The Morning Report – November 24 – WAR, LHRP

NMWF*

Christopher Soto –

Does this team has enough to make the playoffs? A very rough back of the napkin math calculation can be used to answer this question.

If we take the past 3 years, 162 game averages for every player (1 or 2 years for the newer guys) and extrapolate that across some baselines we could develop our own forecasted WAR projection. 600 Plate Appearances for starters, 200 PA's for bench players, 200 IP for rotation arms, and 65 IP for bullpen arms.

Using the above formula, the current Mets team (again....if they all performed to their 3 year averages and no one got hurt) is slated to win 93.2 Games.

            Mack – Your lips to God’s ears.

You all know I am old school and base my victories on whether or not a team scores at least one more run than the other team.

Chris mentioned ‘WAR’. Do you know how Fangraphs defines how this is calculated?

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

It seems to me that defining this game by formulas like this instead of hitting a ball down the third base line with two runners on and two outs in the ninth, is about as far away from each other’s definition as writing code is to calling my mother-in-law on my flip phone.

I’m going to take Chris’s word on all this, but I will remain skeptical until I see this team play its first inning of the next playoff game in its existence.

Sandy Alderson said that he plans on addressing the need for a second left hand relief pitcher at the upcoming winter meetings. This leads one to assume that this player is currently on some team’s 40-man roster.

Here is the current LHRPs from the American League teams (I will break out the National League tomorrow):

			Games	IP	K	ERA	WHIP
CWS
	Scott Snodgrass		4	2.1	1	15.43	4.71
	Eric Surkamp		35	24.1	20	4.81	1.44
Cleve
	Scott Barnes		AAA - 25	31.2	35	3.69	1.2
	Kyle Crockett		43	30	28	1.8	1.13
	Nick Hagadone		35	23.1	27	2.7	1.03
	Nick Maronde		LAA - 11	6.1	7	12.79	3
	Marc Rzepczynski		73	46	46	2.74	1.33
Det
	Blaine Hardy		38	39	31	2.54	1.38
	Ian Krol		45	32.2	28	4.96	1.68
	Kyle Ryan		6	10.1	4	2.61	1.16
KC
	Francisley  Bueno		30	32.1	20	4.18	1.33
	Tim Collins		22	21	15	3.86	1.38
Minny
	Brian Duensing		62	54.1	33	3.31	1.33
	Glen Perkins		63	61.2	66	3.65	1.18
Balt
	Zach Britton		71	76.1	62	1.65	0.9
	Brian Matusz		63	51.2	53	3.48	1.32
	Pat McCoy		DET - 14	14	11	3.86	2.43
	T.J. McFarland		37	58.2	34	2.76	1.41
Boston
	Drake Britton		7	6.2	4	0	0.6
	Tommy Layne		30	19	14	0.95	1.44
NYY
	David Huff		30	39	28	1.85	1.31
	Justin Wilson		PIT  -  70	60	61	4.2	1.32
Tampa
	Jeff Beliveau		30	24	28	2.63	1.08
	Jack McGee		73	71.1	90	1.89	0.9
	C.J. Riefenhauser		7	5.1	2	8.44	1.69
Jays
	Brett Cecil		66	53.1	76	2.7	1.37
	Colt Hynes		AAA - 49	61.2	53	3.65	1.65
	Aaron Loup		71	68.2	56	3.15	1.17
	Rob Rasmussen		10	11.1	13	3.18	1.32
Astros
	Kevin Chapman		21	21.1	19	4.64	1.55
	Darin Downs		45	34.2	27	5.45	1.36
	Tonny Sipp		56	50.2	63	3.38	0.89
LAA
	Wade LeBlanc		10	28.2	21	3.45	1.08
	Cesar Ramos		TB  -   43	82.2	66	3.7	1
Oak
	Fernando Abad		69	57.1	51	1.57	0.85
	Sean Doolittle		61	62.2	89	2.73	0.73
	Eric O'Flaherty		21	20	15	2.25	0.95
Sea
	Charlie Furbush		67	42.1	51	3.61	1.16
	Lucas Luetge		12	9	7	5	1.22
	Edgar Olmos		AAA - 51	77.2	60	4.06	1.3
Texas
	Alex Claudio		15	12.1	14	2.92	1.45
	Michael Kirkman		12	5.2	3	1.59	1.06

It seems to me that a good target team here would be Oakland, though there are plenty others that have, frankly, too many LHRPs. in 2015.

                                                                                    *(no more Wilmer Flores)