Reese Kaplan -- Making the Pieces Fit Best

While there have been a great many articles already written about the leadoff conundrum, the questions for the Mets go much deeper.  The manager has made some would say puzzling batting order decisions, the most obvious of which is the ongoing use of Curtis Granderson at leadoff.  Let’s start with a blank sheet of paper and figure out the optimal way of using the available resources.

Leadoff

An ideal leadoff batter would have a high OBP, ideally good baserunning speed and someone who is adept at taking a walk to force pitchers to work harder.  Obviously Jose Reyes fits the bill in that role, but his availability in the lineup is very much dependent on the health of teammates who will push ahead of him on the depth chart if available to play. 

Curtis Granderson performed shall we say better than expected in that role.  For a guy who struggles to hit .240 his OBP is surprisingly strong.  He’s very good at taking walks, and although his baserunning ability isn’t what it once was, he won’t resemble Jay Bruce or Wilmer Flores going 1^st to 3^rd.  The problem with Granderson has always been the high strikeout totals which are the very antithesis of what you want from a leadoff guy.  He’s a Plan B (perhaps still Plan A) is Jose Reyes is not in the lineup. 

My oddball choice for leadoff (if healthy) is Captain David Wright.  High OBP?  Check.  Decent baserunning speed?  Check.  High number of walks?  Check.  Lower strikeout totals than Granderson?  Check?  Occasional power?  Check.  More importantly, the torque required to hit home runs has got to make him become more of a gap hitter and less of a big swinger.  Towards that end he could better serve the club there than in the customary middle-of-the-order position. 

2^nd Slot 

One of the creature-of-habit selections made by the manager is that if you play 2^nd then you must bat 2^nd.  Neil Walker got a great many ABs at that position in the batting order.  No one can argue with success as he was on the way to his most productive season ever before the back problems prematurely ended his season.  However, he’s showing he has middle-of-the-order potential and, to some extent, is perhaps wasted in the two-hole.

Again, without knowing the health of the other players it’s hard to speculate, but I could also build a case for David Wright being a number 2 hitter at this stage of his career.  That slot in the order should belong to someone who can take a pitch to allow the leadoff guy to run, who has good bat discipline and who is adept at hitting behind the runner. 

The other obvious option would appear to be Asdrubal Cabrera.  He’s in many ways a clone of Neil Walker.  They both hit for power, modest strikeouts and hit .280 and .282. 

The less obvious choice is a guy who strikes out relatively little and needs to learn he doesn’t have to hit the ball over the wall to be successful.  That would be Travis d’Arnaud.  The thing that makes him less than ideal here is his baserunning speed and the likelihood he could turn a leadoff hitter’s success into a double play. 

3^rd Slot

This one is pretty much without argument.  It should go to the best overall hitter on the club and that would be Yoenis Cespedes.  He is a bit odd in that he has reverse platoon splits but the manager usually doesn’t notice such things (witness his use of the bullpen).  Towards that end some might say with the Mets’ plethora of lefty hitters, you might want to sandwich Cespedes between a few of them.  I’m not averse to that if one of the lefties is Michael Conforto.  However, with all-or-nothing hitters like Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda I’m not sure I’d buy off on giving any of them that 3-hole. 

Cleanup

Here is the spot for your traditional masher – the guy who is guaranteed to hit 30+ long balls.  I’ll take hell for saying it, but of the three lefty choices that honor goes to much maligned Jay Bruce whose annual totals far exceed what Lucas Duda has ever done and what Curtis Granderson can do at this stage of his career. 

5^th Slot

Here is cleanup hitter-lite.  It should be a guy who can knock the ball over the wall and rack up good RBI totals.  Although it gives you two lefties in succession, that role belongs to Lucas Duda. 

6^th Slot

Neil Walker has hit for more power over the course of his career than has Asdrubal Cabrera, so he’s the next logical hitter.

7^th Slot

By default (not through any fault of his own) that would make Asdrubal Cabrera the natural hitter to follow Walker in the lineup. 

8^th Slot

Well, if they don’t consider moving d’Arnaud than this spot is where he belongs until he proves he can hit at least as well as he did in the 2015 season. 

Recommendation With Wright (Against Righties)

• Granderson
• Wright
• Cespedes
• Bruce
• Duda
• Walker
• Cabrera
• d’Arnaud

Recommendation Without Wright (Against Righties)

• Reyes
• Granderson
• Cespedes
• Bruce
• Duda
• Walker
• Cabrera
• d’Arnaud

Recommendation With Wright (Against Lefties)

• Wright
• Cabera
• Cespedes
• Bruce
• Flores
• Walker
• d’Arnaud
• Lagares

Recommendation Without Wright (Against Lefties)

• Reyes
• Cabrera
• Cespedes
• Bruce
• Flores
• Walker
• d’Arnaud
• Lagares