Mack's Morning Report - 10-3-15 - David Wright, Drew Storen, Starlin Castro, Michael Conforto

Good morning.

 Comment From Sirras - What do you forsee the Mets doing in the offseason? I’m not convinced they win the Cespedes bidding war (which I think is a good thing honestly). They seem set in the middle infield with Tejada/Flores/Herrera. Maybe get a few bullpen arms and a decent utility type (Kelly Johnson again?)?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll make a better-than-token attempt to re-sign Cespedes and give him a legitimate offer, but someone will offer him more than the Mets will be willing to pay. And the Mets escape a terrible contract by being cheap, not because they actually understood the underlying reason it was a bad contract

Comment From Sirras - How surprised ar you with how David Wright has played since coming back from the DL?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not all that surprised. He actually got time to recover from injury instead of foolhardy showing how tough he is.

Comment From Izzy - What are the Mets chances of winning the NLDS against the Dodgers with and without home field advantage?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ have the numbers in front of me, but probably 44/40 or something like that.  Playoff formats favor the Dodgers – kershaw/greinke pitch a greater proportion of games in playoffs than they would in regular season.

Mack – Regarding Wright, I’m thrilled with what he has done since his return. And, in the long run, I applaud the Mets in not bringing him back earlier and trying to rush things.

I think he can consistently hit in the .300 range for the next 2-3 years while producing an average of 15 home runs per season. That’s a fine number three hitter in my book.

This is an  absolutely great story about the Nats, Jonathan Papelbon, Drew Storen and Mike Rizzo.

Here’s the start of it –

As July neared its close, and the Washington Nationals tried to cling to their spot atop the National League East, General Manager Mike Rizzo manned his iPhone at all hours. The Nationals were in Miami for an off day before three games against the Marlins. Rizzo’s top choices as trade targets were two of the best closers in the game, Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman and San Diego’s Craig Kimbrel.

Yet as Rizzo went back and forth with those two clubs, it quickly became obvious that the cost for either would be too much. “We’ve made it clear to teams that we’ve talked to,” Rizzo said, “that there are certain guys that we’re not going to talk about.”

The Nationals wouldn’t trade pitcher Lucas Giolito, one of the top pitching prospects in the game. They wouldn’t trade shortstop Trea Turner, who they thought might be the replacement for incumbent Ian Desmond someday. The Reds and Padres each wanted two of the Nationals’ top five prospects. Rizzo moved on.

Comment From Andrew - Should I be concerned about Matz’s back stiffness? It seems like he gets one freak injury after another. Does this mean anything for the playoffs?

Eno Sarris: He’s been injured a lot in minors too. Fortunately stiffness sounds like something that could clear up in 10-14 days.

Comment From Guest - What to make of Starlin Castro for next season?

Eno Sarris: Full time work somewhere else, above-average shortstop, below average fantasy shortstop.

Comment From Andrew - What do you expect from Conforto next year? So far he’s been fantastic.

Eno Sarris: I’ll take a little power regression, but half his homers have been oppo, which is a *really* good sign. I’ll take the way over on the rest of season projections for next year.

Mack -  There’s a bunch of good stuff here in Eno’s thoughts, but I couldn’t help throw in another shout out to Castro who would be my perfect shortstop in 2016 for many years to come.

Regarding Conforto, I don't expect the Mets to change how they use Conforto this playoff season, but I do expect to see him used more next season; however, the Mets will still be paying Michael Cuddyer $12.mil and they will need to reserve hom some major at-bats also. 2017 may be the first year he will hit full time from both sides of the plate.