Ya know, if you ask 100 Mets fans how pitcher Addison Reed became a Met, at least 90 of them would
tell you via free agency.
It simply isn’t true.
On August 30, 2015, the Mets traded Matt Koch and Miller Diaz to
the Arizona Diamondbacks for the then 26-year old Reed. How did that work out?
Koch finally made it to the majors in 2016 where he
went 1-1, 2.00, 0.72, 7-G, 2-starts, 18-IP, 10-K. Diaz still is pitching at the
AA level, though he did have some decent success at that level last season (17-relief
appearances, 2.82).
But all this pales at the success that Reed has
brought to the Mets. He pitched in 17 games for the Mets in 2015 and posted a
1.17-ERA. He followed this last season with 80 appearances and a stat line of
1.97, 0.94.
Rylan Edwards, of Rotographs, wrote an article in
October 216 about the top relievers in baseball and had Reed on the top portion
of the list –
Addison
Reed seems to have figured something out, posting career bests in both K/9 and
BB/9. He induced hitters to chase more often than at any point in his career
and Reed’s first-pitch strike rate ranked third among qualified relievers. With
improvements like those, I can overlook some of the good fortune he experienced
with respect to strand rate and HR/FB%.
Former Mack’s
Mets writer, Jack Flynn, who has re-joined the
site this week, had this spin –
Forget
about Matt Harvey and how his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome will go.
Forget about Zack Wheeler and the very real possibility that Tommy John surgery
has robbed him of the chance to ever be a productive major league pitcher.
The
most compelling comeback story in Flushing for 2017 is that of Addision Reed –
and if he can sustain the magic that has transformed him from a failed closer
into an elite set-up man.
It’s
easy to forget that Reed came to the Mets as an afterthought – a late August
2015 transaction that went relatively unnoticed given the expectations that New
York had for him. The Mets didn’t expect Reed to replicate his performance
during his first three full years in the big leagues, when he saved over 100
games. They simply hoped he would be one of the bridges from their emerging
young starters to their fully emerged closer Jeurys Familia.
Reed
did just that over the last month of the 2015 season and through the Mets’
unexpected run to a National League pennant. Despite being lit up in the final
game of the World Series, Reed emerged as a dominant set-up man in 2016, putting
up the best single-season ERA and WHIP of his career.
Was
it the move to a less pressure-filled role that allowed Reed to blossom? Was it
the gradual transformation from a fly ball pitcher to a ground ball pitcher
that began while Reed was in Arizona? Or is it simply a matter of a young man
fully harnessing his talent as he matured into life as a professional baseball
player?
The
Mets may not even know the answer – and they very likely do not care. Reed will
likely be given a chance to close if and when Familia misses time to begin the
2017 season as a result of an off-season domestic violence dispute. Reed has a
closer’s pedigree, which sets him apart from the rest of the Mets’ bullpen
right now.
Another
factor to consider is Reed’s impending free agent status (the Mets control him
only through 2017). Closers get paid more than set-up men – and Reed must know
that the more time he spends in the eighth inning means the less money he will
be spending over the next three to five years. Will Reed be able to ignore that
and put in another dominant campaign for the Orange and Blue? Or will the
desire to maximize every dollar in free agency become a distraction that
affects his performance?
Reed’s
ability to hold down the closer role in Familia’s absence – and then slip
seamlessly back into the set-up role he was so successful in last year – will
go a long way toward determining of the Mets can challenge Washington in the NL
East this year. It will also go a long way toward determining him how the Mets
– and the rest of the major leagues – will view him in 2018 and beyond.
And
Reed is far from being over the hill. He will pitch 2017 as a 28-year old and
we all know that relievers can last in this game far longer than starters. He
is scheduled for free agency in 2018 and I can’t imagine the Mets finding a
better pitcher to handle the 8th inning than Reed would in 2018 and
2019.
Opinion: Why is it that teams in general and the Mets
in particular just don’t commit long term money to good relievers? You need at
least seven of these guys on your 25-man squad and three of them better be shut
down fireballers.
I never understood why a team has no problem keeping a
kid through his arbitration years, but won’t invest money past that if he
developed into a premium player at the position he is playing. It has to be
money, right?
Two good things have happened this past week to strengthen the pen.
The re-signing of Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevens will help set up a 6th-7th-8th-9th inning back-end bullpen of Blevens-Salas-Hansel Robles-Reed until Jeurys Familia returns from his impending suspension.
Two good things have happened this past week to strengthen the pen.
The re-signing of Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevens will help set up a 6th-7th-8th-9th inning back-end bullpen of Blevens-Salas-Hansel Robles-Reed until Jeurys Familia returns from his impending suspension.
As for Reed, lock this guy down through the 2019 season and pray
that Jenrry Mejia can return someday to join
Reed and Jeurys Famila as a killer back end
bullpen.
On teh Jenry Mejia thing. There must be something I don't understand about lifetime ban.
ReplyDeleteJennry who? Anyone dumb enough to put himself in a position to be banned for "life" really can't be counted on if reinstated.
ReplyDeleteAddison Reed has been a super pen pick up. He has been great and his 2017 greatness level will be huge in determining how far this team goes.
I am hopeful we'll see the real Harvey again. As for Wheeler. We need to remember Zach was pitching for a long time with a troubled elbow that could have impacted his performance. If he is really fixed now, could he not be BETTER than before?
Richard -
ReplyDeleteLike the NFL 'lifetime ban', they all have wiggle room. I believe that baseball's version Mejia is the first professional baseball player to be banned 'for life' for drug abuse.
He could appeal after one year, he could be reinstated after 2 years. There is; however, a good chance that will be turned down and he will never pitch again.
I know I'm repeating myself, but I noted a glaring omission in the pen forecast above and want to remind the group that we've got a kid who can throw 100mph and is ready to blossom.
ReplyDeleteKeep your eyes on future closer (hopefully here) Hansel Robles.
you guys are gonna love /hate this...
ReplyDeleteBut should we trade Reed at the trade deadline (and I probably wouldn't) ..
But if you look at what came from the Andrew Miller deal or the Chapman deal, If Reed is having the same year as in 2016 would we not be crazy not to deal him if we are going to lose him for nothing (Since the Qualifying offer is not longer in play)....
Bill -
ReplyDeleteI clearly mentioned Robles at the end of the post -
"The re-signing of Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevens will help set up a 6th-7th-8th-9th inning back-end bullpen of Blevens-Salas-Hansel Robles-Reed until Jeurys Familia returns from his impending suspension."
Sorry, Mack, I missed that. Do you agree with my assessment of him? I see potential for greatness there if he can avoid the walks and HRs that have held him back.
DeleteEddie -
ReplyDeleteEvery player that is playing in the last year he is under contract is subject to these kind of trades.
Al this depends on how the other pen pitchers do, the progess of the weanies in AAA, and whether the Mets are in the race.
I thought about this last year but it is really a hard decision... We need him to contend but we could totally have a huge haul in the right deal...
ReplyDeletePraying maybe Wheeler makes this deal possible...
Bill -
ReplyDeleteI have always been high on the potential of Robles. He has all the skills, but very little control on his speed.
If he tones it down a couple of clicks and hits the box more, he will be a great reliever