So the towel has officially been thrown in on the 2017
season (though if it had been a fight the referee would have ruled a TKO long
ago). Better late than never, I always
say. It will be interesting to find out
between the first trade deadline and the August waiver trade deadline who might
still be departing for greener pastures.
With Lucas Duda now a part of Mets history and Drew Smith potentially
part of its future, let’s take a look at how the roster might look for next
season.
1B – There’s no reason to believe Dominic Smith won’t be
given every opportunity to prove himself.
In AAA he’s hitting for average, power, driving in runs and flashing
good leather at 1B. Capable backups
include Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera, both of whom happen to bat from the
right side when the Madison Bumgarner types take the hill.
2B – Ah, here’s quite the conundrum. Do they bring back Neil Walker? Do they bring back Asdrubal Cabrera? Do they hand the keystone position to T.J. Rivera
or Wilmer Flores? What about Gavin
Cecchini? My crystal ball says they will
hold an open competition between Rivera and Flores for the role, with the
resulting DEFENSIVE superior getting the nod.
By this time they know what both can do with the bat. If you want a higher average, go for
T.J. If you want more dingers, Wilmer’s
your man. What neither has shown to do
well is field any position they’ve tried.
If they’re entrusting the spot to one of them, I have a feeling it will
come down to glove rather than bat.
Either one will help score runs, but who’s going to give away the fewest
of them?
SS – They’re banking heavily on Amed Rosario being the real
deal, a latter day Jose Reyes who can contribute in all facets of the
game. Since his once and future Met role
model is still persona non grata around baseball, I have a feeling he’ll be
back in a utility role and as insurance that Rosario has growing pains.
3B – I have a feeling that the Mets will try to make a
well-insured contract to have Neil Walker return at 3B. He provides veteran leadership, seems to
enjoy playing here and could be a good role model for the otherwise very young
infield. He is grossly overpaid at $17.2
million and he’s likely not going to garner his true value having missed
significant time each of the past two years with injuries. Consequently I think the Mets will try to
come in somewhere around 3 years/$39 million to offer him job security. Frankly, I think he’d take it as many other
clubs are going to be gun shy given his recent injury history. If he delivers a career average 2.4 WAR and
each 1.0 is worth $8 million, then he’d be a bargain at that price.
C – Here’s the big mystery.
Travis d’Arnaud’s bat has come alive the past month or so, but he’s
probably not going to finish with big enough numbers to ensure he’s handed the
starting gig. The problem is that there
are very few catchers ever made available who can provide both defense and
offense. The free agent pickings are
rather slim. You could try to cash in on
a sub-par season from Jonathon Lucroy who is set for free agency if Texas doesn’t
extend him, but his reputation as a receiver is that he’s a good hitter. Tomas Nido is at least another full year away
and hit a bump in his offensive road this year, so this position is one of
tremendous need. Personally, I saw enough
of d’Arnaud’s bat to think that he’s worth holding over for another year,
though I’d like to see if Kevin Plawecki can force his name into the
conversation. Neither are great catchers
but then the available options on the table are about as appealing as 3-day old
sushi.
LF – Yoenis Cespedes.
Enough said.
CF – Michael Conforto should get the gig. He’s handled the role competently and with
more playing time he has the athleticism (if not the pure speed) to make
himself into a plus player out there.
RF – Here’s another twisted tale. They tried to sell Jay Bruce in the
off-season and failed. They are trying
to sell Jay Bruce in his best offensive year ever and not finding much interest. Bruce has commented he wants to try free
agency, so the Mets are probably going to hang onto him to net the compensatory
draft pick provided by making a QO which he’s likely to turn down (unlike the
unhealthy Neil Walker who realized there was no market for a guy coming off
back surgery). However, I think Bruce is
going to repeat the Daniel Murphy situation, spurning the QO to sign for less
money elsewhere. Somebody ought to
mention that to the man since he’s since proven in 2017 that he CAN play in NY
and he would be part of one of the better offensive outfields in the game
should he choose to stay. If not, I
think the Mets go all-in on J.D. Martinez who is younger and right handed, a
plus considering they still have the lefty bats of Conforto and Smith, plus the
switch hitting Wallker.
SP – Jacob deGrom
SP – Noah Syndergaard
After this dynamic duo it gets pretty murky. What is left of Matt Harvey? What about Seth Lugo? Rafael Montero has pitched way better of
late (until Friday night, that is). Steven Matz has been flat out
awful. Ditto Robert Gsellman. Chris Flexen had a rather forgettable debut,
but you can’t write him off after one game.
Personally, I think they would do well to consider some outside
help in the FA market. While Jake Arrieta
and Yu Darvish will have all of the GMs salivating big time, the two guys I’d
pursue with some of that departing FA money burning a hole in my pocket are
Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Both have
pitched in relative obscurity compared to the other two but done nearly as
well. They’re healthy and younger. Perhaps they could form a good 3-4 in your
rotation with Harvey et al battling for number five? At least this way you’d have backup options should
you lose any of your starters to injury.
The others could work out of the now barren pen.
RP – Jeurys Familia, Jerry Blevins and Paul Sewald should be
no-brainers. Throw in newcomer A.J. Ramos as well. After that it’s a
mess. Many are fond of Hansel Robles,
but as Tom Brennan has pointed out on many occasions, he gives outfielders neck
strain by forcing them to turn suddenly to watch balls flying out of the
park. Josh Edgin has seemingly lost his
mojo. Josh Smoker never found his. Erik Goeddel is a replacement level warm
body. Ditto Tyler Pill. Don’t get me started on Fernando Salas.
What they don’t spend on starting pitching they should
consider to fortify the pen. I am
already penciling in whomever remains of Steve Matz, Rafael Montero and Seth
Lugo as bullpen options but it certainly can’t hurt to get some solid setup
guys at moderate (but higher than the Mets typically spend) money to help hold
down games. Drew Smith could help
balance out the cost of say a Tony Watson or Jake McGee from the left side, or
Luke Gregerson, Joe Smith, Steve Cishek or Koji Uehara from the right side.
Given that I don’t foresee them spending MORE money on the
infield than they did this year, J.D. Martinez or Jay Bruce should be a
wash. That means the Curtis Granderson,
Lucas Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera and other money is available to help fortify the
team. If there’s a new management team
in place I can see that happening. If
not, expect more of the same old same old.
