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9/20/17

Reese Kaplan -- Next Year's $27 Million Bench


Going into the 2018 season the Mets have all kinds of issues to resolve, not the least of which is figuring out how best to allocate their salary budget.  Certain numbers are givens like the $27.5 million allocated to Yoenis Cespedes and his ego.  Others are much more open to debate.

When the season ends the Mets have some hard decisions to make about three players in particular for economic reasons.  If they choose to keep all of them, then the bench is going to cost well in excess of $20 million which seems a very non-­Mets thing to do.




Juan Lagares

At the time his contract was extended after the 2014 season it seemed like a great idea.  He was coming off not only a Gold Glove defensive year, but he hit a solid .281 and the future seemed bright for the former shortstop.  Then his arm troubles developed, his reckless style of play had him on the DL nearly as often as Travis d’Arnaud, and he never built upon what appeared to be a solid offensive start to his career.  The defense and arm issues are definitely resolved, but the man is but a .256 hitter for his career.  If you had sufficient offense elsewhere you could perhaps live with that modest production, but is he worth the $6.5 million he’d due to earn in 2018 and the $9 million in 2019?  Frankly, I don’t think so and I fully expect them to be shopping Lagares aggressively this winter despite having no outfield solutions readily available now that Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce have gone elsewhere and Michael Conforto has gone under the knife.


Nori Aoki

Like the person who buys a painting at a garage sale only to discover it’s an original worth far more than the pocket change it cost, Aoki has been one of those rare scrap heap pickups that has actually worked.  In his time with the Mets he looks like Ichiro the way he sprays the ball all over and works the count.  He’s not a great defensive outfielder, but he’s acceptable.  The problem is he’s in his final year of arbitration this coming season and will likely eclipse the $6 million mark for his salary.  Some people have suggested it’s a no-brainer to retain him next season when he’ll be turning 36 while others feel a Punch and Judy hitter at that age is not a luxury the team can afford.  I can’t see them retaining both Lagares and Aoki at their respective prices since neither would be starting on a good team and that’s a lot of scratch for them to sit on the bench. 

Asdrubal Cabrera

At the end of 2016 everyone was happy for the rare time a free agent acquisition actually produced after joining the Mets.  Unfortunately Cabrera got off to a slow start and his defense at shortstop was Flores-like.  Consequently people started souring on him quickly.  He then did himself no favors by whining and demanding a trade when he felt disrespected when asked to move off of shortstop.  I am guessing it was more his attitude than his production that led to Sandy Alderson not able to acquire more mediocre middle relievers for him before the trade deadline.  Surprisingly, he’s been absolutely on fire in September with a batting average well over .400.  It’s brought his season mark up to a respectable .278 nearly matching last season’s .280 mark albeit with less power.  The Mets can either pick up his $8.5 million option or buy him out for $2 million.  Hence you have another $6.5 million decision to make.  Many are on board with getting either Mike Moustakas, Todd Frazier or Eduardo Nunez to play 3B.  You have to figure Amed Rosario is at SS.  That would make Cabrera a 2nd baseman assuming Wilmer Flores once again rides the bench.  I was pretty clear in my reasoning why they should part ways with Cabrera, but I don’t expect that they will.


Travis d’Arnaud

Kevin Plawecki is rapidly pushing d’Arnaud aside as the primary catcher.  Yes, TdA has more power, but the rest of his game has not developed and his day-to-day hitting has regressed.  Consequently if the season started tomorrow I would expect Plawecki first on the depth chart.  That leads you to question whether or not they want to pay about $2.5 million in arbitration for him to sit on the bench.  With Tomas Nido set to take over at AAA, they may opt for a cheap stopgap journeyman who might cost half as much.  He could be on the trading block as well. 


Jose Reyes

Yes, he’s going to be a free agent but everyone already seems to be on board with the idea of having him around to mentor Amed Rosario next season.  Depending on who is in charge of management, he may find himself starting on one side of him or the other rather than spending his golden years on the bench.  Whichever way the cookie crumbles, the former $16 million per year player is going to receive a $4 million buyout from the Colorado Rockies for 2018.  How much more than that the Mets would have to contribute is anyone’s guess, but I’m thinking something in the $3.5 million range would probably be right. 

So if my math is correct and they go into next season with all of these players on the bench, then you’re looking at an investment of $27 million.  That’s not going to happen if they are indeed serious about making positive changes and about controlling payroll.  However, as the previous off-season taught us, the Mets are very good at doing nothing when it comes to improving the club.  

15 comments:

  1. Morning -

    My spin -

    Lagares or Aoki - pick one

    Cabrera - cut loose

    Reyes - sign for under $4mil

    d'Arnaud - keep to platoon with Plawecki

    As you call know, I consider 2018 a rebuilding year. None of these guys fit into any rebuilding beyond 2018

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  2. Pretty solid breakdown there, Reese.

    I think the Mets opt for Lagares for his defense over Solo, but if they have any doubts on Conforto, both will be back.

    Reyes was awful for 3 months, but the last 2 1/2 months? .300 (60 for 200), 13 doubles 3 triples 8 HR, 20 WALKS, 12 OF 16 in steals, 29 RBIs. $3.5 MM next year is money well spent.

    Cabrera likely back too. Too much of a bargain for Mets at $6.5 million. Save the big spending for 2019. Too many pitching question marks going into 2018 to break the bank. It is clear after last night's 9th and 10th inning pen flop that we need a 100% Familia in pen next season, or we risk a pen disaster.

    Great loss last night...for draft positioning purposes.

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  3. I would go all in on Moustakis or wait til the next offseason to get Machado. Keep Reyes and Have Lagares platoon with Nimmo in Center. I would spend on pitching and even trade Famiglia and Harvey.

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  4. I happen to agree with some other Mack's Mets writers that the 'next' free agent market will determine how great this team is in the future.

    Imagine Machado on third and another big stick in the outfield to play along side a healthy (and focused) Cespedes and Conforto.

    Nido will be pushing at home... Guillorme will be at second... and any comination of Oswalt, Molina, or Flexen could be in the rotation.

    Yeah... I like the anticipation of 2019.

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  5. The first order of business is to get a new GM and manager. But these are the Mets and I wouldn't be surprised to see both Sandy and Collins back next year.

    There are several ways for the Mets to put a competitive team forward in 2018 but it requires money and they are on record about cutting payroll.

    If the Mets were to sign Moustakas/Nunez, Lorenzo Cain and Lance Lynn, they would have a very good team but are the Mets going to spend 40M or more for those players? I don't think so.

    The Mets will try to sign Nunez assuming the RedSox don't lock him up and that he wants to play for a loser organization like the Mets. Lagares / Nimmo will play CF/RF until Conforto is healthy and then platoon in CF. A Lance Lynn or equivalent type and that's about it. The Mets will pick up Cabrera's contract in case that Nunez is not available. So next year lineup will look pretty much like this year.

    The other way would be for the Mets to trade both deGrom and Syndergaard for a boat load of top prospects and start again. But that won't go well with the fans that have been waiting for years for good team.

    Incremental upgrades? Sign Lynn and Cain this year, Machado or Arenado (not sure if he is a FA after 2018) in 2019?

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  6. @Mack -- is your spin what they SHOULD do or what they WILL do?

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  7. We're all forgetting Wright here. Management will go cheap at third telling everyone their gonna see if David can play and of course lose any change at a free agent at the hot corner then fill it in house with Flores, Evans or TJ. Then of course the big question about pitching next year will have to play out and hopefully produce 5 starters from the 23 or so who show up in March. If the pitching returns to pitch to a normal ERA then maybe we'll make a run at a WC spot and the thought of Machado makes sense. If the pitching still sucks then a total rebuild gentlemen. I would certainly think of trading Noah as hopefully his value will be sky high with a return to health and lets face it he's a 5 inning guy anyway so let flip him for some solid prospects.....your thoughts?

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  8. Reese -

    Should.

    Would... bring back Sandy and TC... resign everyone over 30...

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  9. Gary, as always, everything revolves around Wright. Which is Wrong.

    Do we really feel we will be smiling with Mets' off season moves? I think pitching wise there are too many returning injured to expect to cut starters' ERAs from the current 5.00+ to below 4.00 next year. My guess is the team's starters' ERA next year, in total, will be around 4.25. Better. But. Not good enough.

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  10. Reese -

    I try to write about what I would do if I was the Mets GM.

    Writing about what Sandy would do, or does do, is your job :)

    I also try to look ahead regarding the pipeline and give an honest, blunt assessment as to where we stand. Example... I was sold early on Rosario and still think he will be a long term all-star shortstop someday.

    No one... I repeat, no one supported Sandy more than I did on the building of the 2017 rotation. I thought the year would be magical, what with the pitching and the additional seasoned bats (Bruce, Cespedes,Cabrera) added to the team.

    I was wrong for so many reasons, but mostly due to (once again) medical reasons.

    We seem to play this game like we fought the war in Viet Nam. Soldiers were asked to hop into a Huey, flown to some mud pit, told to walk around looking for Charlie all day, and then picked up at night without gaining an inch.

    I still think this all would have worked if everyone stayed healthy, but they didn't and then the plan failed.

    Now, the rotation is in shambles, all the better hitters are gone, and we just don't have the players at the AAA and AA level to make this team a contender for BOTH 2018 and 2019 without going outside the system in seach of new players.

    Here we go again.

    Back on the Huey.

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  11. oh wow... 27 million for the weakest bench...Although Cabrera would only be brought back to start...

    Reyes for 4 million or less yes...
    Lagueres is only 4th OF in my mind but that still can be about 400 at bats... No way i would bring him back at 9 million in 2019... trade him if at all possible.
    Aoki NO WAY... shouldn't be playing now...
    Cabrera only if the plan is to spend big in 2018 Free agent class... Machado PLEASE...
    Nimmo I think should be our Primary OF until Conforto is ready...

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  12. Mack I am not sure I am as sold as you are in Rosario as the Long term answer at SS. (by long term i think 7-10 years)... I think he is the next 2-3 year answer... But i think once his body fills in he may need to move and guys like Gimenez or others may be more likely option. but that's like dog years for the mets...

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  13. Eddie -

    Either way, we seem stacked at SS...

    Rosario... Gimenez... Guerrero... Mauricio

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  14. I hope we can add Guerrero and Mauricio to that list...
    I remember when a Kid Named Hernandez was thought of higher than Gimenez and signed around the same time...

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  15. Sounds like a good problem to have. You can always switch Rosario to 2B if Gimenez turns out to be better shortstop.

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