With
all of the hoopla surrounding the Matt Harvey missed practice, the
C.C. Sabathia rehab stint and specter of the two-headed Cy Young
monsters pitching for the Dodgers, not much is being said about how
the lineups and bullpens stack up against one another. Yes, perhaps
Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard fall a half tick below
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but they are more than respectable
pitchers. Let's take a look at the rest of the rosters.
First
Base
Adrian
Gonzalez is a very well paid and bonafide star who delivered 28 HRs,
90 RBIs and a .275 average over the course of 156 games. On the east
coast Lucas Duda provided 27 Hrs, 77 RBIs and hit .244 in a dozen
fewer games. Power-wise, that's about a wash. Unfortunately Duda
will be facing the some of the best left handed pitching in the game
and he has at times struggled mightily against southpaws. Edge
Dodgers.
Second
Base
Howie
Kendrick was a solid addition for the Dodgers and enabled them to
trade Dee Gordon to free up second base. He performed well with 9
dingers, 54 RBIs and a .295 average. For the Mets in what's likely
his final season, Daniel Murphy provided more – 14 homers, 73 RBIs
and a .281 AVG. Edge Mets.
Shortstop
Jimmy
Rollins has long been a thorn in the Mets' side and I fully expect
him to continue to play his best with the season on the line. For
the year, however, it appears age has caught up to him. He still hit
it out of the yard 13 times and drove in 44 runners but the .224 AVG
is not very good. The Mets have used the two-headed shortstop combo
of Wilmer Flores who hit for more power and Ruben Tejada who
delivered a significantly higher batting average. Edge Mets.
Third
Base
While
ex-Met Justin Turner's story has been well chronicled with 16 bombs,
60 RBIs and a.. .295 average in less than 400 ABs, you still have to
think the perennial All-Star David Wright would have outperformed
these numbers had he been healthy all year. Based upon track record,
edge Mets.
Catcher
Yasmany
Grandal showed some pop this year with 16 HRs but he hit a paltry
.234. Travis d'Arnaud in nearly 120 fewer at bats delivered
comparable run production at a higher average. Edge Mets.
Left
Field
Carl
Crawford is listed on the depth chart as the starting left fielder
but his numbers suggest his best days are long behind him. Michael
Conforto is the presumptive left fielder, though with lefties
starting he may take a back seat to Michael Cuddyer. In either case,
both Mets players clearly outperformed the former Red Sox speedster.
Edge Mets.
Centerfield
Joc
Pederson started out the year as if he was the second coming of Mike
Trout. He was hitting for power, making spectacular fielding plays
and showed what looked like great baserunning ability. Then the
bottom fell out of his season. He finished with 26 HRs which is
highly respectable but they netted just 54 RBIs and his average was
an ugly .210. The Mets counter with Yoenis Cespedes. That's
probably the clearest margin of any of the position battles in the
Mets' favor.
Right
Field
With
Yasiel Puig still having hamstring issues, Andre Ethier is likely
getting the call in RF. His .294 average was a nice bounce back year
for him, but 14 HRs and 54 RBIs was not all that spectacular.
Compare that to what Curtis Granderson did out of the leadoff
position and it's a clear edge for the Mets.
Starting
Pitchers
Kershaw
and Greinke, the latter day Spahn and Sain (but perhaps even better)
are making a lot of people very nervous. Mets fans worry about how
neutralized their offense will be, particularly with some of the
hitters either not in the lineup against lefties (such as Conforto)
and others performing substantially worse against southpaws. After
these two pitchers the Dodgers are a little thinner, with Brett
Anderson pitching to a 10-9 record, a 3.69 ERA and proving to be
fairly hittable. The Mets' top three of Harvey, deGrom and
Syndergaard may average out to be better pitchers, but the edge to
Greinke and Kershaw makes me give the edge to the Dodgers.
Relief
Pitchers
Kenley
Jansen and Jeurys Familia are pitchers neither team wants to see
entering the game. They are shutdown closers and on roughly equal
footing. The rest of the Dodgers' pen has been somewhat better than
what the Mets have done lately, with meltdowns by Tyler Clippard and
Addison Reed leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many Mets fans.
Edge Dodgers.
Overall,
it seems like a pretty well matched set of players and it could go
either way. The Mets, who were ridiculed for their offense earlier
in the season actually look to hold an edge in this regard, whereas
their strength, pitching, seems to fall a little short of what the
boys in blue have to offer. We'll know soon enough.
It's just me, but I think this series will go down to what each pen does.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that overview, Reese, I agree, this could go either way. I'd give them second base just on the basis of Murphy's D'oh! factor.
ReplyDeleteFor the Mets to win, the starters are going to have to be lights out for 6 innings, and then hand it over to the pen. Unless the team bats get hot, this season's pattern is they hit very little against a good starter, but can rally against the pen.
If we somehow get an early rally against Kershaw on Friday that may change things and relax the bats, but I wouldn't bet on it.
In addition to the pitching, Michael Cuddyer could be a key to how this series goes.... to me he is the glaring hole in the lineup and somehow the baseball gods will always put someone like that up at the plate with the bases loaded in the sixth...
Alex