
and Steven Matz should be replacing them. You
know my plans for Montero.
Who ever
thought a guy that hit 30+ home runs a couple of years agon would be traded for
‘international pool money’? Is this the future for Gee or Niese? My guess is
Colon will play out his contract, Niese is safe until the all-star break, and
Gee could not survive spring training.
Amazing.
Continuing with the National League, I am once again surprsied with the amount of lefties some of these teams had in their pro-pen last season.
Her's the list:
| Games | IP | K | ERA | WHIP | |||
| Braves | |||||||
| Luis Avilan | 62 | 43.1 | 25 | 4.57 | 1.57 | ||
| James Russell | 22 | 24.1 | 16 | 2.22 | 1.03 | ||
| Chasen Shreve | 15 | 12.1 | 15 | 0.73 | 1.05 | ||
| Ian Thomas | 16 | 10.2 | 13 | 4.22 | 1.5 | ||
| Marlins | |||||||
| Grant Dayton | AAA - 50 | 72 | 79 | 3.13 | 1.33 | ||
| Mike Dunn | 75 | 57 | 67 | 3.16 | 1.21 | ||
| Brian Flynn | 2 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 2.14 | ||
| Brad Hand | 32 | 111 | 67 | 4.38 | 1.36 | ||
| Dan Jennings | 47 | 40.1 | 38 | 1.34 | 1.54 | ||
| Phillies | |||||||
| Elvis Araujo | AA - 43 | 50 | 50 | 3.42 | 1.42 | ||
| Antonio Bastardo | 67 | 64 | 81 | 3.94 | 1.2 | ||
| Jake Diekman | 73 | 71 | 100 | 3.8 | 1.42 | ||
| Mario Hollands | 50 | 47 | 35 | 4.4 | 1.4 | ||
| Cesar Jiminez | 16 | 16 | 8 | 1.69 | 1.31 | ||
| Nats | |||||||
| Jerry Blevins | 64 | 57.1 | 66 | 4.87 | 1.24 | ||
| Xavier Cedeno | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3.86 | 1.43 | ||
| Matt Grace | AAA - 50 | 77 | 62 | 1.17 | 1.1 | ||
| Matt Thornton | 18 | 11.1 | 8 | 0 | 1.06 | ||
| Arizona | |||||||
| Eury De La Rosa | 25 | 36.2 | 32 | 2.95 | 1.39 | ||
| Will Locante | A - 43 | 53 | 57 | 1.53 | 1.02 | ||
| Oliver Perez | 68 | 58.2 | 76 | 2.91 | 1.26 | ||
| Rockies | |||||||
| Rex Brothers | 74 | 56.1 | 55 | 5.59 | 1.85 | ||
| Christian Fredrich | 16 | 24.1 | 27 | 5.92 | 1.44 | ||
| Boone Logan | 35 | 25 | 32 | 6.84 | 1.68 | ||
| Kraig Sitton | AA - 48 | 66 | 43 | 3.68 | 1.32 | ||
| LAD | |||||||
| Daniel Coulombe | 5 | 4.1 | 4 | 4.15 | 1.62 | ||
| J.P. Howell | 68 | 49 | 48 | 2.39 | 1.14 | ||
| Paco Rodriguez | 19 | 14 | 14 | 3.86 | 1.14 | ||
| Padres | |||||||
| Frank Garcas | 15 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Alex Torres | 70 | 54 | 51 | 3.33 | 1.46 | ||
| Giants | |||||||
| Jeremy Affeldt | 62 | 55.1 | 41 | 2.28 | 1.1 | ||
| Mike Kickham | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.25 | 4.5 | ||
| Javier Lopez | 65 | 37.2 | 22 | 3.11 | 1.33 | ||
| Cubs | |||||||
| Eric Jokisch | 4 | 14.1 | 10 | 1.88 | 1.53 | ||
| Joseph Ortiz | AAA - 15 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1.56 | ||
| Zak Rosscup | 18 | 13.1 | 21 | 9.45 | 1.95 | ||
| Wesley Wright | 58 | 48.1 | 37 | 3.17 | 1.39 | ||
| Cards | |||||||
| Randy Choate | 61 | 36 | 32 | 4.5 | 1.11 | ||
| Sam Freeman | 44 | 38 | 35 | 2.61 | 1.39 | ||
| Marco Gonzalez | 10 | 34.2 | 31 | 4.15 | 1.53 | ||
| Nick Greenwood | 19 | 36 | 17 | 4.75 | 1.14 | ||
| Tyler Lyons | 11 | 36.2 | 36 | 4.42 | 1.2 | ||
| Kevin Siegrist | 37 | 30.1 | 37 | 6.82 | 1.58 | ||
| Pirates | |||||||
| Bobby LaFromboise | 6 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.45 | 0.82 | ||
| Tony Watson | 78 | 77.1 | 81 | 1.63 | 1.02 | ||
| Brewers | |||||||
| Will Smith | 78 | 65.2 | 86 | 3.7 | 1.42 | ||
| Michael Strong | AA - 31 | 79.2 | 84 | 2.37 | 1 | ||
| Wee-Chung Wang | 14 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.9 | 2.19 | ||
| Reds | Aroldis Chapman | 54 | 54 | 106 | 2 | 0.83 | |
| Ryan Dennick | 8 | 4.2 | 3 | 11.57 | 2.36 | ||
| Sean Marshall | 15 | 14 | 14 | 7.71 | 2.5 | ||
| Manny Parra | 53 | 36.2 | 34 | 4.66 | 1.55 | ||
Purple Row[i]
on Ike Davis -
The Pirates
designated Ike Davis for assignment on Thursday,
putting themselves in a position to trade or release him if another team
doesn't put in a claim. Waiting for that to happen might be a risky
proposition, but it's possible no club would claim the 27-year-old first
baseman; Davis is projected to make $4.4 million next season, a lot of money
for player who has yet to put it all together.
However, if
Davis can be had on the cheap, he'd be a huge upside play. The 2008 first-round
draft pick has huge power potential, as he showed with a 32-homer campaign in
2012, and can get on base in ways that don't require a hit. Davis finished with
the fourth-best walk rate in baseball -- and was tops in the NL -- among
players with 300 or more plate appearances. Parting with a proven road hitter
in Morneau would be tough, but having a player like Davis who has intriguing
on-base skills would soften the blow.
Morning, Mack. Any of these teams we could send Gee or Colon to for a lefty quality arm? If not, Niese to pen and call it a day?
ReplyDeleteFrom my tablet - getting the hang of it
I don't believe that Niese should go to the pen -- or that he's thrive there. We are all waiting for the arm to fall off, and I don't the up-and-down role suits him.
ReplyDeleteGee could go for a spare part, I'd think. Mets do need a LH relief pitcher and a RH outfield bat for 300-400 ABs. Read: No one named Eric.
The problem has always been the ill-advised Colon contract.
JP
Ugh, sorry about the typos and sloppiness.
ReplyDeleteJP
so...
ReplyDeleteis this another example of Mr. Alderson mis-judging the market?
How so? I'm not sure Alderson was in the Sandoval or Ramirez markets
DeleteI believe the team is one the cusp of real contention. Sometimes "the missing piuece" is worthy of a reach or even an overpay. You are not merely trading a players...you are trading for an outcome---Wins!
ReplyDeleteCastro and Ramirez seem worthy of some added cost. Heck, if they think Drew is still a 730-770 OPS guy, he's worth an over paid 1 year deal.
The team is beyond the "Gathering Only Phase>"...it's time to win.
The trade value of Niese, Gee or Colon is likely to rise a little bit once the Big Arms are off the market, but any one of them does not seem to be worth anything substantial in return, so I am wondering what their value might be if two were traded together? Niese or Gee might get a secondary piece back but Niese AND Gee I think could be extremely valuable to a team short on pitching. I mean, you are getting 40% of your rotation filled with proven ML starters, so even if you are not getting an Ace, you are filling two holes at once.
ReplyDeleteAnon Joe F
Not for nothin, but the Dodgers recently spent about a billion dollars on their roster. Last time I checked, they still have NO titles from it. And the Yankees are currently old and terrible.
ReplyDeleteIf Mets fans want ownership to spend a few hundred million on good-above average players simply to win 85+ games a year, then maybe the overall entertainment that comes from your favorite team winning more then losing is a good thing. But I just don't see currenr front office/ownership wanting to throw out money just to do that. I assume (hope) they want multiple title contending teams throughout the rest of this decade, not just a great-on-paper franchise with high priced takent.
don't forget the Angels and Rangers
ReplyDeleteThat's some list of relievers, huh?
ReplyDeleteWhy not just add a lefty BP arm, and also trade at least one of Niese, Colon, Gee for prospects, and go to war with that?
ReplyDeleteMake further changes at mid-season.
I would definitely trade Niese, but if we get nothing for him out of fear his arm will fall off, then put him in the pen and let it fall off helping us win games
I feel like we should all do a quick double take on those aroldis Chapman stats.....Jesus.......im sure Mets front office has to keep that in mind when it comes to their excess starting pitching prospects. Not everyone can convert to the bullpen, but certain all or nothing young fireballers should always get quiet consideration for a move, even if they have great trade value as a starting pitcher elsewhere. Remember, the idea in baseball, just like every other sport, is to fill your roster with best possible players, regardless of their listed position.
ReplyDeleteMy new york football giants have a recent history of drafting and acquiring players at positions said to already be solid. They did it because the value of the player available to take was there for the taking. When healthy the team won two titles, partially due to the depth and strength that came from the overall talent.
The problem with Niese is he's injury prone. If he has simply averaged 180-200 innings a year he'd be a huge chip because of his stuff and contract.
ReplyDeleteThe problems are in his shoulder and heart. He has issues. I can't see the Mets trading any of these arms for anything more than a good bullpen arm or a good low level prospect.
They'd certainly have to build a package to get anything substantial. However, I'd look into moving Thor if it meant getting a good young SS like Boegarts. Maybe Thor and Gee? Thor and Colon would be ideal. I wouldn't hesitate to make that move.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteif your "how so?" was directed toward my comment on Alderson misjudging the market....
Colon was obtained with atleast in part, the idea that when the younger pitchers came along he could be easily traded with value.
Talks of Niese and Gee being traded have been ongoing for the past few years.
Alderson was reported as not trading Colon this past summer because his value would be much greater this winter.
It was also reported that Alderson planned on using Gee, Niese, and Colon as valuable trade chips in acquiring better offensive players at OF or SS this winter.
Now, all I read is that all three of Niese, Colon, and Gee's values are not even close to being worth the offensive talent planned on.
Speculating on trades is like playing poker with yourself; you just can’t do it objectively. There is no market even semi-objectively for Gee/Neise/Colon until the big FA’s fall, and probably not until ST injuries take their toll or even later at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteI’m ready to go with what we have:
C TdA, 1B-Duda; 2B-Murph; SS-Wilmer; 3B-DW
LF-Grandy/Cuddyer*; CF-Legares; RF-den Dekker/Puello
SP-Harvey, Wheeler, de Grom, Gee, Colon
RP-Mejia, familia, Black, Parnell, Edgin, Montero, Neise
Bench- Monell(?), Kirk, and… TJ Rivera!
*Cudyer basically replaces Soup: he can get AB’s in LF, 1B, DH (and in a pinch, 3B—he’s had 174G there in MLB. 148 starts, and long ago in the MinL, 355/122 games at 3B/SS!)
So compared to 2014:
Cuddyer > Cambell
Grandy in LF > Grandy in RF (and Grandy/Cudder even better)
Den Dekker/Puello in RF >> 2014 LF conglomerate
Harvey & deGrom from the start > 2014 rotation
BP >> 2014 1st half BP
Healthy DW(>) > 2014 DW
Late season Flores > 2014 SS combo
TdA 2015 = TdA 2014
If Herrera, Nimmo, Thor & Matz are knocking on the door come jury then… (started playing poker with myself)
@Bob
ReplyDeleteThe SP market has not even played out yet....so who's to say there won't be interest in Colon, Gee, or Niese.
Everyone is waiting to see what Jon Lester does first. That's why we aren't hearing rumors on Scherzer, Shields, or anybody other than Lester.
Once the big names fall, the losers of the bidding will then start to scramble and look at the trade market.
That's how the off-season has worked for past few years. Its still WAYYYY too early to make assumptions on Alderson's offseason performance. We haven't even reached the Winter Meetings yet
If I were running the Mets my first call would be to the Rangers. I would look to trade Gee, Montero, and Mazzoni to the Rangers for Profar.
ReplyDelete@Hobie
ReplyDeleteI don't think Cuddyer is a replacement for soup. Cuddy was brought here to be the full time starter in RF and to spot Duda at 1B against top tier lefties.
So your OF configuration will be more like
LF- Grandy (162 games)
CF- Lagares (162 games)
RF- Cuddyer (125 games)/ Den Dekker (37 games)
@Richard
ReplyDeleteTexas would hang up the phone laughing. Profar was a Top 10 MLB prospect talent before the injuries.
Plus they don't need middle/back-end of the rotation arms, they have plenty of those. What Texas needs is another front-line starter to pair with Darvish (Kenta Maeda??) and some help in the OF.
We can provide neither...
Chris-
ReplyDeleteWhile I think your projection is (alas) pretty accurate, we are a better team IMO with den Dekker/Puello in RF, Grandy/Cuddyer in LF and one of them available as a PH, than with Grandy & Cuddyer in the OF corners.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteThe fact that the winter still has a long way to go before it is played out is why I ask whether Alderson has misjudged as a question.
The way many are evaluating Colon, Gee, and Nieses value here and in reports as being so low is why the question even comes to mind at this time.
IF...and I emphasize IF... the winter plays out and none of Gee, Niese, or Colon are moved as part of acquiring an offensive upgrade to the starting line-up....
then It should be fair to question Alderson misjudging their value as part of his plan to improve this team.
Chris
ReplyDeleteProfar played poorly before he was hurt .231 and poor defense. I believe this was do to the way they used him. One day left field, one day 2nd base, one day right field, a couple of days on the bench, and so on. His stock did go down.
I do agree that they would not take that deal as is but I would try. I would be willing to include Nimmo in a larger trade.
The Rangers need pitching, at all levels. They would love to have Montero. They would take Gee. You are likely right that they wouldn't want them at the cost of Profar.
I know for certain I would not include Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, or Syndergaaerd in any trade for any of the SS that are being mentioned in trade rumors. If that can't upgrade at SS with Gee, Neise, Montero, or Colon then stick with internal options.