Turning the Page: How to Improve the Defense in 2018

     As the Mets wind down the 2017 season, it’s time to reflect on the failures of the season and what changes can be made in 2018 to turn the team’s fortunes back around.

     Over the past few seasons, the club has essentially completely ignored the old baseball adage of “having strong defenders up the middle.” Instead focusing on mashing more Home Runs than anyone else and building a pitching staff that mitigates defense by having High K rates.

     During the 2015 World Series run, the team produced a +3 Defensive Runs Saved metric. At first glance this reads as though the club had a league average defense, however, from a positional standpoint, there were clear weak spots that reared their ugly heads during the World Series vs the defensively superior Kansas City Royals. At 2B, Daniel Murphy led a group that produced -10 DRS. At SS, Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada combined to produce -26 DRS… which was the worst mark in baseball by an EXTREMELY wide margin. Lastly, the revolving door that was 3B, 5 players combined to produce -14 DRS there.

     Alderson took steps to improve this shortcoming for the 2016, bringing in more consistent, albeit still mediocre, defenders for 2B and SS in Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera which led to an improvement of 19 runs. However, the revolving door at 3B got even worse combined with with ill-fated idea of using Yeonis Cespedes as a CF costed them more runs then they gained. Overall the team netted a -13 DRS total for the season... still rather average for the league.

     This brings us to 2017…. where injuries and aging based regressions ravaged the team at all levels causing everyone to play out of position at essentially every spot on the diamond. Cabrera at 2B (-6 DRS), Flores and Reyes at 3B (-11 DRS), Cabrera and Reyes at SS (-20 DRS), and the Granderson/Conforto in CF (-11 DRS). Combined the team is the 3rd worst defensive team in baseball… ahead of only the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s.

  So how do we fix this for 2018? Well, part of the problem has already been solved with the promotions of SS Amed Rosario and 1B Dominic Smith. Both are well regarded and viewed as above average to superior defenders at their respective positons. There are 2 other things that, in my opinion, need to be done to fully fix the problem.

A) Play Juan Lagares Regardless of His Offensive Output.

•      The average stat line for Center Fielders in 2017 is a .266 AVG with an .772 OPS with a +5 DRS metric. Lagares is never going to be able to match the power production of other CFs in the league but he can at least hold his own in the AVG department as his current .261 AVG in 2017, and career mark of .260 AVG, both match up close to the MLB for the position. What Lagares brings to the table is the ability to FAR outproduce the league average for DRS. Presently, Lagares is averaging +26 DRS! each season during his 5-year career.
  
       That mark outperforms every single player during those 5 years except for 2 guys, Kevin Kiermaier in 2015 (+42 DRS) and Carlos Gomez in 2013 (+38). While Gomez was All-World in his season…. Kiermaier’s offensive stat line wasn’t THAT impressive with a .263 AVG and a .718 OPS, BOTH of which were below the MLB average for the position. Yet, even with just that “OK” offensive line, Kiermaier was worth +7.3 Wins Above Replacement level won a Gold Glove AND received MVP votes.

B) Stop the Revolving Door at 3B

•      Please, forget about David Wright! For the sake of the team, move on as if he is never going to play a single inning ever again. I say this because, even when David was around during 2015 and 2016, his defensive play had taken a severe downturn as he produced back to back seasons of -8 DRS at 3B. Even if he looks like he could return in 2018, the team needs to act as if he is nothing more than an expensive lefty mashing bench piece. Now…as for his replacement… there are 3 reasonable routes I can see the club going.

1. Sign Free Agent 3B Mike Moustakas
   
        First, let’s preface this with the following, Moustakas is not a “good” defender. Just like when the club brought in Walker to replace Murphy, you’re essentially bringing in a consistent average defender to fill a spot that has been horrendous thus netting you a solid gain. Second, this is the most expensive option on the table. Moustakas is the midst of his best offensive season in his career and is going to be paid accordingly in free agency. The most recent large 3B signings are Pablo Sandoval’s 5 year/$95M and Hanley Ramirez’s 4 year/$88M contracts, both signed 3 years ago. With that in mind…. I would take a strong guess that it would require at least a 5 year/$120M contract ($24M AAV) to sign him.
   
   
   
2. Trade for 3B Adrian Beltre
   
        This is a more unique approach, that I think the team should consider. For 2018, Beltre will be in the final year of his contract for $18M and is currently displeased with the potential of a rebuild occurring in Texas. Back on August 2nd in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, Beltre said, “At this stage of my career, I’m not here for a rebuild.” Even at 38 years old, Beltre still posts double digit positive DRS numbers and still churns out .300 AVG, .850+ OPS seasons. In addition, with the team getting younger, it would be wise to bring in a big-name veteran who can be an asset in the clubhouse and a mentor for the young position players coming up. In addition, should the move work out well, the team could offer Beltre a Qualifying Offer for 2019 and potentially pick up a draft pick.
   
   
   
3. Exercise Asdrubal Cabrera’s 2018 Option
   
        If the club thinks that being a full-time 3B would help Cabrera improve his defensive numbers, then this would be the most conservative and the most cost efficient move. A healthy Asdrubal Cabrera is still a solid contributor in any team’s line-up as he is still capable of posting .270 AVG, .775 OPS numbers which is right around where the average MLB 3B is right now. At only $8.5M, choosing this option would allow Alderson to invest more money into the bullpen or more depth in the starting rotation.

  Improving this team’s defense to a unit that can produce league average to above average results will easily be enough to at least get this team back to being an over .500 winning percentage group. From there, it’s up to the pitching rotation to remain healthy and effective to get them from a 81-81 team to a 90-72 or better playoff caliber team.