Tom Brennan - MAJORING ON THE MINORS - 2010 DRAFT STATUS UPDATE

2010 METS DRAFT – HEY, MAN, HOW ARE THEY DOING?

by Tom Brennan

Watching the success of players in a particular Mets' draft year is like watching cement dry.  It cures and firms up slowly. 

In the NBA, in contrast, hot draft prospects are ready to contribute right from day 1 in many cases.  In the concrete world of baseball, a “Nimmo cement block” takes years to solidify. 

Some only watch when a Mets' prospect is touted, is hot.

Not me.  I like to watch cement cure.  Boring, I know.  But that’s me.

Which brings us to the past 5 years' drafts.  How much real cement did Sandy load up on?  How well is the drying process going?  And is the cement turning into that crappy, crumbly stuff or real quality hardened stuff?

Let's find out, with a look at all Mets' signed draftees in 2010 and working our way up to 2014.  (I found earlier drafts bleak, with rare exceptions like Steve Matz in 2009, and Lucas Duda in the 7^th round in 2007, so let’s start at 2010).

2010 brought us none other than the great Matt Harvey.  Stop right there, and you'd rate it great cement.

And oh there is a guy at # 9 who won Rookie of the Year the other day.  And #5 (Dekker) and #10 (Morris) are two of my running favorites.  And #30 (Edgin) is no slouch.

Quite a draft year! A++.

But let's examine the whole batch - here we go (my rating index is below the table):

Name	Pos	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB	Rd	Rating	Comments
Matt Harvey	RHP	R / R	6' 4"	215	03/27/1989	1	1	I need say nothing about Matt, except let’s get 2015 started. I give him 300 innings limit in 2015! Wait, make that 400.  I hear the guy is good!
Blake Forsythe	C	R / R	6' 2"	220	07/31/1989	3	Retired	Decent power, lousy average, tons of K’s.  Next.
Cory Vaughn	CF	R / R	6' 3"	235	05/01/1989	4	3-4	Career has sputtered, due to decent power, lousy average, tons of K’s.  Just .240 after his inaugural Cyclones season.  At best a future platoon vs lefties
Matt den Dekker	CF	L / L	6' 1"	210	08/10/1987	5	2	Unlike Cory, Matt keeps figuring out how to improve.  Hit .370 in 2nd half of 2014 (AAA & majors). He sneaks up on you, and quiets the naysayers.
Greg Peavey	RHP	R / R	6' 2"	185	07/11/1988	6	3-4	Pitches well up to AA, awful in AAA.  His challenge is to fix AAA. Pen piece somewhere?
Jeff Walters	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	210	11/06/1987	7	3	Great 2013 in AA, then a horrific 2014 culminating in TJ surgery.  Will Jeff astound us in 2015?  I see more of a AAAA.
Kenneth McDowall	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	185	08/14/1990	8	Retired	20 innings in 2011, 3-1, 2.25, and promptly disappeared.
Jacob deGrom	RHP	L / R	6' 4"	180	06/19/1988	9	ROY	Slowed early in his career by TJ surgery, he went from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2014.  If you don’t know him, Google him.  I’m busy.
Akeel Morris	RHP	R / R	6' 1"	170	11/14/1992	10	1	I’m going out on a limb with Akeel and giving him a #1 rating, after being picked fans’ choice for minor league reliever in all of baseball.  In 2014, earned runs in only 2 games, hitters hit .103, and 14Kss per 9.
Adam Kolarek	LHP	L / L	6' 3"	205	01/14/1989	11	3-4	Major regression for this lefty reliever in 2014 in AA. 1.71 AA ERA in 2013, 6.07 in AA in 2014.  Can he turn it around in 2015?
Brett Mitchell	RHP	R / R	6' 2"	190	12/10/1988	12	Released	4 years pitching (missed 2011) and his #’s look great (14-6, 3.25, 183 inn, 204 Ks), except his highest level is St Lucie.
Brian Harrison	3B	R / R	6' 2"	180	12/15/1988	13	Retired	A little over 1000 plate appearances yielded .237. Not good enough to continue.
J.B. Brown	2B	L / R	6' 1"	220	04/30/1989	14	Retired	Sputtered in 2011 A ball (.198)
Tillman Pugh	CF	R / R	6' 0"	190	02/19/1989	15	Retired	Another sputterer (.225)
Ryan Fraser	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	190	08/27/1988	16	Released	Very solid #s in 2010-12, but higher minor struggles in 2013 and 2014 led to his shake out. 20-21, 3.68 in 323 innings.
Chad Sheppard	RHP	R / R	6' 4"	210	11/25/1988	17	Retired	Can always brag to the kids that he was 3-1 in his lone year (’11)
A. J. Pinera	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	185	07/02/1987	18	Retired	A nice 2010 (2-3, 2.44) and arrivederci.  Went into the family’s Bread business??
Jonathan Kountis	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	220	03/15/1988	19	Retired	Another sputterer (1-2, 6.22)
Luke Stewart	1B	L / R	6' 4"	205	02/29/1988	20	Retired	Played in 2010 and 2011.  .238 with 15 homers.  Nice try.
Brandon Brown	SS	R / R	6' 1"	180	07/28/1987	22	Retired	Hit the A ball ceiling 2010-12. .237/.305/.353.
Erik Goeddel	RHP	R / R	6' 3"	190	12/20/1988	24	3	A hit in the 24th round. Major league debut in Sept 2014.  Not an outstanding minor league career #’s wise (20-21, 4.02, 8 K’s per 9, 155 walks in 385 inn), but Jake deGrom’s minor #s were kind of similar, so let’s see
Peter Birdwell	RHP	R / R	6' 4"	225	02/03/1987	25	Retired	Another long-retired guy who went out on top: 3-1, 4.68
Jet Butler	SS	S / R	6' 2"	200	10/06/1987	26	Retired	We’ve heard “that dog don’t hunt.” In Butler’s case, “that Jet don’t fly no more.” .216 career
Todd Weldon	RHP	R / R	6' 4"	215	07/21/1987	27	Retired	Another guy who went out on top in 2011: 8-5, 3.35, K per inn.
Jeremy Gould	LHP	R / L	6' 4"	205	06/06/1988	28	Retired	Another guy who went out with OK #’s:  2-5, 3.48, 61K in 54 inn.
Hamilton Bennett	LHP	R / L	6' 1"	180	06/26/1988	29	Released	In the “what more could I possibly do” category, Bennett finished up in AA, career 15-4, 2.38, 207 Ks/219 inn, 1.1 WHIP
Josh Edgin	LHP	R / L	6' 1"	245	12/17/1986	30	2	Josh was a fine minor league reliever overall who defied 30th round odds and is 3-2, 3.20 in 115 major league games as a Mets LOOGY.  Pretty sweet.
Steve Winnick	RHP	R / R	6' 1"	195	09/16/1987	31	Retired	Broken record: another winner. 5-2, 3.25, 61 inn. Just 33 Ks.
Patrick Farrell	C	R / R	6' 3"	210	12/29/1986	32	Retired	.167 in 78 AB’s.  Not happening.
Hunter Carnevale	RHP	R / R	5' 11"	200	08/27/1988	33	Released	Tell these guys, DON’T WIN! Career 8-6, 4.17, 152Ks in 142 inn. Anthony Young had right idea: lose - and pitch in majors!
Justin Schafer	2B	R / R	6' 1"	190	06/12/1988	34	Retired	Nice 2010, then barely played in 2011: .294/.347/.383 career
Dylan Brown	CF	R / R	6' 3"	210	10/21/1987	37	Retired	.192 career – says it all.
Donnie Tabb	SS	R / R	5' 10"	185	12/08/1990	43	Retired	.228/.286/.298 in 127 Pas

An interesting anomaly is that TWELVE pitchers from the Class of 2010 listed as retired/released (essentially the same thing), namely McDowell, Mitchell, Frazer, Bennett, Carnevale, Pinera, Sheppard, Kountis, Birdwell, Weldon, Gould, and Winnick, had a combined win-loss record of 84-57!!  (.595 winning %)

It has been said, “Winning’s not the only thing, it’s everything.” 

TELL IT TO THESE WINNERS!  They just might disagree!


Mack stated in that regard that “One thing I have learned getting to know these guys in the lower levels: most of them retire making their own decision to get on with their lives, go back to college, take a real job, make real money, etc.  They can read the tea leaves and figure out they really don't have a chance to even make the $500,000 minimum major league salary someday, so they quietly move on in the off season.” 

That’s got to be a tough decision to have to make.
RATING SCALE:

1 – future impact major leaguer and performing at a high level

2 – future major leaguer – unclear if he will be an impact player

3 – decent shot at making it to the big enchilada in some capacity

4 – long shot to make the majors

5 – extremely long shot to make the majors

ROY – Rookie of the Year, baby

Have a great day.  Oh, and 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 draft summaries are coming in the days ahead.  Be sure to check them out.