I’m doing my Top 30 Prospects articles
a bit differently – in 2 lists:
·
A
top 10 list of lower minors guys who likely won’t show up until 2017 or later. Already done. See list at end of this
article.
·
Followed
by my top 20 list of guys who are closing in on the big leagues. Guys who could help in the near future or be
trade bait.
Here is the list so
far:
|
20.
Daniel Muno
|
|
19.
Michael Fulmer
|
|
18.
Miller Diaz
|
|
17.
Dario Alvarez
|
|
16.
Jayce Boyd
|
|
15.
Rob Whalen
|
|
14.
Hansel Robles
|
|
13.
Gabriel Ynoa
|
|
12.
Gavin Cecchini
|
|
11.
Jack Leathersich
|
|
10.
Cory Mazzoni
|
Today, selection #9: CESAR PUELLO
I will just recap a
recent article I wrote on Puello, which says it all.
Cesar has been in the
organization forever. Signed
very young, and began playing at 17, hence people’s impatience with him. He turns 24 just before opening day 2015,
still a young dude with real upside. Let's recap:
Age 17 – .305, .350
OB% in 40 games in the Gulf Coast League.
Age 18 – 49 games in
Kingsport A ball - .296, .373 OB%, .423 slug %.
Age 19 -Savannah – 109
games. Similar average and OB%, but only
one homer. Shades of Dominic Smith circa
2014! But he stole 45 of 55, in 2/3 of a
full big league season’s # of games.
Wow.
Age 20 – 10 HRs in St
Lucie, so the strong man’s bat was showing some pop finally, but in 117 games,
he slipped to .259/.313/.397.
Age 21 – he repeats
St Lucie and injury bug hits, limiting him to 66 games. Still so-so with .260/.328/.423, but swipes
19 of 21, a lot for so few games. Oh,
and Biogenesis is becoming an issue.
Age 22 – while
awaiting the 50 game suspension in 2013, Cesar explodes in AA, with a
.326/.403/.547 slash in 91 games, with 24 steals. Crushed lefties with a Ruthian .842 slug %,
and against righties, he was fine, thank you for asking: .298/.379/.459. A
spectacular short season, despite a slow April.
After his suspension, though, he plays winter ball – does terribly. Puzzling.
Age 23 – a pretty
baffling April thru June in his AAA debut in 2014, but Puello followed that
with a good 2nd half while Wally puzzlingly continued to play him
part time – he only got up 318 official at bats last year. July - Sept, he hit
.284 with almost a .400 on base and about a .500 slug % playing part time. Nuts.
You’ve got a guy with 5 tools, let him use them. He did not hit righties well in 2014.
So after his puzzling
lack of use in 2014, he goes to winter ball and needed several trips to the
infirmary to get bench splinters removed from the place where his anatomy meets
the bench. In his team’s first 43
games, he gets into just 23 of them, many in a pinch hit or substitution
capacity. In his team’s first 43 games,
25 at bats!!!
But 12/12/14 was a
great day to buy Puello stock, as he gets a start for the first time in 9 days
and goes 5 for 6 with 2 extra base hits.
Causing his manager to realize Puello is actually on the team. So from the 12th through the 21st,
the rediscovered Puello goes 12 for 26 with 4 doubles and 4 homers, with 3
walks thrown in. (Then the season ends)
Puello kills lefties
(slugged .842 and .525 the past 2 years) but struggled vs. righties for most of
2014. So he can’t, but against righties
in 2013 in AA, he was a fine .298/.379/.459, so I just think they misused him
last year. They wasted at bats on veteran guys – Puello should have been
up 250 more times in 2014.
In winter ball in his
sporadic playing time, he was nailing righties (11 for 34, a double and 3 HRs),
so that is very promising.
So let’s see: Cannon arm; blazing speed (56 of 66 in
steals over the past 3 years in only about 1,000 plate appearances); power
too. And he gets hit by pitches like
they are going out of style (115 times in slightly over 2,300 plate
appearances), so he never has a low on base %.
Let’s compare him to
a different player that always seems to be talked up by the analysts: Brandon
Nimmo.
Nimmo will turn 22
next March so Puello is almost exactly 2 years older to the day. Puello
had his great AA season at 22.
Nimmo had a fine 2014
start in A ball at 21, but then struggled after his promo to AA last year,
followed by a weak winter ball stint, so while everyone seems to rank him
higher than Puello, I have to wonder. Nimmo has to really show
something to me this year to show he is as good or better than Puello; Nimmo
has to step it up.
Back to Puello: 2013
and 2014 were years of highs and lows, but the two years together totaled only
slightly more plate appearances than if he led off for the Mets for 162
games. So how did his combined 2013 and
2014 stats look? You judge: 649 official
at bats, 122 runs, 41 doubles, 4 triples, 23 homers, 110 RBIs, 37 of 45 in
steals. .290/.380/.471.
Conclusion: I think it would be a huge mistake to lose this guy. I really think he could be another Carlos Gomez. We’ll see in spring training.
MY
TOP 10 LOWER MINORS LIST:
#
1 - Marcos Molina
#2
– Michael Conforto
#3
– Amed Rosario
#4
– Dominic Smith
#5 - Jhoan Urena
#6
– Vicente Lupo
#7
– Wuilmer Becerra
#8
– Luis Guillorme
#9 - Casey Meisner
#10 - Milton Ramos
If you consider that Murphy, Flores and Cuddyer can play 3B, Tejada and Flores can play SS, Tejada, Murphy and Tejada can play 2B and Duda, Cuddyer, Mayberry, Murphy and Flores can play 1B, I think the team could forego Eric Campbell's "versatiility" in favor of Puello's speed and power, as well as defensive prowess to replace Cuddyer late in games. Campbell has options. den Dekker has options. Puello does not. It seems a simple decision to me.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Reese. Unless Puello stinks up camp this spring, that's the direction I go in. get him on the 25 man.
ReplyDeleteUnder that scenario, poor den Dekker would miss being on the squad on opening day - tough to take after he hit about .375 combined in AAA and majors from late June on. Tear up AAA and Matt can show 2014 was not a fluke.
While I pick on Nimmo a bit in this article, I saw an article this AM indicating that "coming in at #18 is Brandon Nimmo...the MLB Yearbook is high on Nimmo as the following description attests.
ReplyDelete“Because he works a lot of walks, Nimmo is more of an OBP guy than a batting-average hitter. He has started to show some pop the past two seasons, and should top out as a 20-homer threat. Citi Field caps his power upside, but he’s an on-base machine with pop.”
I want to see an explosive year out of Nimmo in 2015.
We are at an interesting point in regards to Nimmo.
ReplyDeleteValue wise....
Nimmo currently is an extremely valuable commodity because of the fact that he produces a high OBP (.350+) and brings 15 HR pop.....as a CF.
Something that only 3 MLB players did in 2014. Mike Trout,Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez.
However, if he proves that he cannot handle CF at the MLB level.....then his value significantly drops as the # of players who can hit 15 HRs and OBP .350+ is much greater (15 players in 2014.)
Plus there's the fact that he would have to supplant Juan Lagares and his superb defense from the position.
I have a strong suspicion that an OF platoon of Puello and den Dekker would out-produce Granderson over a full season - not to mention they'd be better defensively. But we're not going to see that because of Grandy's contract, and also because "the casual fan" has heard of Granderson ("He hit lots of HR's for the Yankees!) so having him makes it look like they're trying to win. Which is why they signed him in the first place.
ReplyDeleteIt should be noted that the assumed desire of the "casual fan" for more offense is also what's behind the absurd idea to outlaw the shift. Really and truly, I'd rather they let hitters go back to using amphetamines.
Good point, Chris, and I hope Nimmo exceeds everyone's projections.
ReplyDeleteNot to beat the Puello thing to death, but his on base % the past 2 seasons? .380, off of a great (shortened) 2013 and an uneven 2014. 115 career games in CF, though mostly a RF. Every angle I look at this guy, he hits me as a guy who, if it finally clicks, could be a fine starting player.
His minor league #'s remind me of Amos Otis. Then Otis hit a paltry .190 with no homers in 142 at bats in 1967 and 1969. After that, of course with other teams, he hit roughly .280, 200 homers and 1000 RBIs. And a pretty fine glove and 340 career steals.
Adam, only writers for Mack's Mets can use amphetamines. I agree with you on that platoon. Whatever offensive shortfall (if any) a platoon of Dekker and Puello would have vs. an aging Grandy, their defense would far outshine his. Net, I think they'd be as good or better.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we see that come July, if someone wants to take Grandy and his remaining 2.5 years and $40MM off of our hands.
Tom--
ReplyDeleteI agree that Cesar should come north in April. I think Nieuwenhuis will eventually be the odd-man out here as den Dekker should be the 4th OF'er options notwithstanding.
I'd just like to add that while I have Puello at #9 in my full season list, he is my overall #12 in Mets system - I have Conforto, Rosario and Molina from the short season leagues ahead of Cesar.
ReplyDeleteHobie, I agree. I'm a Dekker guy over Kirk as well. Latter has struck out too much for me so he loses the head-to-head with Dekker, IMO.
ReplyDeleteOf Topic.....
ReplyDeletePECOTA projections are out and they have the Mets finishing 82-80.
Missing out on a wild card spot by 1 game.
Thomas, from your keypad to the baseball gods' ears. But I cannot imagine another front office in baseball picking up the last 2.5 years of that contract. The catch-22 is that if he somehow hits well enough for half a season for that to become a possibility, there's no way the Mets trade him.
ReplyDeleteI like Grandy as a person (I mean, I don't actually know him personally but he seems like a terrific guy) but I have to say that his contract - in dollars and years - is the primary turd in the punchbowl at this party.
I find it hard to believe that 82-80 is all we'll do - think they're wrong. Incrementally, at almost every position, I think we can expect to do better, except for 1B and 2B. And have better starting and relief pitching.
ReplyDeleteAdam, the Grandy turd in the punch bowl smells a little too much like the Turd in the Bay we previously endured. Let's hope the current one is less turdy.
When a ballplayer turns turdy, it is better off if the turd is over the hill.
A team "on the cusp" needs to Answer questions...not ADD questions. It's far more likely that Grandy will recover to a 750-780 ops with pop, and a bit of upside versus the pretend platioon of two guys who have yet to accomplish anything.
ReplyDeleteThe win projections seem low--- I'm at 83-87 (I do "spans") as constructed. Below 83 would be a real shame. 83/84/85 is likely.