Tom Brennan - Mets' Top 30: Differences of Opinion
The Mets' website listed its top 30 prospects. Some don't make sense to me order-wise. Maybe I'm crazy. Here goes (Mets site ranking for player is shown in bold):
Anthony Kay at # 9 - he just had Tommy John Surgery, so I'd be more conservative with that slot. I understand he was our 2nd pick in the first round. Still, full recovery from TJS is not a given.
Milton Ramos at # 12, while fellow SS Luis Guillorme is at # 20: Ramos did not hit much at all in Columbia in 2016, while Guillorme won the League's MVP there the year before, and hit much better in 2016 than Ramos did, while playing a league higher. Both lack power, so I am very puzzled there.
Peter Alonzo at # 13 - he was powerfully terrific for the Cyclones as a power hitting 1B until he got hurt...yeah, he's slow, but his shots clear the fences quick...Ramos ahead of him? Nah.
Rob Gsellman at # 14 - so Anthony Kay just had TJS, while Gsellman pitched masterfully for several weeks with the Mets in 2016 - but Gsellman is LOWER than Kay? Head scratcher. He's in my Top 10. Kay is not. Yet.
TJ Rivera at # 30, despite leading AAA in batting and hitting .333 in September with the Mets. TJ is the Rodney Dangerfield of this organization, NO respect, I tell ya. I'd at least flip spots with Urena here.
Jhoan Urena at #17, while Tomas Nido is at # 19. Urena has had back-to-back LOUSY years, while Catcher Nido excelled behind the dish while - oh, yeah - LEADING THE FSL IN HITTING, WITH DECENT POP. Now that's a head-scratcher.
I'm surprised Urena still sits in the Top 30, and so far above, say, fine hitting catcher Pat Mazelka, slotted at # 28. I'd have put fine hitting OF Kevin Kacsmarski somewhere in my Top 30 and bumped Urena down to about # 35. Jeff McNeil would have also been in my Top 30 (if he is expected to be 100% recovered and healthy in 2017. He had a great 2015 before missing virtually all of 2016 with a sports hernia.
David Thompson at # 24? Dudes and Dudettes, this guy is an RBI machine, best in the Mets minors, so it seems awfully negative to rank him this low.
Lastly, I know PJ Conlon (# 26) is not a flame thrower, but he had an A+++ season pitching in 2016. I'd have snuck him in around 20 or slightly higher.
Am I nuts, folks, or am I making sense?
Or am I making sense, but still nuts regardless?
Please weigh in - you can reach me in the psych ward, where I am ranked # 1.
I always thought Uhrena would emerge as a top level Guy---That opinion provided by the "benefit" of Never Seeing Him Play---and the 2 minute vid snips and stats as my guide.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Eraff...he did well in 2014 in the NY Penn League, but if his name was not Urena, by the way he's played since, he'd be Ur-gone-a. Maybe he startles us with a big 2017, but I am not holding my breath. He did knock in 11 runs in his last 10 games of 2016, so that shows a pulse, perhaps. Just .223 the past 2 years in St lucie.
ReplyDeleteConspiracy thought:
ReplyDeletePerhaps the Mets organization is trying to create propaganda to increase the value of lesser prospects they would rather use as trade bait while diminishing the trade interest in other prospects the Met front office would rather keep?
Is Seth Lugo below 30 or did he lose prospect classification?
ReplyDeleteInteresting, Bob, interesting. Richard, I think Seth Lugo did move beyond prospect classification.
ReplyDeleteTom your probably Nuts... we all are since we cannot get enough of this stuff...
ReplyDeleteYour spot on with some of the ranking based on performances, ceiling and Projections...
Kay ... we don't know enough about him but TJS should not be something that we should worry about otherwise why the argument of drafting Giolito seasons back...
Agree with the Ramos vs Guillorme
100 PCT on Alonzo.. Heck I would rank him higher than Nimmo...
Thompson, Nido Mazelka all should be Higher in my book
Gsellman Man he is a weird case for me... I think he did well when he came up but when I saw him pitch It screamed to me as a guy we should sell high...
Niese about 4 years ago was thought of as high as Gio Gonzalez when he was traded, Pelrey after a 15- 5 Season I yelled to anyone who would listen we should trade him (not that I rate myself a scout because I don't consider myself a great talent evaluator) ... I am not saying he sucks I just don't see star... and If I can flip him for someone who could be then Do so...
I said to friends that the No.1 reason i wanted to make the playoff was to see Gsellman and Lugo pitch in those games... But the main reason was to see if they could raise their stock sky high... then we could trade them for the pieces we need... (a reese Mcguire, catching prospect, or a 3b prospect, someone who is a 10 year player for us... )
I think it is just a product of knowing "our" system a bit better then the national publication(s). However, different lists may weigh variables differently (such as projection versus production).
ReplyDeleteHowever, I agree with your point(s), Tom.
Mike
Gsellman looked like a a Guy with 3 very compettitive Pitches, 95 mph with good movement and Tough Geometry for Hitters... we don't ever know what they are working on in MILB, but this guy showed plenty of Stuff and Presence at 22/23 Y/O. What will he look like after vthe hitters have seen him...??? My take is that he has a minimum 100 start career if he commands the stuff he has.
ReplyDeleteeraff and Eddie, I like Gsellman a lot and would like to keep him, especially with the Fragile 5 in our rotation. Lugo ssmes like a Dillon Gee type to me, not so sure I'd want to over-rely on him.
ReplyDeleteGuys do come back from TJS - some are superb (the late Jose Fernandez, for one) while some are never quite the same. I don't know enough on Kay to predict.
OK...let's NOT dismiss "A Dylan Gee Type". I'll take a #5 Starter who can pitch competively. Sure, we all want more!
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree.
DeleteYou mean Dillon Gee of the 4.68 ERA that the KC Royals allowed to slip out of their grasp and become a free agent with thus far no bidders? That Dillon Gee? I hope but second the notion that Seth Lugo is no better than that.
ReplyDeleteLugo is a good 6th starter. I'd not want to rely on him too long as my #5.
DeleteDylan Gee has 125 MLB starts... I'm not sure whether the current "version" is still an MLB Starter--- he was a legitimate starter for 3-4 years.
ReplyDeleteI don't like when Old Men in Chairs at Typewriters just totally blow out guys who have clawed their way to a career--- remind Me when/if I show such a lack of respect.
Gee was an overachiever, no doubt. When he had his last year in Buffalo with a troubling 4.96 ERA, I expected little, but we got a whole lot more than a little. He (and we) should be very proud of his accomplishments. Hopefully he has some gas in the tank still.
DeleteIf Nido can replicate that production this season in AA, he'll shoot up lists and will probably be a top 100 guy heading into '18. People seem to have issues with Alonzo's swing, but so far, so good. Gsellman TJ and PJ all got robbed.
ReplyDeleteNido and Phil Evans: what can they do for an encore after winning batting titles? Evans wants to prove he can out-TJ TJ Rivera.
Delete