Reese Kaplan -- 2018: A Tabula Rasa Approach

While things have certainly not progressed the way the fans and management had hoped, the Mets are approaching the fabled crossroads where they must decide if they are indeed going to stage a miraculous comeback that propels them into contention, or if they should start the 2018 rebuild efforts now while there’s still some minor value in their scheduled-to-depart free agents at year’s end. 

For the people sporting rose-colored glasses, they must surely buy into the Sandy Alderson sit pat and do nothing strategy he employed in the off-season.  Obviously the only issue at hand is injuries.  Once everyone is back and healthy the team will win.

Really?

It seems to me that they barely eked into the playoffs before making an embarrassing and hasty exit in 2016.  With no reinforcements it was somewhat puzzling to expect they would do any better than they had, yet that was “The Plan” from the front office.  How’d that work out for you?

With multiple players having suffered major injuries during the previous season you’d think they would have prepared for more of the same by bolstering the roster, but they chose not to do so and as a result they’re skidding into oblivion at a much faster pace.  Consequently I put myself into the “chalk it up to bad luck and bad planning, but make adjustments and move on” school of thought.

First, let’s look at what payroll is potentially leaving:

Lucas Duda -- $7,250,000

Neil Walker -- $17,200,000

Asdrubal Cabrera $8,250,00 (or $2 milllion buyout)

David Wright  -- $10,000,000 million insurance payment (Mets first 1/3 and then 25% of remainder)

Curtis Granderson -- $16,000,000

Jay Bruce -- $13,000,000

Addison Reed -- $7,750,000

That’s a total potential spending budget of $69,200,000 assuming they pay off Asdrubel Cabrera and let everyone walk.  They won’t necessarily do that but this exercise is starting with a pretty much blank slate on how you would construct the 2018 team.

1B – Dom Smith

2B – Wilmer Flores

SS – Amed Rosario

3B – Mike Moustakas (FA – 3/$42)

C – J.T. Realmuto

LF – Yoenis Cespedes

CF – Michael Conforto

RF – J.D. Martinez (FA – 4/$64)

B – Rene Rivera

B – T.J.Rivera

B – Asdrubal Cabrera (option $8,250,000)

B – Brandon Nimmo

B – Juan Lagares

SP – Noah Syndergaard

SP – Jacob de Grom

SP – Steve Matz

SP – Zack Wheeler

SP – Seth Lugo/Robert Gsellman

RP – Jeurys Familia

RP – Addison Reed (2 years, $18 million)

RP – Jerry Blevins

RP – Paul Sewald

RP – Fernando Salas

RP – Josh Edgin

RP – Gsellman/Lugo

In this scenario you will note that neither Jay Bruce nor Lucas Duda are here anymore.  There will be plenty of left handed pop from the trio of Moustakas, Conforto and Smith.  The problem many have with Smith is that he’s not a prototypical slugger for 1^st base.  Let me remind you that neither Keith Hernandez nor John Olerud were either, but they were excellent ballplayers whose prowess on both the offensive and defensive sides of the game made them forces with whom to be reckoned.  Olerud, for example, averaged 18/89/.295 for his entire career.  Wouldn’t you take that from Smith and be happy?

The other thing that jumps out are two notable names who are not free agents That I no longer envision being a part of the team.  My proposal is to send Matt Harvey and Travis d’Arnaud to the Miami Marlins for young stud catcher J.T. Realmuto.  For people who don’t pay attention to south Florida baseball, Realmuto in his first three full seasons has hit .259, then .303 and this year .290.  More importantly, he stays healthy.  He’s just 26, so he’s a long term solution for the team.  Harvey is a recovering work in progress who is about to become an expensive free agent after the 2018 season.  d’Arnaud is what he is – full of potential but unable to stay on the field.  This package should entice the Marlins, though feel free to substitute one of the younger pitching prospects such as Marcos Molina or Justin Dunn for Harvey.  Is it an overpay to include the tarnished Dark Knight of Gotham?  Perhaps…but it’s that old trade ‘em a year too soon than a year too late philosophy and it sets the tone that his shenanigans won’t be part of the new Mets team.  If you lose him to free agency you get nothing but a compensatory pick.  Here you get a catcher who may be an All Star and is 2 years younger.

The free agent acquisitions include a shorter deal for the older Moustakas and a slightly longer one for the younger J.D. Martinez.  With these two bats secured, the Mets would have plenty of right handed power as well from Yoenis Cespedes, Martinez and Flores.  Throw in the high average hitting expected from Amed Rosario and J.T. Realmuto and there’s not a weak link (nor an all-or-nothing swinger) in the lineup.

I’ve spent just $43 of the $69 million coming off the books, leaving $22 million for future enhancements or better depth to stash in AAA should the wheels fall off the rotation once again.  

I’m all for giving the reins to David Wright as a bridge from the old to the new and to allow him to reinvent himself as manager.  As Terry Collins has shown, you can make a dozen or more horrible decisions per week and they will still give you a fat paycheck.  Replacing him isn’t exactly like replacing Tony La Russa or Bobby Cox.  Anything beyond a .500 record is an improvement and Wright certainly seems like a smart enough guy to deliver that. 

What’s your master plan for 2018?