Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS OFFENSE - 2014 VS. 2015 - CATCHER

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 OUTPUT – CATCHER - Tom Brennan
 

The Mets’ 2014 offense was pretty lousy.  629 runs.   

I did comparative analytics, forecasting 2015 production for the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, but you gotta start somewhere.

I am going position by position, seeing what happened last year and what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate differential. 

In terms of runs batted in, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bringing us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and 70 will be due to better performances and better players.  Just a gut on that split.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position	2014 RBIs	Projected 2015	Difference
First Base	96	110	+14
Second Base	73	70	-3
Shortstop	57	80	+23
Third Base	69	90	+21
Catcher	74	75	+1
Left Field	46	80	+34
Center Field	76	75	-1
Right Field	78	90	+12
Pinch Hitting	18	30	+12
Pitchers	12	20	+8
TOTALS	599	720	+121

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork.  One more step:

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less.  I think that’s the range.

I am summarizing my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come:

1.    1^st base and 2^nd base

2.   Shortstop and 3^rd base

3.   Catcher (TODAY'S ARTICLE)

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters

CATCHER:

 Catcher was a surprisingly productive position in 2014, with Anthony Recker as a backup (and a smidgeon of ABs from Juan Centeno and a grand slam from Mr. Teagarden) not hitting much (.225).  But the catchers combined for a surprising 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 homers, 67 runs and 74 RBIs.

Once d'Arnaud found his stride last year, he did great. After his early struggles, he tore up AAA for a few weeks, returned in late June, and was a force, hitting .272 with a .463 slug % in 257 official at bats. So he finished up at .242 with 22 doubles, 3 triples, and 13 HRs and 41 RBIs in 385 at bats.

So what can I see happening in 2015 in Travis Land?   I can see d'Arnaud getting better as the acclimated starter, starting about 130 games and going .260, 25 doubles, 20 HRs, and 65 RBIs.  At backup, I could see Recker handle the chores again, but Johnny Monell as a pretty potent lefty hitter vs. minor league righties, makes him an intriguing substitute possibility.  For instance, in 2013 in AAA, Monell had splits of .277/.362/.513 vs. righties in 389 plate appearances. So one of those 2 backs up - until Plawecki arrives.

Let's say Plawecki is held in AAA until mid-June for future salary reasons, he likely would then be ready to supplant the other 2 back ups.

It will be interesting to see how this position plays out in 2015, but I can see similar totals to 2014 (say 24 HR and 75 RBI), but add 30 points to the overall average - .260 instead of .230.  So, overall I see a bump in offense at catcher in 2015 over 2014.  Considering the 2014 production was pretty decent, that would not be bad at all.

Catcher – a surprisingly high RBI spot in 2014 which will nonetheless show improvement in 2015 offensively.

Next article: Outfield offense