Reese Kaplan -- Look at Me, I Can Play Centerfield

With the ongoing payroll purge underway many people are hypothesizing about how to spend the money.  Wouldn’t a Mike Moustakas look good at 3B?  How about a Jonathon Lucroy behind the dish?  What about Yu Darvish on the hill?

Today what I’d like to examine is the big question about centerfield.  Since 2014 that position has belonged in part or in full to the soon to be departed (well, from the Mets, anyway) Curtis Granderson.  In the words of J. Peterman on the old Seinfeld episode, “Thank you for a job…done.”  Yes, he showed power and the ability to draw a walk, but the 40 home run days were never seen and the stolen base was pretty much a thing of the past as well.  He averaged 23 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .239 batting average over his Mets tenure.  While those numbers are not too bad for someone batting leadoff as he’s done for much of his time here, the thought behind the $60 million investment was a middle-of-the-order hitter which he has not provided.  Others might argue if you assign a value of $7 million or so per WAR then his 2.6 WAR average as a Met has him fulfilling the cost of his contract.  Regardless of which side you’re on, he is likely not going to be here next year, so it raises the question about who will.

Many people remember fondly the 2014 season during which Juan Lagares was a .281 hitter and Gold Glove winner who flashed occasional power and a little bit of speed.  It was growth on those attributes that led the Mets to extend his contract for several more years, escalating dramatically in price each year as they ensured themselves a post-season berth every year for the foreseeable future.

Well, like the injuries that derailed Lagares’ career, the Mets’ collective plans to be competitive into October have gone up in smoke.  Lagares continues to get more expensive and each year since the World Series appearance in 2015 the Mets have taken steps and then sprints backwards. 

2017 was no better for Lagares than 2016 in terms of his health.  His latest has been a fractured thumb which only this past weekend allowed him to return to the major leagues.  He is having a disappointing year to say the least.  He’s not even yet had 100 ABs, with 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 2 SBs and a .266 AVG.  After his arm betrayed him earlier in his career, that part of his game returned, but then so too did Michael Conforto and as a result playing time has been as hard to find as a well­-rested pitcher in a Collins bullpen.

A lot of people are clamoring for a strong defensive presence in centerfield with both Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto showing the offensive abilities to handle the corner roles.  Many folks say, “Hey, go with Lagares.  He’s here, he’s under contract and he’s already won a Gold Glove!”

To that I would say you’d be buying into the fallacy of a sunk cost.  Juan Lagares will cost $6.5 million in 2018, $9 million in 2019 and then require either a $9.5 million option in 2020 or you let him leave as a free agent. 

What do you get for the $15.5 million remaining on the two years of his contract?  IF, and that’s a huge pre-qualifier, he can stay healthy, then he averages per year .259/6/44 with 10 SBs.  I know baseball payrolls sometimes seem like they are paid with Monopoly money, but jeesh, for $7.75 million per year I’d expect a lot more.  The challenge to whomever is making the personnel decisions is to bundle Juan Lagares with perhaps one or more of the “valuable” relievers Sandy Alderson just acquired and get another team to bite before you’re on the hook for the rest of that ridiculous contract.

Well, what about Brandon Nimmo?  You remember him (even if Terry Collins doesn’t).  He’s had only about 100 ABs over two partial years in the big leagues and hasn’t exactly set the house afire.  His greatest attribute is apparently his ability to take a walk.  That could be parlayed into something wonderful if he could run like an in-his-prime Jose Reyes, but he’s not that swift afoot.  He has not demonstrated much power at all.  He’s a decent corner outfielder and a work-in-progress in centerfield.  By Mets standards, his greatest attribute is his price which at around major league minimum means he’s the holy grail of baseball entities – controlled cost.  Whether or not the team once again places cost above winning is yet to be seen.  His minor league numbers show about 10 HRs, 60 RBIs and 9 SBs with a .280 batting average per 500 ABs.  Like Lagares, it’s not awful, but it’s far from great.

So what about going outside the organization?  There are surely free agents worth considering, right? 

The key word here is “worth” as the selling price for ballplayers (assuming they would want to come to a team in total disarray) can be steep.  Occasionally you’ll see a bargain slip through like Nelson Cruz once settling for a pay cut to $8 million for the 2014 Baltimore Orioles and delivering 40 HRs and 108 RBIs.  However, the more frequent development is paying a slugger something on the order of $138 million on an 8 year contract extension and in the first year getting rewarded with just 18 HRs and 58 RBIs. 

One name you’ll hear floated around is Jarrod Dyson who got to spend some time on a national stage with the Royals run to the World Championship.  He’s earning a modest $2.8 million and could provide some strong base running speed (30+ steals) but he has no power and is just a career .260 hitter.

The man the Mets let get away and then almost landed for a teary Wilmer Flores is set to be a free agent.  Carlos Gomez is probably somewhat overpaid at $11.5 million as he’s been trending downward for a few years now in terms of his speed.  He’s got 11 SBs this year in about half a season’s worth of ABs which is not terrible but he’d once been a 40 SB threat and that’s about a 50% reduction in swiping bases.  Although he’s hitting a modest .251 (close to his career .256 average), he has hit 14 HRs with 42 RBIs in just 303 ABs.  There’s something there and he used to have the reputation for being a plus fielder.  However, opinions have changed on that as well. What would it take to land him?  I’m thinking he’d be looking at 3 years and $42 million as an absolute starting point but that package is probably overly optimistic for the acquiring team.  After all, an inferior player in Dexter Fowler got a 1 year deal from the Cubs in 2016 for $13 million and then landed a 5 year deal for $82.5 million ($16.5 million per year).  I don’t see it as a good investment for a 32 year old already slowing down.  Fowler’s numbers are eerily similar this year to what Gomez is doing with even less speed.  I can’t see him expecting anything less.  Please pass.

Lorenzo Cain is also well known to the Mets from his 2015 World Series appearance.  Having spent virtually his entire career with the Kansas City Royals, he was an All Star and finished third in the MVP voting while helping lead the Royals to humiliating Terry Collins’ Mets while establishing his career highs in HRs, RBIs, AVG and tying for SBs.  Unlike his rival from the Rangers, his numbers have continued to be strong with a 17 HR, 76 RBI, 30 SB average over 162 games during the past three years.  He achieved this productivity while hitting a robust .296.  Having only once in his career having fanned over 100 times, he’s the kind of plus defender and contact hitter the team has been lacking for quite some time.  Unfortunately, this $11 million man is going to be cashing in as one of the huge prizes of the free agent lottery with a contract demand likely in the 5 year, $100 million range for a guy whose game is heavily dependent on his legs.  He’ll turn 32 during 2018 and you’d be on the hook through age 37.  I would be interested if you could construct an average annual value at a higher rate but a term of no more than three years – say 3/$66 million.  Would he bite?  Probably not. 

Finally, my dark horse candidate to replace Juan Lagares is the recovering-from-injury Ben Revere.  While playing for the Phillies he was a lock for six straight seasons to hit .300 and steal more than 35 bases.  He was hurt last year in Washington and lost CF to rookie SS Trea Turner playing out of position.  He was picked up on a low cost $4 million deal for the Giants and improved but not to his previous levels.  He’s hitting in the .250s but in 230 Abs he has 17 SBs, well on a pace to approach 40 for the season.  (As a sad reminder, the Mets team leader in steals is 35 year old Jose Reyes with 14 in an extra 150 Abs.  I’m thinking a similar $4 million deal could land Revere again and at age 29 his legs probably have 3-5 more good years in them.  Just as importantly, the Washington Nationals GM said he’s one of the strongest defensive outfielders in the league. 

My recommendation would be to jettison Juan Lagares and perhaps Brandon Nimmo, sign Ben Revere with an eye towards a 4^th outfielder role and still make a play for Lorenzo Cain.  With Revere you get superior speed and equivalent defense to Lagares, and Cain provides you with another high contact hitter to go along with Dom Smith as you transition away from the all-or-nothing formula that’s failed. If Cain balks, there's always his teammate Moustakas who might want to grab the Wilpons' Benjamins.The Mets have some candidates for 2B and 3B in Flores, Rivera, Asdrubal Cabrera and Gavin Cecchini (plus Jose Reyes as a utility player).  I would argue CF is a greater position of need than 3B.  

What say you?