Reese Kaplan -- Pulling the Trigger on Risky Trades

Back in the day when the Mets were facing innumerable and seemingly insurmountable problems they extended the contract of their young superstar, David Wright.  No one could have predicted how his health would betray him, but the fact remains it was a questionable business decision given the alternative of trading him to replenish the farm with prospects and saving the $138 million they committed to paying him.  I bring this up not to beat a dead horse but because the parallel situation is evolving right now as the Mets face pitchers approaching that pivotal point in their careers when you have to decide whether to lock them up long term or to trade them away for prospects.

There have been rumblings around the media that the Mets should consider shopping Jacob de Grom and perhaps Noah Syndergaard to accelerate the rebuilding process.  For purposes of these hypothetical transactions let’s leave Matt Harvey out of the equation as he has pretty much no value until he heals completely. 

There have been many recent cases of young star pitchers traded perhaps too soon.  Sometimes the rationale is that you’re selling high on a player coming off a terrific year.  Sometimes it’s the old Branch Rickey thing about trade ‘em a year too soon rather than a year too late (as is the case of pending free agents).  Sometimes you want to get out from under say a catcher who has just turned 30 and is likely to decline rapidly. Often it is simply about the money.  Oakland and Montreal seemed to make it a business model to develop players until they were about to become expensive and then trade them for whatever they could get.

In general, when a team trades away a young, star quality pitcher the results have not been good.  Let’s take a look at a few of these types of transactions:

Tom Seaver – As a Mets media venue, you almost have to start with Tom Seave who, although aged 32, still had several years of quality pitching ahead of him.  He was obviously in the money category as justification for the Midnight Massacre trade.  If you can get past the fact that he was “The Franchise”, the Mets did get an interesting return.  Pat Zachry had been co-holder of Rookie of the Year honors, Steve Henderson was a Rookie of the Year candidate, Doug Flynn was a 2^nd baseman in the mold of shortstops like Bud Harrelson whose stellar defense outshined mediocre offense.  Only Dan Norman didn’t amount to much of anything.  Still, if you asked 1000 Mets fans about that trade, maybe 1 would concede it wasn’t half bad.  Well, maybe not even 1.

Believe it or not for Mets fans it could be worse.  Suppose you traded away outfielder Leroy Stanton, pitcher Don Rose, catcher Francisco Estrada and a hard throwing young pitcher to land All Star 3^rd baseman?  That doesn’t sound half bad until you fill in the names Nolan Ryan and Jim Fregosi.  Double ugh!

A former Met was traded twice as a young pitcher – once from the Dodgers for 2^nd baseman Delino Deshields and then later from the Expos for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas, Jr.  I think in both cases the Dodgers and Expos would wish they had instead held onto Pedro Martinez.

One Met trade that probably would have worked out as even or perhaps in the team’s favor was when they traded David Cone to the Toronto Blue Jays for 2^nd baseman Jeff Kent and outfielder Ryan Thompson.  Yes, Cone did eventually win a Cy Young Award upon his return to Kansas City, but Jeff Kent won an MVP while playing for the Giants.  (Of course, it’s not a total bust of a return for the Mets as they, ahem, wisely parlayed Jeff Kent and Jose Vizcaino for the immortal Alvaro Espinosa and a prematurely washed-up Carlos Baerga.   

Personality conflicts with the manager or owner can precipitate a trade and that was the case that saw young Steve Carlton shipped to Philadelphia for Rick Wise.  The former Phillie had a respectable career from that point forward, going 113-105 with a 3.74 ERA.  Carlton, of course, went 252-181 with a 3.22 ERA for the remainder of his career while winning four Cy Young awards.    

No list of dubious trades could be complete without the Big Unit, Randy Johnson.  The first time around the Mariners traded homegrown Mark Langston and Mike Campbell to Montreal for Johnson, Gene Harris and Brian Holman.  That’s one for sure that the Expos would like a do-over.  Then the Mariners thought they could peddle the big guy to Houston where they received three minor leaguers – Freddy Garcia, John Halama and Carlos Guillen.  Guillen was the best of the three and Halama had a long but mediocre career.  .

The Baltimore Orioles never quite got out of Jake Arrieta what they had hoped and sent him along with reliever Pedro Strop to the Cubbies for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger.  Ouch. 

The Milwaukee Brewers once decided it was worth a roll of the dice to trade pitcher Zack Greinke to the Angels for infield prospect Jean Segura and two other warm bodies.  Segura turned out to be a pretty solid player but Greinke was one of the top five pitchers in baseball. 

One that might make the Mets fans feel a little better about their front office personnel is the Tampa Bay Rays trade of David Price to Toronto for Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt.  Phew! 

Finally, one last stinker – the Chicago White Sox traded perennial All Star Chris Sale for a package including Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Basabe and Victor Diaz.  All Sale has done is lead the Red Sox with a 17-7 record and a 2.75 ERA.  It may be too soon to call this one a clear cut disaster, but Moncada being the centerpiece of the trade hasn’t helped much by batting just .236 for the White Sox (though he is just 22 years old). 

Yes, trading de Grom and/or Syndergaard could bring back 3-4 top level prospects, but it’s always a crap shoot.  After all, when the Red Sox needed relief help they thought they solved the problem when they gave away some minor leaguer named Bagwell to the Astros for 37 year old Larry.Anderson.  Or then there’s the time the Tigers needed a veteran pitcher and the Braves sacrificed Doyle Alexander for a guy named Smoltz.

Considering the Mets track record in trades, you’d probably be very afraid to pull the trigger on such a deal.  There are not too many Neil Allen for Keith Hernandez type stories in the win column.