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12/1/16

Mack Ade – An Analysis of Mets Drafts: 2000-2015

Good morning.

Tom Brennan and I were discussing earlier this week the difference of quality between the Yankees and Mets farm system. I mentioned that it was my opinion that (currently) the Yanks have a far superior prospect system, built by a combination of trades, International draft picks, and regular draft picks. I made a general statement that I could blow holes through the results of the past 15 Mets draft picks. I also said I may break them out.

So -

2000:             51 players drafted… 25 players unsigned… no players made Queens

2001:             52 players drafted… 22 unsigned… 2 made Queens (Aaron Heilman, David Wright)

2002:             48 players drafted… 24 unsigned… 1 made Queens (Scott Kazmir)

2003:             48 players drafted… 21 unsigned… 3 made Queens (Lastings Milledge, Brian Bannister, Carlos Muniz)

2004:             50 players drafted… 21 unsigned… 3 made Queens (Phillip Humber, Nick Evans, Mike Carp)

2005:             48 players drafted… 16 unsigned… 4 made Queens (Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole)

2006:             49 players drafted… 14 unsigned… 5 made Queens (Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith, Dan Murphy, Tobi Stoner, Josh Stinson)

2007:             42 players drafted…  7 unsigned… 6 made Queens (Eddie Kunz, Zach Lutz, Lucas Duda, Robert Carson, Dillon Gee, Juan Centeno)

2008:             52 players drafted… 10 unsigned… 6 made Queens (Ike Davis, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Josh Satin, Collin McHugh, Chris Schwinden)

2009:             49 players drafted… 14 unsigned… 2 made Queens (Steven Matz, Darell Cecilliani)

2010:             49 players drafted… 16 unsigned… 6 made Queens (Matt Harvey, Matt Den Dekker, Jacob deGrom, Akeel Morris, Erik Goeddel, Josh Edgin)

2011:             51 players drafted… 14 unsigned… 6 made Queens (Brandon Nimmo, Logan Verrett, Jack Leathersich, Danny Muno, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo)

2012:             42 players drafted… 21 unsigned… 3 made Queens so far (Gavin Cecchini, Kevin Plawecki, Matt Reynolds)

2013:             41 players drafted… 14 unsigned… 0 made Queens so far

2014:             39 players drafted… 11 undrafted… 1 made Queens so far (Michael Conforto)

2015:             39 players drafted… 18 undrafted… 0 made Queens so far

2016:             41 players drafted… 14 unsigned… 0 made Queens so far


So. From 2000-2016, 791 baseball players were drafted, 292 were not signed, and only 47 made it to Queens. Of the 47, only 10 ‘made a difference’ so far.

Let’s do that again…


            791 players drafted… 10 made a difference
on

15 comments:

  1. DallasDecember 1, 2016 at 8:19 AM

    How do you define making a difference? Niese pitched decent and was part of the World Series team. Kazmir made a big difference, just not for us. Same with Joe Smith and Colline McHugh.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Tom BrennanDecember 1, 2016 at 9:00 AM

    Eleven if you count Danny Muno :)

    I agree with Dallas, a few more than 10 made a MLB difference, but the only offensive guy who was a game changer with the Mets in that period was David Wright (we missed Daniel Murphy by a year - whoops). Duda and Murphy, not really, and they were lucky with both as they were drafted several rounds below the first round.

    THAT is poor offensive player drafting. Hopefully, Conforto and Smith will help change that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Reese KaplanDecember 1, 2016 at 9:50 AM

    What that means is that with all of the criticism he's received Sandy Alderson's drafts were at least as good as his predecessors with 3 already listed as significant, Seth Lugo an outside possibility and the more recent drafts not yet bearing fruit (Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, Thomas Szapucki).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 9:54 AM

    Dallas -

    Everybody defines 'making a difference' differently.

    I define it AS A MET, not someone that made a difference on another team.

    We could debate Niese, but I will give you that one.

    Still, dismal draft results, no?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 9:55 AM

    Thomas -

    Here's the thing about Conforto...

    I agree on Conforto, but the book is still out on Smith

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 9:57 AM

    Reese -

    I think Alderson's true talent has been in signing free agents, especially the ones needed to fill in a playoff contending roster.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 10:10 AM

    Dallas - Thomas - Reese

    Tell you what... I'll give you all 6 that you added to the list... even Muno.

    791 players drafted... 16 players that made a difference.

    I do not thing these numbers are good. Do you?

    ReplyDelete
  8. DallasDecember 1, 2016 at 10:13 AM

    I think the best way you evaluate the draft is looking at any player that made solid contributions at the MLB level. Fulmer didn't play for the Mets but he was a great draft pick that isnt in your list anywhere. I do definitely agree the Draft has been pretty barren of offensive players in general. If your GM trades a Kazmir for a Zambrano instead of a Fulmer for a Cespedes that a whole different level of evaluation :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. DallasDecember 1, 2016 at 10:17 AM

    Mack, no they don't. Would be interesting to do a comparison to another team. The Nats look like they did well with Harper/Strasburg but they also had them as the #1 over all picks so it was harder to mess it up. The Mets played to mediocrity and had less certain picks for most the years. I guess the best teams find the gems in the later rounds anyways.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Tom BrennanDecember 1, 2016 at 10:30 AM

    Dallas I have an article tomorrow, not to do analyses of other teams, per se, but which will reveal that 3 teams who have guys currently in MLB's Top 10 prospects are doing a lot right, including the Nats, whether via draft or international signing.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 11:10 AM

    Tom -

    I hope Lucas is not on that list... it still pisses me (and his father, BTW) off that the Mets didn't draft him.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Eddie from CoronaDecember 1, 2016 at 12:58 PM

    I love talking about this stuff.... many people only care about the big club but I think of the whole organization and the pipeline is a huge deal for me...
    So these numbers look atrocious..
    I believe they span 3 GM's (Phillips, Omar, and Sandy - yes there was Duquette for a year but I will ignore that)...
    However The Wilpon’s and their Cheap ways (lack of foresights) are about 75% responsible for this as well...) DO you think Phillips or Omar cared about how much money a player made? (Sandy might)
    All I ever read when drafted (heck even spent on Free agents) was how the Mets were the lowest team to spend on the Draft... How we would only draft players who went slot...
    The best players available always went over slot in the era of no penalties for going over slot... We were a big market team spending the lowers amount... WTF...
    This ownership was the same guys who DIDN'T WANT PIAZZA... it was Doubleday...
    They affect the success of our team at all levels...
    I am not the guy who says spend spend spend... I don’t every say Pay everyone... But its NY... when you go shopping shop at Tiffany's not JC Pennys...
    So there was no excuse not to spend in the draft or International draft when there was no penalty… This was lower risk than free agency…
    Secondly I would love to see what a couple of organizations draft looked like during the span… (IE the Red Sox, Cardinals, Texas, San Fran… these team always seem to be able to sustain Success. The Yankees spend money but they sucked at drafting)…

    ReplyDelete
  13. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 1:31 PM

    Tom -

    I was just kidding.

    I knew Giolito would be up there.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Mack AdeDecember 1, 2016 at 1:32 PM

    Eddie -

    Omar and his boyz was obsessed with the Latin kids.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Tom BrennanDecember 1, 2016 at 2:09 PM

    Eddie, you should do an article (or 4 - you mention 4 teams)on this topic:

    I would love to see what a couple of organizations draft looked like during the span… (IE the Red Sox, Cardinals, Texas, San Fran… these team always seem to be able to sustain Success. The Yankees spend money but they sucked at drafting)…

    ReplyDelete