Reese Kaplan -- A Look at the 2018 40-Man Roster

Let’s take a look at the Mets 40-man roster and see who is likely to be a part of it come 2018.  As you know, a player on the 40-man roster gets three option years for a team to use.  Each year a player is promoted from the minors to the majors and then returned to the minors an option is used up.  Note that you can send a player back and forth as many times as you wish during a given year and only burn a single option. 

A good example is Rafael Montero who is currently on the major league team, but who has been back and forth during the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons, thus using up his three options.  One of the reasons he started the year in Las Vegas is because they no longer have the flexibility to option him back to the minors.  Right now if the Mets wanted to return Montero he would have to be “outrighted” to the minors as his three options have been used up.  Outrighting a player exposes him to waivers and another ballclub can claim the player from the Mets.  If more than one claim is made, the team with the lesser record gets priority. 

The composition of the New York Mets 40-man roster in 2018 is likely to be wildly different than who’s on it currently.  In addition to the major leagues squad of 25 players plus the people on the 10-day DL, you also have the following on the 40-man roster:

• Wuilmer Becerra
• Gavin Cecchini
• Marcos Molina
• Tyler Pill
• Tomas Nido
• Kevin Plawecki
• Matt Reynolds

Going into next season there would appear to be several people who are vulnerable to losing their spot on the 40 man roster.  Let’s start with the obvious ones:

• Curtis Granderson
• Jay Bruce
• Neil Walker
• Rene Rivera
• Fernando Salas
• Asdrubal Cabrera

This group of players have expiring contracts.  In the case of Cabrera, the Mets hold a $2 million option which they would have to pay in order to cut him.  To keep him would cost $8.5 million.  If the plan is to play Amed Rosario at SS with some combination of T.J. Rivera, Wilmer Flores or Gavin Cecchini available at 2B, they may decide to cut ties with their disgruntled infielder.  As soon as the season ends, you have 5-6 open roster spots.

Next would be the group of players on the 40-man roster whose performance or “out-of-options” status renders them vulnerable to be booted.  This group would include:

• Rafael Montero (out of options)
• Erik Goeddel (out of options)
• Chasen Bradford
• Matt Reynolds
• Kevin Plawecki (out of options)
• Tyler Pill
• Wuilmer Becerra (big step backwards in performance this year)

That’s potentially seven more casualties leaving 12 to 13 spots possibly open for additions from within the minor league ranks and/or from the outside (if the GM realizes his mistake and actually does think he needs to add players this off-season). 

Some almost sure to be added include:

• Dominic Smith
• Drew Smith
• P.J. Conlon
• Corey Oswalt

In addition, there are some MLB rules forcing teams to add players to the 40-man roster lest they risk losing them in the Rule V draft.  If you sign a player at age 18 or younger then they must be added after 5 years.  Players 19 or older must be added after four years in the minors.  I’ll leave the research and speculation to Tom Brennan or others more focused on the minor league channels to determine who falls into this special category. 

Remember, too, that you have a number of people on the 60-day DL who do not count against your 40-man roster for now but who must be added back once the season ends unless you plan to cut ties with them altogether.  In the former category you have David Wright, Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia.  In the latter you have Tommy Milone. 

You do have quite a number of people on the 10-day DL as well, but they remain a part of the 40-man roster, so that doesn't change the overall number of vacancies.  

The long and short of it is that the 2018 roster will be vastly different, even if it goes against the inertia Sandy Alderson has lulled the fans into expecting.