Jonathan
Elfenbein @Reliablejon
@JohnMackinAde
Mack The first Mets writer to write about the potential of Jacob deGrom was you !!! You deserve credit.
Miami signed
P Ryan Reid to a minor league contract
Last 3 year
average OPS – Asdrubal Cabrerra: .719… Starlin Castro:
.716… Alexei
Ramirez: .686… Ruben Tejada: .640…
Wilmer
Flores post 2014 all star break: .713 OPS - Age
23
Do the Mets
have someone in their organization worth 13-years, $325 million dollars? Of
course they don’t, but if the deal that Giancarlo
Stanton inks with the dreaded Marlins owner has an opt-out clause, does
it really matter what the numbers are on paper?
Right now,
there are probably four players on the Mets that I would like to see under
contract for 10 years, but they are all pitchers and we know how fragile they
have become in this game. Moreover, three of them, Jacob
deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler are currently under a lengthy team
controlled period, so why fuck with City Hall and start this process early?
This leaves Matt Harvey. Yeah, that Matt Harvey. The temperamental
TJS healing Harvey that won’t even listen to his own agent about controlling
his innings in 2015 so his career gets back to going in the right direction.
Everybody keeps writing that he’s just competitive and this is a good thing for
a pitcher, but did any of you out there consider that he just may be a big pain
in the ass that would be worth much more to this team traded sometime during
the 2015-2016 off-season?
Yeah, I
know… he really is the only SP1 on the team, even if you add Rafael Montero and Steven Matz
to the list, but still, can you imagine the bounty you could bring in
for a guy with this talent? You still would have a killer rotation… hell, you
could demand the team you are trading with to throw in their package their top
rotation prospect just in case one of the five guys I listed above doesn’t pan
out in the long run. My guess is Harvey would bring you a package of three
outstanding baseball players, be them be established major leaguers or top
prospects.
I’ve never
read one word out of his mouth about him wanting to play for the Mets past his
current commitment and though he seems to be in love with the city of New York
(and the Rangers hockey team), in my opinion he’s got future New York Yankee
written all over him.
Just some
chatter fodder to throw out there.
The
Tampa Bay Rays have traded Jeremy
Hellickson to
the Arizona Diamondbacks for prospects Andrew
Velazquez and
Justin Williams.
2014 stat lines –
Hellickson – 27-yrs old – RHSP
– MLB – 13-starts, 1-5, 4.52, 1.45, 63.2- IP, 54-K, 21-BB, proj $3.9mil- ARB/2
Velazquez – 19-yrs old – SS –
High-A – 544-AB, .290/.367/.428/796, 9-HR, 56-RBI, 50-SB – pre/ARB
Williams – 18-yrs old – OF –
High-A: 102-AB, .284/.348/.461/.809 – pre/ARB
Mack – Tampa
is the new Miami
Mark
Appel Update[i]
-
Appel
finished with a 2.61 ERA, 24/8 K/BB ratio and .167 opponent average in 31
innings with Salt River in the Arizona Fall League… Appel went 1-2 with a 3.69
ERA in seven games (six starts) for Double-A Corpus Christi last season after
posting a 9.74 ERA in 12 starts at Class A Advanced Lancaster, where he
struggled to pitch every fifth day in a hitter's environment. He threw only a
combined 83 1/3 innings, so the extra work in Arizona was much needed… it would
be a stretch to see Appel in the Opening Day rotation considering he's only
pitched in seven games at the Double-A level. It's likely Appel will open the
season in the rotation at Triple-A Fresno and be summoned to Houston quickly if
he's effective.
Mack
– I like to go back and revisit some of the great draft picks on the past… like Appel.
AFL Best
Performances[i]
-
Mets
Best
Performance: The son of former All-Star Lee Mazzilli,
L.J. Mazzilli hit .306/.433/.469. He's an offensive-minded second baseman with
gap power and a sound approach.
Let's give credit where it is due. Mazzilii may have a lower ceiling that Nimmo, as per the experts, but he had an A+ season. Nimmo's IMO was a B-
ReplyDeleteLet's see how Harvey reacts if they win a WS in 2015 or 2016. 0therwise, a trade for supreme talent would be well worth considering.
Let's see how Harvey comes back.
ReplyDeleteBut when Harvey becomes the Harvey he was before he got injured the Mets should lock him up like they did with Niese. Buy out his arbitration years and add 2 or 3 Fa years next winter. If he does not want to do that I would trade him for the best package. Remember that the other team will get Harvey for 3 years of arbitration and the chance to offer a QO when he hits FA (so an extra draft pick after the 1st round)
I assume the Mets start with Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Niese and Gee/Colon. In Las Vegas you have Montero (with #3 potential), Syndergaard (with #1 potential), Matz (with #2 potential), Verrett (with # 4-5 potential) and Bowman (with #4-5 potential). When you look at those 5 Las Vegas pitchers you wonder what to do with them.
To me it makes the most sence to trade Harvey after he showed he is healty and ace like good. The Mets could have the following starters after 2015. Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Niese, Gee, Syndergaard, Montero, Matz, Verrett, Bowman, Pill, Mazzoni, Ynoa. Sure, some of them could be used as relievers. But not all.
So it is depending on what you prefer (a rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Syndergaard and Matz vs a rotation of Wheeler, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Matz and Montero)But what do you get for Harvey after a healthy year? What do you get for Montero after a healthy Las Vegas year?
I would settle for the Montero rotation and add 3 or 4 high end prospects for Harvey.
When Harvey does not come back like the pitcher he was before he got hurt............all the above is useless speculation
Jonah
The non-Harvey option you suggest for a boatload of talent for Harvey makes an awful lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteI thought I would just have some fun with the Harvey subject during a slow off season.
ReplyDeleteTry to imagine writing 1000 words a day in this report lol
I have always thought that Harvey was a pain in the ass and will likely be traded after 2016 and hopefully replaced by Molina. Harvey won't get as much in 1st year of Arb because it takes into account lost time to injury. He has been repeatedly insubordinate and has only been about himself so far. Too bad there is not a radar station in Alaska that could give us back 3 quality players. Keep him down south to start, get what you can for the next two years and move him out. He will not sign away any FA years, even though Boras will advise him to. Anyone want to bet that he ends up firing Boras before it is all said and done. Great pitcher, but a total narcissist that has the potential to disrupt a team by constantly making himself a story. He has had this rep all the way back to HS and even had eyes rolling in college.
ReplyDeleteAnon Joe F
Hey, you're talkin' about my friend Harvey! "Oh, Ha-ar-vey!"
ReplyDeleteMack,
ReplyDeleteTrading Harvey or any of the top young arms when they get expensive merits strong consideration. The cash-strapped Rays have used this approach in the highly competitive AL East for a long time with some success. THe challenge is to maintain a team that can compete every year, while dealing those established players. Additionally, the Mets' fan base is extremely sensitive to cost cutting and cheaping out, so it is imperative that the team be successful in the standings AND continue to add guys to the MLB roster like Wheeler and deGrom. If this continues, I would have no problem dealing a Harvey or Wheeler before they hit the FA market, and would probably welcome it. As Theo Epstein pointed out, how many of these big 2nd generation contacts actually pan out for the team in on the field performance?
Regarding young Maz, kudos to him and as we have seen with the likes of deGrom, Lagares, and even Duda, the ranking lists are nice but really not accurate in projecting the minor league assets. While we focus on Flores and/or Hererra as the heirs at 2B, a guy like Maz can wind up prevailing. It is certainly nice to have depth in the system and the challenge is to maintain it over the long term.
I just think that there isn't any way that the Mets would consider giving a pitcher a contract worth 25-28 million a year annually for any more then 3/4 years.
ReplyDeleteAfter the Santana contract, they are rightfully hesitant to go through that again. It bites the team in the ass 85% of the time.
Right now, the Yanks are going through it with CC. I'd hope for 2 great years out of him and sell. I'd do the same with all of the great young starters and I'd keep restocking the farm.
That's the ONLY way to keep a team contending for a long time at the price that's sustainable. Otherwise, the payroll will be up near 200 million in 8-10 years.
Unless they start selling out every game, that won't happen. Especially with the Wilpon's debt which they absolutely still have.
Having a 'Fab 5' rotation is going to get very expensive to keep in this game someday.
ReplyDeleteWould the Wilpons pay $30mil a season to 5 pitchers each?
Mack,
ReplyDeleteI swear I think one of your loyal readers threw that question out to you about trading Harvey if he comes to camp with an attitude about going forward. Since none of us know what his frame of mind will be in March, I say go with it and play GM and if he shows he is healthy the first two months, where does he go, and what do you think you can get for a #1.
Derek -
ReplyDeleteThe Mets would never trade Harvey in 2015, no mater how much 'attitude' he shows. 2015 is the year needed to get healthy and get this team into the playoffs.
It's 2016 and beyond where his future isn't safe as a Met. Guys like Syndergaard and Matz come aboard and the Mets have a 5 man rotation with potentially a minimum of 7 years each in team control.
Harvey then becomes your blue chip trade bait for whatever you need to fill in a BIG crack... and bring you a potential (or two) SP1 prospect that would project to around 2018-2019
Either way, root for Harvey to have a BIG year in 2015.
The time to trade him is after 2016, when he still has two years under control. His first Arb year is going to be light, even if he to win the CY next year because of one year off. I don't know that the Mets will really need a number #1 with all of the frontline starting. I'm glad you brought this up Mack because Harvey has always rubbed me the wrong way with his ego and if you express that thought Met fans go nuts. He has had one exceptional year, but he already views himself as one of the All Time NY greats. He will be on the wrong side of 30 when the Yanks get anywhere near him.
ReplyDeleteJoe F
If he proves he can still pitch at the same level he achieved before his surgery then why should fans ever want to trade him?
ReplyDeleteThe Wilpons own a Major League Baseball team. It is time for them to treat the team as such.
Bob -
ReplyDeleteThe Mets have to come up with a way of capitalizing on their excess talent, which currently lie only in starters and catchers.
We all hope and pray that players like Flores, Herrera, and Nimmo will be big starts come day, but they aren't now or yet.
Harvey may be the only player on the team that could immediately get you two top players to fill those positions and you would still have a 2016 rotation of Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Montero, and Matz