Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS' 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 - Vol. 1 OF 6

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 OUTPUT – Tom Brennan

The Mets’ 2014 offensive was offensive, frankly.  Hope I don’t offend anyone saying that.  Stinky.  Like limburger cheese.

Not the worst offense, but another substandard offensive year, with some real positives, like Lucas Duda breaking out, Juan Lagares showing he can hit, and Travis d’Arnaud emerging in the 2^nd half.

Key data points of the 2014 Mets team offense (and MLB ranking):

·       629 runs (21^st tie)

·       .239 avg. (28^th)

·       125 HR (20^th)

·       275 2B (12^th)

·       19 3B (28^th)

·       101 SBs (12^th)

So how about some comparative analytics, wherein I forecast my thoughts on 2015 production, with what I see as the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, of course, but you gotta start somewhere.

My plan is to go position by position, see what happened last year, see what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate offensive differential.

Purely in terms of RBIs, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and the other 70 will be due to better performances and improved players.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position	2014 RBIs	Projected 2015	Difference
First Base	96	110	+14
Second Base	73	70	-3
Shortstop	57	80	+23
Third Base	69	90	+21
Catcher	74	75	+1
Left Field	46	80	+34
Center Field	76	75	-1
Right Field	78	90	+12
Pinch Hitting	18	30	+12
Pitchers	12	20	+8
TOTALS	599	720	+121

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork. 

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less wins.  I think that’s the range.

So this is article 1 of 6.  I will summarize my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come - please be on the look out for those:

1.    1^st base and 2^nd base

2.   Shortstop and 3^rd base

3.   Catcher

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters