MAJORING ON THE MINORS – CESAR PUELLO STOCK IS RISING AGAIN

MAJORING ON THE MINORS – CESAR PUELLO STOCK IS RISING AGAIN  by Tom Brennan

Did you ever own a stock that has a lot of factors that would cause you to expect great things, and then it did really well for a while, but then had a long period where it pulled back and, although you expected it to rebound, it just seemed to sputter – your blue chip had turned into a cow chip - but then finally started showing signs of life again?  And you still think it can be a GREAT stock, one you’re so glad you did not give up on?

Not me – I’m a lousy investor!  If I were your stock broker, you’d be broker than you are right now!

But in a baseball scenario, that “stock” to hold onto ought to be be Cesar Puello.

Cesar has been in the organization seemingly forever.  He signed very young, and began playing at age 17, hence people’s impatience with him, but he only turns 24 just before opening day 2015.  He’s still a young dude with real upside.  Let me recap on Monsieur Puello:

Age 17 – an impressive .305 with a .350 OB% in 40 games in the Gulf Coast League.

Age 18 – 49 games in Kingsport A ball - .296, with a .373 OB%, and a jump to a .423 slug %.

Age 19 in Savannah – finally a decent # of games, at 109.  Similar average and OB%, but only one homer.  Shades of Dominic Smith circa 2014!  But his inner Roadrunner emerged as he stole 45 of 55, in 2/3 of a full big league season’s # of games.  Wow.

Age 20 – popped 10 homers in St Lucie, so the strong man’s bat was showing some pop finally, but in 117 games, he slipped to .259/.313/.397.  Typical Met fan stuff – don’t get your hopes up.

Age 21 – he repeats St Lucie and injury bug hits, and , limiting him to 66 games.  Still so-so with .260/.328/.423, but he does swipe 19 of 21, a lot for so few games.  Oh, and Biogenesis is becoming an issue.

Age 22 – while awaiting the 50 game suspension in 2013, Cesar explodes in AA, with a .326/.403/.547 slash in 91 games, with 24 steals.  Crushed lefties with a Ruthian .842 slug %, and against righties, he was fine, thank you for asking: .298/.379/.459.  Simply a spectacular, but truncated season, and that was after a slow April.  After his suspension, though, he plays winter ball – I expect him to tear it up, and instead he does terribly.  Stock is wobbling after the drug suspension and catatonic winter season.

Age 23 – a pretty baffling April – June in his AAA debut in 2014, but Puello followed that with a good 2^nd half while Wally puzzlingly continued to play him part time – he only got up 318 official at bats last year - In July, August, and Sept, he hit .284 with almost a .400 on base and about a .500 slug % and still played part time.  Nuts.  You’ve got a guy with 5 tools, let him use them.  He did not hit righties well at all in 2014, but got much better in that regard later in the season.   

So after his puzzling lack of use in 2014, he goes to winter ball and needed several trips to the infirmary to get bench splinters removed from the place where his anatomy meets the bench.   In his team’s first 43 games, he gets into just 23 of them, many in a pinch hit or substitution capacity.  In his team’s first 43 games, he has a whopping 25 at bats!!!  But 12/12 was a great day to buy Puello stock, as he gets a start for the first time in 9 days and goes 5 for 6 with 2 extra base hits.  Causing his manager to realize Puello is actually on the team.  So from the 12^th through the 21^st, the rediscovered Puello goes 12 for 26 with 4 doubles and 4 homers, with 3 walks thrown in. 

Puello kills lefties (slugged .842 and .525 the past 2 years) but struggled vs. righties for most of 2014.  So he can’t, but against righties in 2013 in AA, he was a fine .298/.379/.459, so I just think they misused him last year.  They wasted at bats on veteran guys – Puello should have been up 250 more times in 2014.  In winter ball so far in his sporadic playing time, he is nailing righties (11 for 34, a double and 3 HRs), so that is very promising.

So let’s see: Cannon arm; blazing speed 56 of 66 in steals over the past 3 years in only about 1,000 plate appearances; power too.  And he gets hit by pitches like they are going out of style (115 times in slightly over 2,300 plate appearances), so he never has a low on base %.

Let’s compare him to a different stock that always seems to be talked up by the analysts, one the pundits say to have in your portfolio at all costs: Brandon Nimmo.  Nimmo will turn 22 next March so Puello is almost exactly 2 years older to the day.  Puello had his great AA season at 22.

Nimmo had a fine 2014 start in A ball at 21, but then struggled after his promo to AA last year, followed by a weak winter ball stint, so while everyone seems to rank him higher than Puello, I have to wonder.   Nimmo has to really show something to me this year to show he is as good or better than Puello; Nimmo has to step it up.

Back to Puello: 2013 and 2014 were years of highs and lows, but the two years together totaled only slightly more plate appearances than if he led off for the Mets for 162 games.  So how did his combined 2013 and 2014 stats look?  You judge: 649 official at bats, 122 runs, 41 doubles, 4 triples, 23 homers, 110 RBIs37 of 45 in steals.  .290/.380/.471. 

Conclusion: The more I think about it, the more I think it would be a huge mistake to lose this guy – I think if he is not on 25 man roster come opening day, he can request to be released – no doubt some other team would snatch him up.  I really think he could be another Carlos Gomez.

He’s built like a bull, and maybe, just maybe he will go on a bull market run for the Mets in 2015.

Whaddya think, folks?  And I hope if you celebrate Christmas like I do, or if not, your holiday season's joy will be but a precursor to a fabulous 2015, at Citifield and in the rest of your lives as well. 

Above is a selfie of yours truly (OK, just the feet of selfsame writer), with chestnuts roasting by an open artificial fire and a NY Mets orange jersey as the centerpiece of the shot.  Peace, goodwill, etc., etc…and hopefully you’re not left like this after the gift buying has finally ended: