Reese Kaplan -- Fireman Among the Firestarters

Ah, the bullpen…the bane of many Mets teams’ existence, yet a place where the front office has been reluctant to spend money.  That pattern likely continues next year with the recent acquisition of seven relievers.  They certainly do love their minimum wage options even if they don’t necessarily contribute to winning ballgames.

Towards that end, some of the bargain basement bunch have got to go.  Hansel Robles has been far too homer prone throughout his career and this year his exile to Las Vegas seemed to do nothing to cure that condition.  He’s given up a HR every 6 IP, and to go along with his high number of walks, that’s troublesome.  He is getting people to hit poorly – under .200 against lefties and .231 against righties.  He’s a conundrum. 

Erik Goeddel, recent blurred vision and dizziness problems notwithstanding, has been at best a fill-in capacity reliever who has dealt with various health maladies since his debut in 2014.  Assuming his current problems are not long term, he’s probably in the mix as a career 3.58 ERA reliever, but not at the top of the list for sure.

Josh Smoker’s greatest attributes are his left handedness, his high draft status (in another organization) and his ability to strike people out.  Unfortunately the hitters are teeing off to a .285 BAA and he’s walking 5 per IP.  The left handedness may keep him in the spring training mix, but his role should be far from guaranteed.

Chasen Bradford was never a top reliever prospect but since he’s been up in the majors due to multiple injuries to pitchers, he’s actually done better than expected.  The 27 year old rookie has ROOGY splits – a mere .157 BAA against by right handed batters and an average .261 against lefties.  He’s not pitched much – just 26 innings pitched, but what he’s shown is encouraging to perhaps supplant someone like Goeddel.  His season ERA stands at 3.38. 

 What a wild ride it’s been for 27 year old rookie Paul Sewald.  When he’s been good he’s been very good but when he’s been bad he’s been horrific.  His April stats included a .571 BAA and his September stats are not much better at .455.  In between he was arguably the team’s best right handed middle reliever with impressively high strikeout numbers for a guy without a huge fastball.  Overall he’s at a 4.55 ERA for the season but an impressive 9.9 Ks per 9 IP and very few walks.  I’m sure he’s in the mix, ahead of Robles and Goeddel at this point. 

Jerry Blevins’ option being picked up is a no brainer.  The Mets have no other reliable lefty options and he’s turned in his second straight impressive season for the team after the freak injury that cost him most of 2015.  He was at 2.79 ERA for 2016 and followed that up this year with a 2.79. 

A.J. Ramos was a second tier closer for the Marlins but has taken over for Addison Reed (who, in turn, had taken over for Jeurys Familia).  During the past month he’s held hitters to a .167 BAA and for the Mets he’s turned in a 3.00 ERA while striking out a commanding 12.8 per 9 IP.  He’s earning $6.55 million this year and due for an arbitration increase in 2018 before becoming eligible for free agency in 2019.

Jeurys Familia represents a problem to the Mets.  His return from surgery was rushed and it shows in the dismal results thus far in September.  He’s due to hit arbitration again this year and already earns nearly $7.5 million, so you’d figure given this lost season his increase would be modest at best to perhaps $8.25 million.  That’s a lot of cash for someone who has not demonstrated he’s ready to come back to be the dominant closer he once was, let alone his character issues.  Methinks the huge influx of relief arms this year was partially to open up the possibility of using Familia as a trade chip.  I don’t  necessarily advocate it, but wouldn’t be surprised by it. 

Starters perhaps thrust into the reliever role next season would include Rafael Montero, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and even Zack Wheeler.  Chris Flexen is just 22 and has options so I expect him to start the year in AAA.  Gsellman and Lugo are likely headed to AAA assuming some of the starters return to health.  Montero is the huge wildcard as he’s out of options. 

Jamie Callahan and Jacob Rhame are too soon to tell based upon their tiny samples this year, but the two of them plus newcomer Drew Smith all would figure to be in the mix for the 2018 pen as well.

If you had to pick from among these players, I would go with:

Ramos

Blevins

Sewald

Bradford

Rhame

Callahan

Smith

The more I think about it, the more I feel Familia will be traded.  It’s a classic sell-low situation, but given the paucity of chips in the Mets cupboard, he represents one which could net a decent return of a lefty cost-controlled reliever or an outfielder or a third baseman.  I doubt they go into 2018 with just a single lefty, but they’ve done many other ponderous things during the current regime, so anything is possible.