MINORS - SMITH 2016 VS. CONFORTO 2015 by Tom Brennan
As a follow up to yesterday's Dominic Smith article by me, I thought it would be interesting to compare Smith of 2016 to Michael Conforto of 2015 in the minors to see how the two stack up side by side.
CONFORTO 2015:
Age 22, .297/.372/.482 in 91 games, 54 RBIs, 12 HRs. At bats split roughly 50/50 between High A and AA.
SMITH 2016:
AGE 20/21, .294/.353/.466 in 90 games, 12 HRs, 67 RBIs. All at bats in AA.
What an eye opener...virtually identical, except Smith is doing it younger, against stronger competition (all AA), and Smith is knocking in more runs with the support of (in my opinion) a weaker offensive squad than Conforto had in the minors last year. Michael, after all, had Rosario, Nimmo, and Smith hitting alongside him at times last year.
It has to make one wonder if Smith, were there openings in Queens, is just as ready as Conforto was last year.
My point? Don't count Smith out as being on this Mets team in September if there is a pennant race. And don't count him out as the Mets' 2016 first baseman next year - probably premature to consider that, but let's see what Smith does the rest of this year.
Dom has definitely progressed, and after a slow start this year, has not only hit very well, but has turned on the power that everyone was so concerned about. Reports are that he plays a stellar first base, so as soon as that bar is ready, he should be good to go. I don't think we'll see him in September, since he's not on the 40-man yet, but I do expect him to get a long look in spring training. If Duda is healthy, I would expect Smith to start the season in Vegas, but the clock will very definitely be ticking at that point, and any injury to Lucas should get Dom up to Queens. If Dud has a full and healthy season, then we probably won't see him until September of next season, but after that he's likely here to stay. I have a good feeling about Dom, and I think he's going to be a productive ML hitter and a starting 1B on a winning teamz
ReplyDeleteAdam, even under your conservative timing, Smith is only a year away. He is coming fast now. I am agreeing more and more that he will be a very solid starting 1B for the Mets, who hopefully will be that winning team.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see him surge on RBIs and get to 100.
Cecchini (solo) and Nimmo (3 run shot) also impressed last night in a close contest won by the Vegans in Omaha.
It's looking more and more likely IMO that Cecchini will not be part of the Mets future. By the time Cabbie' contract is up, Rosario should be ready to be our SS.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Bill. Cecchini is on 56 errors and counting for this year and last. Unless they felt that would straighten out at 2nd and he'd be better than Dilson, he likely will go
ReplyDeleteI agree, Tom, he's coming fast in either case. I fully expect Smith at 1B and Rosario at SS opening day 2018. Herrera should be there too, though I think he'll have won the starter's spot before the end of the '17 season. Now, 3B, that's an issue, huh? I can imagine Flores there, if he's able to get enough AB's vs RHP over the next year to get comfortable and his numbers up (which I think he will, "either here or someplace else" as he said the other day.
ReplyDeleteAdam, as of now, I would go with Wilmer at 3B. He won't be prime David Wright, but he ought to be at least average.
ReplyDeleteSmith, Herrera, Rosario and Flores would make quite a decent starting infield. Unless they all decide to get spinal stenosis or visit Jennry Mejia's pharmacist.
Dilson's star is fading, and he's not showing ML readiness. On a team in Hitters' Paradise, where the TEAM BA is .292, he;s been stuck in the low .270s and in most box scores he's the only starter under .300. People like Kelly, Campbell and others are 50 points or more higher.
ReplyDeleteHe's still young, and can turn things around, but projecting him as our starting 2Bman is WAY premature.Based on current performances, I'd rather have Wilmer (or even Jose) replacing Walker on OD '17, barring trades.
I agree, Bill. Curious what is causing Herrera's subpar hitting. Good pop, but way under last year's output average-wise.
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