Reese Kaplan -- 2018 Bullpen is Mighty Crowded

Early in his tenure as Mets GM, "Shecky" Alderson quipped, “What outfield?” when asked about the dearth of quality players roaming the greens behind the infield dirt.  However, after having endured the man’s team building philosophy for seven long and painful years, perhaps the question he should have asked is, “What bullpen?”

Now to be fair to the man, he has perhaps recognized this flaw in his recent past.  To wit, he’s overcompensated to the tune of seven relievers added to the organization during the great selloff of 2017.  How much is quality and how much is quantity is still to be determined, but perhaps a few years down the road he will be vindicated instead of vilified for how seemingly little he obtained in return for some solid major league talent departing.

Going into 2018 there appear to be four locks for the bullpen – closer, Jeurys Familia, former Marlins closer and now the new Addison Reed, A.J. Ramos, and lefty Jerry Blevins.  Rookie Paul Sewald is an odd-on favorite to have a role as well.  After that there are likely to be open auditions including out-of-options Rafael Montero, lefty Josh Smoker, and righty Erik Goeddel.  Also, you must consider that if any of the walking wounded are indeed ready to resume their spots in the starting rotation the leftovers like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman might be in the mix for pen assignments as well.  Then there are the folks who are pretty much playing themselves out of a role like Hansel Robles, and the ones with an incomplete grade like Chasen Bradford and Kevin McGowan. 

As documented yesterday by Tom Brennan, some of these newcomers are off to nice starts.  The ones to focus on in particular are Drew Smith, Jacob Rhame and Jamie Callahan.  

Smith, for some reason, was assigned to Binghamton where he is dominating as he has done at each level in the Tampa organization prior to coming here in exchange for Lucas Duda.  His career ERA in the minors is a sparkling 1.75 with a WHIP of 0.93 and over 10 Ks per 9 IP.  They may have him skip over AAA to see if he can carry that momentum to the big club next year.

Next up is recent Dodger import Jacob Rhame.  He’s pitched to a respectable 3.10 ERA for his career, sports a 1.13 WHIP and decent control for a young pitcher – 2.9 BBs per 9 IP while fanning nearly 11 over the same span.  His Oklahoma City numbers showed greater control than in the past, but unfortunately he gave up more hits than innings pitched.  He’s a definite possibility for the 2018 pen. 

Finally, there is flame thrower Jamie Callahan.  He has actually gotten a bit better in terms of strikeouts as he’s ascended through the ranks.  He’s fanning 11 to nearly 14 batters per 9 IP but unfortunately he’s walking as many as 5 per 9 IP as well (shades of Josh Smoker).   He’s at best a work-in-progress and not someone I would bank on for future stardom. 

If you consider that the Mets have at minimum three slots to fill, then it’s an interesting competition.  Right off the bat you could make the argument they would go to Lugo, Gsellman and Montero.  However, both Lugo and Gsellman have options, so if relieving is where they see their futures, then they might be sent to AAA to work out of the pen there to adjust. 

Other pitchers in the organization include the recently outrighted Josh Edgin, the currently injured but prior to Las Vegas dominant David Roseboom, this year’s top reliever in AAA, Kyle Regnault and assorted other warm bodies.

If there is a change afoot in the front office then there may be an attempt to bring in major league talent with an established track record in the bullpen.  Given the struggles the rotation has had with health each of the past two years, it certainly can’t hurt to have someone who knows how to retire hitters once the starters falter.  Then again the Mets have not been fond of paying for bullpen talent despite how, for example, Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed were instrumental in helping to get them to the World Series. 

Methinks the stockpiling of bullpen arms is a prelude to dealing away relievers in trades.  There is clearly a surplus here though you could argue what good a surplus does you if much of it is bruised, damaged or rotting on the vine.  Right now you figure Jacob  de Grom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey are locks for the 2018 rotation.  Then you have the various injured starters – Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo.  Throw in Rafael Montero, Robert Gsellman, Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt and perhaps Tyler Pill all seeking a back-of-the-rotation slot.  That’s a lot of pitching, though the quality and health are most definitely suspect.  I expect to see deals made to bring in more starting pitching and it may take folks like Montero who is out of options and some of this reliever surplus to get it done.