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1/19/17

Tom Brennan - BRUCE VS. CONFORTO



Tom Brennan - BRUCE VS. CONFORTO


Jay Bruce is an established slugger – and we Metsies are gunning for a pennant and World Series in 2017 – so should we REALLY be moving Bruce to save his $13 million in money due?   Would his bat serve us better if it stays in Queens?


Would it weaken our team to have Michael Conforto pick up a ton of his at bats, if/when Bruce is traded?


I fall on the side of NO, it would not weaken the team. 


Here’s why:


Bruce hit about .240 in his first 2 years in the bigs, and overall, over a 162 game schedule, he has in his career averaged 593 at bats, 31 doubles, 31 homers, 94 RBIs, 158 Ks, and a line of .248/.318/.467.


Conforto has only 478 career at bats so far – in those, he has a very similar stat line (.238/.319/.448) despite a horrendous soph slump and a larger home park than Bruce's past Cincy home park to hit in.


Projected over 593 at bats, to match Bruce’s 162 game average, Conforto’s numbers work out to 43 doubles, 26 homers, 84 RBIs, and yes, the same 158 Ks. 


Bruce started his MLB career slightly younger than Conforto, but not significantly so, therefore I ignore age differential as an impactful factor.


Bruce hit just .223 as a soph, but in his 3rd year, Bruce hit a career best .283 with a .353 OBP and a .493 slug %.  Maybe Conforto can replicate that Bruce pattern in his third year - we'd all gladly take that.


If one assumes that the .422/.483/.722 that Conforto hit in Vegas in a bit over 140 plate appearances after his horrific 2016 slump and demotion is a sign that the dude just had a bad stretch in the bigs that was abnormal to his true level of talent, and which he will overcome, and that Juan Lagares can take at bats vs. lefties instead of the lefty-challenged Conforto, I feel good about moving Bruce.


What do you think, folks?





on

10 comments:

  1. Reese KaplanJanuary 19, 2017 at 10:26 AM

    It is for the very reasons you outline that opposing clubs would much rather have Conforto than Bruce. Then there are also 13 million other reasons as well.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Eddie from CoronaJanuary 19, 2017 at 10:26 AM

    I know I have been saying Bruce needs to go however he is still a 30 HR hitter and I believe still would produce a 30HR,90 RBI, 245-260 batting avg with Low OBP abtting 6th or 7th...

    But what if we keep him and trade Duda... I assume we would not have to swallow any salary and maybe get a similar package.. then make Conforto or Bruce the 1B... I mean they may not be gold glove but Duda isn't either...
    What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mack AdeJanuary 19, 2017 at 10:43 AM

    Eddie -

    It's far too late in the off-season to create a first baseman. You would have needed to do that in the winter leagues.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Reese KaplanJanuary 19, 2017 at 10:56 AM

    As far back as October I floated a Conforto/Flores platoon for 1st to clear up the logjam and opening up Duda as a trade possibility.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Eddie from CoronaJanuary 19, 2017 at 12:03 PM

    I kind of believe we need to adjust and not just say its too late... we have what about a month before spring training... If we send a 1B instructor now and all of spring training to see if a Conforto or Bruce could hack it then why not try? The off season hasn't workout completely for our favor so we need to be malleable... Obviously we would need to gauge interest in Duda as well...

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2017 at 1:18 PM

    It is worth noting.....

    The Mets did ask Conforto to participate in a Winter League of some kind this off-season to get some work in both OF (LF,CF,and RF) as well as 1B.

    Unfortunately, Conforto declined to participate for fear of potential injury ruining his chances at a future payday.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Tom BrennanJanuary 19, 2017 at 2:26 PM

    Hi gents, my wife got me down to the Lincoln Memorial for the inauguration eve celebration. She is more into it than me...BELIEVE ME...Bruce also hit only about. 230 over the past 3 years, so it is not unreasonable to think Bruce could hit. 225, and Conforto perhaps 40 or 50 points higher. My conclusion: trade Bruce, play Mike.

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  8. ZozoJanuary 19, 2017 at 3:26 PM

    I would keep Conforto and Nimmo in Vegas until needed. Pick up a another out field bat that can bat righty and play all 3 OF positions.

    But in my world I would trade Granderson asap. I would see if the Skanks bite on a Gardner for Granderson plus a minor leaguer trade.

    Let Conforto gain some more control of the strike zone and keep his Years of control down

    ReplyDelete
  9. eraffJanuary 19, 2017 at 5:25 PM

    I'm not a Duda Fan....for One Year, I'd prefer Bruce at 1b...... maybe Duda is more marketable

    On Conforto--- He can progress ONLY at the big league level. There's nothing left top do at AAA. I'm always a little uncertain about Disruption of a Player's development versus Distruction of Development. I believe Conforto can be a Big Player---I would err on the side of serving that idea...do what you need to do to keep him playing at MLB level.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Tom BrennanJanuary 19, 2017 at 9:39 PM

    Zozo and eraff both present solid differing arguments...my gut, I go with eraff (Conforto in bigs). Yanks taking Grandy for value could be grand - for both squads.

    ReplyDelete