Mack’s Sunday Draft Report – 6-26-16

Good morning.

Some signings and non-signings –

          The Mets signed 1st round pick, P Justin Dunn, and 3rd round pick, 3B Blake Tiberi. Both have reported to Brooklyn. 

          Well, you can forget the effect on an PED testing when it came to St. Louis Cardinals first round pick, SS Deven Perez. He did fall from a projected top 5 pick to the Cards 23^rd pick which lowered his signing bonus to a mere $2,222,500. How do you say ‘poor baby’ in Spanish

UK baseball signee, OF Jaren Shelby, decided to turn down his commitment to Kentucky and announced that he would instead attend the JUCO State College of Florida next season. Not surprisingly, he was undrafted in the 2016 draft. Shelby was a Florida all-State player who hit .378 with 12 home runs Tates Creek (FL) HS.

LHP Kyle Miller (44^th player drafted overall) has signed with the Atlanta Braves ($1.4M), per Jim Callis. He will spend the summer with the Braves summer league

The Philadelphia Phillies signed the overall first pick in the draft, Mickey Moniak, which included a $6.1mil bonus, far below the $9.015mil allotted to that slot. Look for the unused money to be used to sign their second round pick, pitcher Kevin Gowdy.

As for the continued look at the results of the Mets 2016 draft –

Frankly, I only see four possible future major leaguers in the Mets draft, two of which (Matt Cleveland and Carlos Cortez) will probably not sigh and attend college.

The other two (Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay) are featured here –

Having only two draftees make it someday to your 25-man squad is not a bad average folks. Times That by 10 years and you have 20 major leaguers on your staff. Now, all you have to do is fill the staff in with five free agents or international signees.

I found the Mets urgency to draft college players here puzzling, especially since all the players they have signed so far have been assigned to rookie teams. Aren’t these players already in their 20s?

One more thing… there is a lot of helium in this Mets drafts. Speed, not control, seems to have been the criteria to be drafted as a Mets pitcher here and I guess the front office is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle… or, at least, another Jacob deGrom.

Lastly the Mets signed the 280^th pick in the draft, RHP Colin Holderman. The interesting part is the slot money was $163,700 for Holderman, but the Mets will pay him a bonus of $400.000.

Draft Pick –

1.     1^st round – 19^th pick overall – RHP Justin Dunn

11^th on Mack’s Top RHPs in draft

23^rd in Mack’s top 134 plyers to be chosen in draft

                   Currently Unsigned

BA: #25 - In 2015, Chris Shaw became the fifth first-rounder drafted out of Boston College. This year, Dunn could be the sixth. The athletic righthander began the season pitching out of the bullpen, but his lightning quick arm and promising offspeed pitches forced him into the Eagles' rotation. Dunn is slight in stature, with some scouts questioning his listed 6-foot-2, 184-pound frame. While he is short physically, his stuff isn’t. He pitches consistently at 92-95 and touching as high as 97 at times with his fastball. His best secondary pitch is his slider, thrown with tight spin, vertical shape and mid-80s velocity. He throws a curveball that has similar shape to his slider, but breaks more loosely and grades out as a below-average pitch, though its presence can disrupt hitters' timing. Dunn has shown feel for a changeup at times, showing the ability to locate the pitch at hitters' knees. His performance as a starter has encouraged teams that he can start long term, as he has held velocity well deep into his outings.

          

Keith Law –

Justin Dunn was one of the brightest spots in college baseball this spring, a highly athletic right-hander who hit 99 mph in the bullpen before moving to Boston College's rotation, where he was 93-96 mph with a solid-average slider that will probably end up as some sort of ungodly wipeout pitch now that he's joining the Mets.

        

  6-12 – BC eliminated from College World Series

          From Scout.com after playoff –

The Mets led off with one of my favorite players, Justin Dunn, who slid to 19. I think he could help a team out of the bullpen this year, then be stretched out as a starter for the future. If he had been starting all year, I think there is a very good chance he would have been a top-10 pick.

Mack – Look for Mets to sign him by the end of June, send him to St, Lucie to learn all about the back end of the bullpen and get ready to see this guy in Queens in September

My other prediction to someday become a major leaguer is first round pick,     P Anthony Kay (    7th on Mack’s Top LHP in 2016 draft and 42nd on Mack’s top 134 players in 2016 draft).

          MLB #43 –

School: Connecticut Year: Junior Position: LHP Age: 21 DOB: 3/21/1995 Bats: L Throws: L Height: 5' 11" Weight: 186 lb.

Previously Drafted: 2013, 29th (866) - NYM

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

The University of Connecticut has produced some excellent pro talent, headlined by George Springer, Nick Ahmed and Matt Barnes. Kay, the Huskies' Friday night starter, could be the next in line.

Kay fits the mold of the advanced pitchability college lefty, one with a track record of success, not only at UConn, but also in the Cape Cod League in 2014 and with Team USA in 2015. Kay succeeds by filling the strike zone and keeping hitters guessing, albeit with the lack of a true out pitch. He'll top out at 94-95 mph with his fastball, though he pitches more effectively at around 91 mph. He has a consistently reliable changeup, though he telegraphs it at times by lowering his arm slot. His breaking ball is fringy.

College performers like Kay tend to do well on Draft day. He could be seen as a poor man's Mark Buehrle type, one who could perhaps add a cutter at the next level to give him a four-pitch mix, helping him to be a quick to the big leagues back-end starter.

Baseball America: #35 –

A 29th round pick of the Mets out of high school, Kay was one of three promising Long Island prep arms, with Stephen Woods and Matt Vogel also showing promise. All three chose to go to college, and Kay has emerged as the best of the group. The ace of UConn's staff, Kay throws three pitches for strikes. His fastball works in the low 90s and touches 95 early in his starts. Scouts see his changeup is an above-average or plus pitch; it shows both fade and tumble and generates swings and misses from righthanded hitters regularly. Kay has a tendency to throw his changeup from a slightly lower arm slot, giving scouts concerns that elite hitters will be able to see the pitch coming. He throws a breaking ball with slurvy shape. Kay usually throws the pitch against righthanded hitters, and has not thrown it with conviction this spring. Kay is on the shorter side, standing at 6-foot, but he has a wide, sturdy build.

Keith Law - #28:

Kay has perhaps the best changeup in the entire draft, an 82-86 mph dying rock that ghosts away from right-handed hitters. It's got easy plus projection in a vacuum, though Kay shows some arm slot variation on the changeup that might suppress the pitch's effectiveness at the upper levels of pro ball.

Kay's fastball has been into the mid-90s for starts at a time, topping out at 95, and has been around 90-95 all year, even in frigid temperatures. There's more plane on the heater than one might expect from a 6-foot pitcher, a product of Kay's high three-quarter arm slot.

The curveball is blunt and loopy, a below-average offering that flashes fringe average and projects as a 45 or 50 at maturity.

While a low-to-mid 90s fastball and plus changeup are a terrific foundation for any pitching prospect, Kay will have to progress in more areas than are typical for a college arm. The curveball will have to progress; otherwise, Kay will have to add a fourth pitch so that he has enough viable weapons to negotiate through a pro lineup several times. Some scouts think a cutter would suit him.

Other concerns include Kay's size, which, when he leaves pitches up, causes his fastball to flatten out and might cause him to be homer prone. And nobody is totally sure that his changeup will play at plus because of the arm slot variation that could tip big league hitters. But Kay has performed this year while many of his peers have not and he has been trending in the right direction all spring. He could be

selected in the late-first round, where other college changeup artists have found homes in recent years.

Mack – A potential back end starter with the potential of a Logan Verrett or Sean Gilmartin. My disappointment was that I felt there were better names still on the board (RHP Dakota Hudson, LHP Joey Wentz) when the Mets called out for Kay.

I like him… I’m just not in love with the pick and I feel he could have still been around when we picked in the second round.