Reese Kaplan -- How Does Rafael Montero Fit In?

This week there was a Rafael Montero sighting…it’s almost like spotting a yeti or bigfoot.  Terry Collins ventured to Port St. Lucie to see him, talk to him and let him know he was needed.  At least that’s what’s been reported.

Through a combination of injury, veterans’ presence on the roster, and the brilliance of other young pitchers promoted from the minors, Rafael Montero has become the Rodney Dangerfield of Mets pitching prospects.  Lost among the performances and headlines about Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and even the heretofore short career of Steven Matz, Montero was never given much of a look.  If you take a moment to ponder his minor league numbers, it seems his output rivals his would-be teammates:

Name	IP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9
Montero	446	35	20	2.72	1.067	7.5	8.6	2.1
Syndergaard	456	34	19	3.16	1.207	8.3	10.0	2.6
Harvey	245	20	10	3.48	1.290	8.1	9.8	3.5
Wheeler	391	28	20	3.56	1.275	7.4	9.7	4.0
deGrom	323	21	11	3.62	1.284	9.3	7.4	2.3

The problem now first is having him stay healthy.  Last season he had some abdominal issues that kept him from pitching and now this year it’s been arm/shoulder woes.  The other issue is defining a role for him.  He’s been a starter his entire career yet when he came up to the big leagues he sat in the bullpen while the likes of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Dillon Gee got starts. 

Last September he was given the opportunity to start when there were no meaningful games to play and he demonstrated his talent with a totally dominating shutout performance against the Colorado Rockies in which he struck out 7 in 5 IP while only giving up 3 hits.

After that performance the skipper chose not to start him again for 17 days and he turned in another impressive 6 IP stint in which he gave up a single run with 6 Ks.   

Now if everyone remains healthy and no starting pitchers are traded away, Montero may once again find himself with no room at the inn.  Going into 2016 the rotation would appear to be deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz and Niese with Wheeler waiting in the wings as he continues to work his way back from TJS.  Consequently the Mets have a decision to make about a hopefully healthy Montero.  

• They could keep him stashed in AAA as insurance against injury should one of the starters require time on the DL. 
• They could try to convert him into a reliever as his strong control and high K numbers suggest he could flourish in that role.
• He could become a trade chip to help fill another hole on the roster.  

My preference would be to keep him as a starter in AAA both for insurance and to demonstrate his health which would thus increase his trade value.  With other relievers showing some promise – Erik Goeddel, Sean Gilmartin, Vic Black, Dario Alvarez (en fuego, according to Tom Brennan) and a large number of them at AA, it’s possible he won’t be needed in that role.  Furthermore, the irregular warm-up cycle and unpredictable pitching workload of a reliever is probably not the best environment for someone working his way back from a few years of health issues.

Where do you see Rafael Montero’s future?