Peter Hyatt - Predictions for 2018: Dom Smith

This is the first in a series of articles to predict what we will see out of some of our players next season.  I begin with Dom Smith. 

Recently, the media has written that Dom Smith is likely to start 2018 in AAA. 

Don't buy it.  If we have a new manager at the helm, Smith is the starting first baseman on Opening Day.    

Dom Smith's future looks bright.  Here is why: 

Smith is a smart kid.  He thinks and he thinks.  

Smith hates to lose.  He is slow to celebrate personal success in losses.  Review a few of his home runs and watch Jose Reyes come out to dance with him.  Note not only Smith's body language, but watch his face.  Smith is not that impressed and does not share Reyes' love of personal achievement and the camera while losing.  Smith is not alone in this.  

Smith is a dedicated athlete. 

He is not going to spend the winter eating pizza and drinking beer.  His statement about late night eats in Vegas and the expense were genuine and truthful.  At the MLB minimum (half-million dollars), he can afford whole foods and a cook.  Better still, if drawn to the Conforto type, he will copy Conforto's nutrition (similar to what Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and others used) and with weigh lifting, flexibility, plenty of rest, expect him to come in to Florida strong in March.  

Smith is taking it all in and is on a major learning curve.  

Expect Smith to spend the off season building strength and flexibility and expect him to come out strong and having watched countless hours of video of his at bats and of pitchers he expects to face next year. 

He is this type of athlete.  This is why MLB teams spend more attention than they can ever allow to reach media on "player evaluations", which they cannot call "psych evals" for a variety of reasons.  In other words, every team knows which players in the MLB are good influences on young players and which are poison.  They know which will harm their own come backs from workouts and injuries with alcohol and less sleep, and which ones will enhance work outs and rehabs with nutrition and sleep.  

Dom Smith is a serious and dedicated young man.  

Dom Smith is just learning why the gap between AAA and AAAA exists.  There are those who do very well at the AAA level but never succeed at the Major League level and get stuck in this "no-man's land" of quad A status:  too good for AAA but not good enough for MLB.

Smith saw pitches he did not know existed. 

Smith saw pitches move like he has not seen them move before. 

Smith saw pitchers work counts differently than he has ever seen before.  

He faced some of the greatest pitchers in the world and it takes time for the brain to adjust; especially at his age. 

He'll do it. 

Keith Hernandez does a good job describing this jump and how difficult it is.  For many players, it takes lots of at bats for the brain to process the less than millisecond of time adjustments in dictating the muscles what to do. Smith's power output is proof positive that he is coming around.  He is hitting more home runs at this level than in the minors where he has always been a good-for-average hitter.  This should naturally translate with repetitions and the support of a developmental manager. 

It is acutely stressful to face a 97mph fast ball while the brain is guessing a 83 mph curve.  

When we factor in a new level of stress, it becomes even more challenging.  What stress?

The stress of believing that one must do it all in one at - bat, or one game.  This is the pressure that Michael Conforto faced in April of 2017 under Terry Collins with the belief:  if I do not hit today, I will not play tomorrow.  Collins was looking to find ways to keep him out of the line up so he could play vets.  Conforto forced his hand. 

Smith needs to know that he will get the at-bats he needs to work through things.  He cannot face the stress of believing that if he goes 0 for 4, a 1.2 million dollar waiver wire 36 year old is going to take his place.  If we want to see Dom Smith dominate first base and Citi Field for the next decade, he must be allowed to develop.  

This is not Terry Collins' forte. 

There is something else that gives me optimism for Dom Smith in 2018.  Besides the hope that Collins will be gone, there is another issue that may not hold the same weight on the shoulders of the young man, as well as a number of young players in the Mets organization. 

Deep Counts

Sandy Alderson's addiction to Sabermetrics has cost the Mets more than most of us realize and more than any of us could quantify. 

It became an organization wide mandate that hitters work deep counts.  

Although this is a fine tool for some hitters, it all but takes the bat away from sluggers.  The Brandon Nimmos can prosper from it, while the Amed Rosarios can be hamstrung by it.  

It never should have been a mandate, but a player-by-player protocol.  

But for the ego of Alderson, who cannot help but love the feeling of seeing something that no one else sees, developing sluggers may have developed differently had they not been under the pressure to fulfill this ridiculous mandate. 

Wally Backman had his faults, but he stood up to Alderson and wanted aggressive slugging kids to slug it out with the pitchers.  His refusal to bow before Alderson on this issue was not why he was canned, but it certainly contributed to it.  It is said to have hindered the development of those who have a natural aggression psychologically, at the plate.  Rosario was given a chance to free swing and in AAA, he did.  Yet there was still subtle criticism made to the press about his swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, by Alderson and his mouthpiece, Collins. 

Dom Smith, without such a heavy restriction, given playing time, will give the Mets a genuine status of Rookie of the Year like status and make a nice SS to 1B tandem with Rosario.  

Expect Dom Smith to show up in shape, hungry and just a little bit smarter in 2018. 

Expect to see more long ball while still driving the ball the other way.  He is too smart to fall prey to pulling home runs and killing his average.  

Prediction 

Predictions are fun and interesting to review at the end of the year.  What will a healthy Dom Smith produce in 2018?

I expect Smith to tear up Spring Training and during the year, excel at using all fields. 

25 home runs, 
80 RBIs, 
35 doubles, 
with a nice .270 average over a full season.  

He will be a "steady Eddie" at first, defensively and a "net positive" in the clubhouse, in spite of his age.  

He'll strike out a lot, but as the season progresses, the K rate will drop.  

The only caveat beyond injuries is the personality at the helm.  

Give players like Smith, Rosario and Conforto a tough, no nonsense manager who thinks mediocrity is akin to death, and they will shine.  


up next:  Predictions for:  Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Yoenis Cespedes and...